121
FXUS65 KPUB 252123
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
223 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with near normal temperatures Wednesday and
  Thanksgiving, then above normal temperatures for Friday.

- Incoming pattern change starts Friday night and lasts into
  Monday, with significantly colder temperatures and increasing
  chances for precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Currently...cool conditions have settled across most of southern
Colorado this afternoon. Temperatures range from the 30s to 40s
for the lower elevations. Brisk, north winds continue with gusts
near 30 mph near the Kansas border.

Tonight...broad northwesterly flow aloft will continue through
the overnight period with weak energy moving across southern
Colorado. This will lead to high level cloud cover overnight.
Temperatures will be cold with mid teens to lower 20s by
Wednesday morning. Model guidance is developing areas of fog
across the San Luis Valley overnight, which will produce reduced
visibilities where it can develop.

Wednesday...northwest flow aloft continues as upper ridging
begins to build in from the west. Temperatures look to warm with
lee slope areas in the mid 50s, while the rest of the Plains
sees upper 40s to lower 50s. The cool spot with be the San Luis
Valley with upper 30s for northern portions of the valley, and
mid 40s to the south. Given the weak energy continuing in the
northwest flow a stray snow flurry could be possible over the
Central Mountains north of Leadville, but left the forecast dry
as confidence in any meaningful precipitation is extremely low.
Gusty winds will be present, with gusts in excess of 30 mph
which may produce areas of blowing snow over the Central
Mountains.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Wednesday night through Friday...Dry conditions will persist
through Thanksgiving and into the first half of Friday, as the
dry northwest flow aloft begins to shift on Thu to a more
westerly direction by Friday, ahead of an incoming system out of
the Pacific NW. Seasonal temps are again forecast for
Thanksgiving, then warm to above normal for Friday across the
eastern plains as the westerly flow aloft translates to a
warming downslope flow. There will be an increase in mid and
high level cloudiness on Friday so there may not be much change
to realized temps for the high valleys, and just a slight
increase for the plains. Look for highs on Thanksgiving in the
40s to around 50F for the high valleys, and in the 50s for the
plains. On Fri, expect readings in the 40s for the high valleys,
and 50s to around 60F for the plains.

Friday night through Monday...An approaching system out of the
pacific NW will move into the Rocky Mt region by Friday night, as an
associated surface cold front surges south across the plains. At
this time it looks like there will be just some isolated showers
across the northern half of the forecast area Friday night into
Saturday, and highs on Saturday will only warm into the 30s to
around 40F. The northern stream aloft will keep cool air in place
across the state, and another quick-moving upper disturbance sweeps
across the area Sunday into Monday. This reinforcing blast of Winter
will drop high temps on Sunday by 5 degrees compared to the day
before, then Sunday night will drop into the 5 to 15 degree range
for most spots, followed by a very cold Monday when temps may not
even crack above freezing. as for precipitation chances, snow
potential ramps up across the higher terrain starting Sat night,
then by Mon the temps will be cold enough for some isolated light
snow across the plains. Stay tuned as storm track and strength
develop over the next couple of days. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1006 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through much of the period. Fog will once
again be possible overnight into Wednesday morning with reduced
CIGS and VIS.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the forecast period with
southerly winds near 10 kts into this afternoon, weakening and
shifting easterly this evening into Wednesday morning.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY