718
FXUS65 KPUB 081814
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1114 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Closed low over west central NM will move will pivot northeast
  and will be located over the CO/KS/OK border by sunset today,
  with low lifting generally north tonight.

- Region will be in very favorable area of strong upward
  vertical motion producing abundant precip, mostly snow.
  Another foot+ of snow likely over Raton Mesa/S mtns.

- Rain/Snow line will be over far eastern plains, but exact
  location difficult to determine due to strong lift.

- Snow comes to an end from south to north Saturday morning

- Below normal temperatures persist through at least the first half
  of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

Rain/snow line on the plains beginning to creep slowly westward
at mid-morning, as KLAA and some obs in ern Baca County
indicate a rain/snow mix. Farther west, still all snow, though
temps in the 32f-34f range were keeping main roads mostly
wet/slushy, especially around Pueblo/Colorado Springs. Starting
to see north winds increase in a few spots near the KS border as
surface low deepens over wrn TX, though impacts limited by the
fact that strongest winds were occurring where precip has
changed to rain/snow mix. For today, forecast remains mostly on
track with periods of heavy snow continuing, especially along
and east of the mountains. Problem area has been the San Luis
Valley, where snow has been slow to develop, and with 12z data
suggesting only light accums for the remainder of the day, may
need to end highlights here with the new forecast this
afternoon. On the plains, rain/snow line slowly edges westward
up the Arkansas Valley today, with even a t-storm possible near
the KS border. Locations where roads are still mainly wet this
morning could see some slushy/icy conditions develop this
afternoon as snowfall rates over 1 inch per hour at least
briefly overcome above freezing temps near surface temps.
Increasing winds will produce some blowing/drifting snow and low
visibility at times on the plains this afternoon/evening,
mainly east of I-25, though impacts may be limited by wet/heavy
nature of the snow-pack.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

Currently...

Well defined closed low was located over west central NM at this
hours. after a brief lull in precip over plains earlier this
evening, precip was rapidly blossoming over the plains early this AM
and was pushing north-northwestward. Rain/Snow line was likely just
west of a Lamar/Springfield line as both station were reporting rain
with temps in teh 32-34 range. Over the rest of the plains temps
were in the 28-32 range.

Today...

Closed low will continue to push northeast today. Overall
orientation of the mid level low was NNE-SSw this morning, but as it
pushes northeast, orientation of low become west to east by this
evening. This will allow for impressive, deep upslope to develop as
the day progresses, and with the cooler air aloft moving overhead,
heavy snow is near certain for nearly all of the plains and
adjacent mtns. Heaviest snow will occur over the greater Raton Mesa
region and eastern slopes of the wets and sangres, and well over a
foot is likely these locations.

Main concerns are twofold with this system: First, how far will the
warm air advect into the plains? Strong warm air advection will
occur, however, intense lift will occur and this lift could cool the
column allowing the precip to be all snow over parts of the far
eastern plains. For now had drawn the accumulating snow line
generally just east of a Eads to Lamar to Springfield line. Areas
east of this line may see all rain while areas just west of this
line may see 6 to 12 inches of snow. There is the potential we may
see a mix of precip over the immediate lower Arkansas Valley region
of the plains (especially from KLHX eastward), especially during the
mid afternoon.

The 2nd concern is the potential for blizzard conditions
developing,. with the main threat areas being Kiowa and Las Animas
counties, and potentially eastern El Paso county. The main factor
against going with blizzard conditions is the fact that the sfc low
really never gets spun up with this system (Sfc low is slow to
intensify), so, for now, I do not expect widespread blizzard
conditions to develop at this time, This will have to be watched.

Later this evening, system continues to push northward and a more
west to northwesterly component develops over the plains in the
lower atmosphere, and this should decrease the snow over the southern
sections as the evening progresses, Wrap around precip will develop
over the backside of the low, and expect the central sections of the
southeast plains (areas from eastern El Paso, to La Junta back,  to
Eads) will hold on the snow for a longer period of time, with the
snow decreasing these areas towards sunrise tomorrow.

For the San Luis Valley and San Juans, given the orientation and
movement of this system. The southern and wester side of the valley
floor will see the most snow through this period. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

Saturday..

Models are beginning to come to more of an agreement on where the
low is placed by Saturday morning, with the general consensus being
that it should reside somewhere over northeast Kansas by 6am
Saturday. This will effectively cut off rain and snow chances from
south to north throughout the early morning hours, with most
locations being dry by around 8am at the latest. Light snow looks to
linger into the late morning for the Palmer Divide, Teller County,
and the central mountains, where an additional inch or so of new snow
can expected Saturday morning. Expect clearing skies and well below
normal temperatures, along with breezy winds behind the departing
system. Daytime highs on Saturday will likely struggle to warm into
the mid 40s across our plains, especially for snow covered areas.
Overnight lows for Saturday night into Sunday morning will be some
of the coldest we`ve seen this season, with most of our plains
dropping into the low 20s and upper teens.

Sunday and Monday..

Our flow aloft becomes more zonal for Sunday and Monday, allowing us
to dry out and warm up slightly, though our daytime highs still look
to remain around 8 to 12 degrees below normal for most locations.
This will mean highs in the mid 40s to low 50s across our plains,
though areas with higher snow amounts from today`s system might
struggle to warm that much on Sunday. Highs look to top out in the
30s for the San Luis Valley, with 50s for the upper Arkansas River
Valley both afternoons. Rain and snow are not expected across the
area either day.

Tuesday Onwards..

Models hint at the passage of another trough through the middle of
next week, though they differ on the placement and amplitude of this
feature. The GFS is less amplified, and keeps the trough mainly
north of us, while other solutions have varying degrees of bringing
a more amplified trough overhead. Either way, we should see chances
for mountain snows returning to the forecast for Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday as this trough passes, along with breezy winds.
Temperatures look to remain below normal for both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Ridging begins to build in late week, which should help
us to warm up closer to normal for daytime high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

A strong winter storm will affect COS, PUB, and ALS through
late tonight around 09Z. KCOS and KPUB will see the highest
impact with steady snow and some blowing snow possible to due to
the 25-30kt wind gusts this afternoon and evening. IFR
conditions will be the prevailing condition at all three TAF
sites overnight due to some heavier bands of snowfall impacting
vis/ceilings, which will push through into tonight. Ceilings
will need to be monitored closely for COS throughout the evening
because they may rise due to some synoptic influences, but
overall, conditions will improve overnight into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ062-
065>068-096-098.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for COZ069>089-
093>095-097-099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...CLOUSE