279
FXUS65 KPUB 060207
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
807 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storm risk continues across the plains
  through the evening.

- Scattered showers and storms again on Friday, with some
  strong to severe storms possible.

- Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to southern
  Colorado late this weekend through the end of the period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Quick update to grids to allow the severe thunderstorm watch for
the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains expire and replace the
tornado watch with a new severe thunderstorm watch until 1 AM
for the far eastern counties. Activity is expected to congeal
into one or more clusters as it moves into KS and OK with
damaging winds and hail the primary threat. Activity should
clear the eastern border by 10 or 11 PM which may allow for an
earlier cancellation. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Severe risk continues this afternoon into the evening, with the
current Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches still very much
valid at this time. Intensity of thunderstorm has currently
come down, though coverage of these storms continues to increase
especially across the Pikes Peak region. This area along with
areas across the far southeast plains will likely continue to
note additional development through the afternoon and early
evening hours. Strong focus via surface trough/boundaries and
aided in this development today and will continue to do so,
especially as well defined short wave energy pushes overhead.

For the Pikes Peak region, the I-52 corridor, and areas just to
the east of the I-25 corridor, the risk of severe storms
remains as steep lapse rates, CAPE up to 1000-1500 j/kg and bulk
shear of 30- 35kt are still in place. However, latest RAP
analysis is showing stability increasing in this area, which
makes sense given the persistent precip development so far
today. If this continues, could see the coverage of any stronger
storm development stay low. For the southeast plains, the
strongest development has shifted more into KS though there
still are some cells developing along that boundary. While the
risk of additional severe storms may be more isolated in these
areas this afternoon, think the risk of storms capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two
remain possible. As the wave pushes overhead, should see 700mb
flow increase along with the current ongoing WAA. As this
occurs, should see additional development on this boundary and
even further to the south along an additional trough axis near
the CO/KS border. Highest values of instability and shear remain
in this area, which will again support all hazards. Latest RAP
analysis shows highest sig tor and sig hail values in this
location, which short term guidance shows increasing through the
remaining afternoon/evening. Again, given these trends, will
continue to message the continued risk of severe storms.

Coverage and intensity of storms will wane into the evening
hours, but do think at least an isolated severe storm will
remain possible over the southeast plains. Expect a similar
pattern along with similar strong to severe storm risks,
especially as moisture rich air remains situated across southern
Colorado. This will help keep the instability axis in place and
if not even further to the west into the I-25 corridor. This
would bring the risk of strong to severe storms back to most of
south central and southeast Colorado Friday afternoon into the
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Over the weekend, deep upper low develops over the upper
Midwest, while upper level ridge builds over the wrn U.S. With
slow build in mid level heights and subsidence behind departing
upper trough, Saturday still looks like a down day for
convection, as both wind shear and deep instability will be
lacking, and many models/ensembles show only isolated tsra
coverage Sat afternoon/evening. On Sun, return of southeast
upslope flow behind a cold front suggests increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances, especially southeast mountains and
plains. For Mon/Tue/Wed, northwest flow aloft gradually
transitions back to wly as upper level ridge migrates through
the Rockies. Pattern would suggest a continuation of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms through the period, with
mountain convection during the day, moving e-se across the
plains each evening. Building heights/temps under the ridge
should boost temperatures back to near seasonal averages, with a
few spots on the plains around 90f by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

TSRA should clear to the east of the TAF sites by 01Z with a couple hours of gusty
northerly winds at KCOS and KPUB through 02-03z.  KALS more likely to see gusty
winds near high based showers through 01z before winds become light and variable
overnight.  There is the potential for MVFR to IFR stratus and fog at KCOS and KPUB
after 10-11z for both terminals, with lowest cigs and vis at KCOS.  Cigs should lift
and break around 16z with a return to VFR conditions by 18z.  There will be a better
chance for TSRA at KCOS and KPUB Friday afternoon with the potential for large hail
and damaging winds if storms make a direct hit.  Will include a Prob30 for both terminals
after 21z.  Lower storm chances at KALS leads to more uncertainty and will leave -TSRA
out of the TAF for now and let later shifts re-assess.  Gusty winds would be the primary
concern for KALS with any storms in the vicinity. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...