819
FXUS65 KPUB 232343
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
443 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds increase tonight and Sunday. Strongest winds will be
  over our Southeast mountains, with some gap flow winds gusting
  onto I-25 through Sunday evening.

- Snow begins over the Continental Divide Sunday afternoon.

- Light snow returns to the mountains Sunday night.

- More widespread precipitation expected Tuesday and Wednesday,
  with impactful snow possible Wednesday.

- Quieter weather returns for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Upper-level jet will begin moving into our area later today and
tonight as an upper low continues to spin over the Pacific
Northwest. Westerly winds will increase across the area, with
persistent strong gusts over our higher terrain. Strongest winds
will be over the Central and Southeast Mountains, with the southern
Sangre de Cristos standing out with the highest gusts. Some previous
model runs had a marginal setup for a mountain wave, but that has
waned somewhat with today`s data. A mountaintop inversion may still
set up for a few hours, but the shear profile isn`t overly
supportive of any gusts worthy of a highlight at this time. Even so,
wind gusts over the southern Sangres, as well as on some of the
eastern slopes, could very well approach 60 mph or so. Blended in
some NBM 90% to reflect this possibility. Gusty winds will also be
possible over parts of I-25, specifically our gap flow areas, with
gusts of 30-40 mph lasting into Sunday afternoon.

Warm temperatures will continue on Sunday, with highs in the 60s
across the plains and in the 40s-50s over the high valleys. Winds
will remain gusty over and near the higher terrain throughout the
afternoon as well, lasting into early evening. Later in the day, an
upper low will translate eastwards along the Canadian border, with
the resulting synoptic shift bringing in enough moisture and energy
to start some snow showers over the Continental Divide. Initial
amounts will vary due to orographic forcing, but as of now Sunday`s
snow accumulations look fairly light, maybe up to an inch or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Sunday Night - Monday: The end of the weekend and start of the new
week will bring relatively quiet weather to much of south central
and southeastern Colorado, other than some snow along the mountains.
Synoptically, a quick moving short wave will push eastward over the
area Sunday night, with more zonal flow developing for Monday.
Forcing, along with Pacific moisture, will increase with the wave
passage Sunday night. Given this, light snow will blossom along the
mountains throughout the night, though mostly along the central
mountains. Then as the zonal flow materializes for Monday, forcing
and moisture will lessen, and most precipitation is expected to
dissipate during the morning hours. With that said though, an
isolated snow shower can`t be ruled out during the day along the
mountains given at least modest orographic forcing persisting.
Otherwise, pockets of low to mid level clouds with relatively light
winds are anticipated, though winds will be a bit breezy late Sunday
evening behind a cold front passage. As for temperatures, Sunday
night will cool to around seasonal values for many thanks to the
cold front passage. Then for Monday, temperatures will stay below
seasonal values due to the cold front passage.

Tuesday - Wednesday: For part of the midweek period, more active
weather makes a return to south central and southeastern Colorado.
Westerly flow will continue, with an embedded shortwave pushing over
the region throughout Wednesday. Orographic forcing will persist,
along with more heightened forcing as the shortwave passes over
Wednesday. In addition, an atmospheric river will extend well inland
and advect over the area, bringing a surge in moisture. With the
heightened forcing, and the rise in moisture, precipitation will
again blossom for portions of the region. The greatest chances of
precipitation will remain along the mountains, especially the
Continental Divide. Heightened precipitation chances become more
widespread Wednesday as the wave pushes over, with chances rising
for the valleys and parts of the plains, especially along the I-25
corridor, where northerly winds behind a cold front will bring
additional forcing. Precipitation along the higher terrain is
expected to be all snow, where as for lower elevations, will start
off as rain and rain/snow mix and transition to all snow during
Wednesday evening. This snow may cause impacts during peak holiday
travel periods before Thanksgiving, especially Wednesday as
precipitation becomes more widespread. Continue to monitor the
forecast for the latest updates and be prepared for the possibility
of inclement weather during travels. Beyond all of that, mostly
cloudy to cloudy days are expected, with relatively light winds,
though breezy conditions will persist along the mountains. As for
temperatures, Tuesday will be the warmest day, with values warming
back to around seasonal values. Temperatures Wednesday will then
fall again, as another cold front is shove southward, cooling much
of the region back to below seasonal values.

Thursday - Friday: For the remainder of the week, quieter weather is
anticipated to prevail for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Flow will become more northwesterly behind the early week weather
systems. Given the lack of major forcing and decreased moisture
content, dry conditions are expected for the region. Otherwise,
light winds and decreasing clouds are anticipated to end off the
week. Temperatures during this timeframe will also start to warm,
though the northwest flow will slow down the warming process. Given
that, much of the area will remain below seasonal values for late
November.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 438 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected this forecast
period, with high level cirrus periodically overhead. Winds will
generally be light during the overnight period. Have maintained
a similar northerly forecast for COS tonight into Sunday
morning, however, it`s possible that the current forecast
winds could be more variable. South southwest winds quickly
increase Sunday morning, with low to mid 20kt gusts likely
through the afternoon hours.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ