685
FXUS65 KPUB 212319
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
419 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues in the short term.

- Above normal temperatures with dry and windy conditions are
  expected for Saturday.

- A period of prolonged light to moderate snowfall is expected
  over the high country for Sunday through around the middle of
  next week.

- Periods of rain, snow, and rain/snow mix will be possible
  across the plains early next week, with increasing chances
  through the middle of next week, which could bring potential
  impacts for Holiday travel.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Currently...

Besides a few cirrus moving across the region, skies were clear.
Temps across the region warmest along the banana belt region, with
temps in the 50 and 60s. Farther east, especially in snow covered
areas, were in the 40s. 40s were also noted in the larger
valleys.

Next 24 hours...

Mid level ridging will dominate over the region. With warmer air
moving aloft, temps will be on the increase tomorrow, with 60s
becoming a bit more widespread over the plains, except in snow
covered areas where 50s will dominate. Valleys will be in the
40s to around 50. Skies will continue to be clear. As for mins
tonight, warmest temps will continue along the mtns/plains
interface, with readings in the 30s over most of these regions.
20s elsewhere over the plains, in the San Luis Valleys, temps in
the 10s are anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Friday Night through Saturday..

Our flow aloft transitions and increases out of the southwest
throughout Saturday, as a low begins to build over the Pacific
Northwest. This will mean warmer overnight low temperatures for
Friday night, especially through the banana belt region, where
downsloping winds will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. We
remain in the right exit region of the jet throughout the day on
Saturday, which will allow for warmer daytime highs. Most of our
plains look to warm well into the 60s, with mountain valleys warming
into the 50s, and higher terrain locations reaching into the 40s.
These temperatures are around 9 to 12 degrees warmer than normal for
our plains, though we are still at least 6 degrees or so shy of any
records. Precipitation is not expected on Saturday, though cloud
cover will likely begin to increase ahead of the next approaching
system. Though mid and upper-level moisture will begin to increase,
low-level moisture will still be lacking, which will lead to
relative humidity values in the mid to upper teens in some places.
With 45 mph wind gusts over the higher terrain and 35 mph gap flow
winds, it will be possible to see some critical meteorological fire
weather on Saturday, especially over our southern Sangres and our
gap flows through Huerfano, Pueblo and southern El Paso
counties. That said, with all of the recent snowfall in these
areas, fire weather highlights are not expected since fuels will
not be conducive for fire spread.

Sunday through Tuesday..

Models continue to bring multiple rounds of shortwave energy and
cold fronts through our region from Sunday through Tuesday next
week. The timing of these waves will make all the difference in our
snow forecasts for this period. Models bring our first cold front
across the plains Sunday night, which looks to spread snow and
rain/snow chances into the Pikes Peak region for Sunday evening into
the early morning hours of Monday. At this time, accumulation
appears unlikely for lower elevations. Behind the front, we look
to drop back into the 40s for highs, and remain mostly dry
across the plains for Monday. Lulls in mountain snows can be
expected between waves, though it seems that at least light snow
will be fairly continuous across the Continental Divide for
Sunday through Tuesday. Higher elevations of the western Sawatch
and the San Juans will likely see 1 to 2 feet of snowfall from
Sunday through Thursday.

Wednesday Onwards..

Much is uncertain for the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe, which
could impact Holiday travel. The EC and the GFS deterministic
outputs seem to have come together a bit more, with both
depicting an open low tracking across Colorado from Wednesday
through early Thursday. Though the solutions are coming in line
a bit, there are still varying degrees of potential impacts
possible. At this time, it seems likely (60-70%) that we will
see cooler temperatures, and the potential for rain, snow, or
rain/snow mix across the area through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 419 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Upper level ridging building across the Rockies will keep VFR
conditions and generally light diurnal wind regimes at COS, PUB
and ALS over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MW