783
FXUS65 KPUB 240002
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
502 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quick moving system will bring a period of higher elevation snow
  and lower elevation rain into tonight.

- Warmer and Drier Monday.

- Cooler and potentially unsettled Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Dry and seasonable Thanksgiving into Friday, then possibly
  QUITE COLD and unsettled next weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating a
distinct circulation across the southern San Luis Valley as of 1 pm,
with waa showers and embedded thunderstorms lifting out across the
far southeast plains attm, as deformation banded showers continue to
fill in across the San Luis Valley, the Upper Arkansas River Valley,
the southeast mountains and the I-25 Corridor at this time.

Latest model data in good agreement of said upper circulation
lifting out over La Junta this evening, which then continues into
west central Kansas overnight. The projected movement of this system
will continue to spread deformation banded precipitation across south
central and southeast Colorado through the evening, with wrap around
precipitation possible across the northern portions of the southeast
plains into the overnight hours, with clearing skies from northwest
to southeast through early Monday morning. Current snow levels
around 8000 to 9000 feet lower to around 7000 feet overnight, with
the potential for snow down to 6000 feet in heavier bands.

With the projected movement of the this system, we have extended the
the winter weather advisories across the eastern San Juan and La
Garita mountains through 11 pm, with an additional 2 to 6 inches
expected, greatest across the east and northeastern facing slopes.
We and issued a new winter weather advisory for the higher
elevations of the Wet Mountains to go along with the current
advisories for the higher elevations of Sangres, with 5 to 10 inches
possible through 11 pm. Could also see 1 to locally 3 inches of snow
across portions of the San Luis Valley into the Wet Mountain Valley
and the Mid and Upper portions of the Arkansas River Valley. We have
also kept the winter weather advisory for the top of Pikes Peak with
4 to 8 inches possible. 2 to 4 inches remain possible across the
rest of the Rampart Range, with 1 to locally 3 inches possible along
and south of the Palmer Dvd, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.
With that said, not expecting much in the way of travel impacts for
tonight into Monday morning across the lower elevations, with slushy
and briefly snowpacked roads over the higher mountain passes.

Overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 30s across the
plains, with teens and 20s across the higher terrain. Highs tomorrow
look to warm back to at and slightly above seasonal levels in the
50s to lower 60s across the plains, and mainly in the 30s and 40s
across the higher terrain, under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

For Tuesday and Wednesday, another strong short wave with some
cold air with it will move east-southeast to our north. This
will bring a cold front down with it and much cooler weather
will move into the region Tue and Wed. It will be mainly dry,
but we will see some on and off snow showers over the central
mtns.

For THU and FRI, ridging builds across the region again and it
will be seasonable an dry.

Next weekend into the following week looks possibly quite unsettled
and turning much colder with some wintry weather finally affecting
the region. It is still too early to know what (if any) impacts
there will be, but confidence is increasing that, at minimum, it
will be getting much colder, and, at worst, possibly quite wintry.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 441 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

At KCOS, showers continue this evening, with MVFR/tempo IFR
cigs/vis until 03z, then vcsh with gradually improving cigs
03z-05z as downslope north winds strengthen. Precip chance ends
by 08z, with clearing skies and VFR conditions through the day
on Mon, as north winds persist.

At KPUB, showers continue this evening, with periods of IFR
conditions under heaver showers until 04z. Vcsh with gradually
improving cigs 04z-08z as downslope north winds strengthen.
Precip chance ends by 08z, with clearing skies and VFR
conditions through the day on Mon. North winds overnight and
through the first half of the day Mon will shift to e-se upslope
after 21z.

At KALS, still a risk of IFR conditions this evening, as low
cigs and snow are nearby as of 00z, so will include a tempo
group with low stratus and snow showers from 00z-04z. Precip
ends after 04z, though potential for IFR cigs/vis in stratus/fog
develops 08z-16z as higher clouds clear. Fog lifts 16z-18z,
with VFR conditions Mon afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ066-068-073-075-080-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN