574
FXUS65 KPUB 312311
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
511 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 2-3F warmer tomorrow and a bit drier region-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Currently, a few storms were noted over the San Juans of southern
Sangres, otherwise it was dry across the region. As for the short
term forecast, not much change is expected between today and
tomorrow. The main change is it will be 2-3F warmer region-wide and
will be a bit drier. Similar to today, most of the showers tomorrow
will be across the San Juans and southern Sangre De Cristo mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Air mass continues to dry out a bit on Tuesday as mid level nly
flow strengthens slightly. Thunderstorms should remain mostly
isolated and limited to over/near the high terrain, best chances
again over the srn Sangres near the NM border. NBM guidance
continues to run a little too high for pops given the pattern,
and trimmed back chances 5-10 percent at many locations, though
won`t be too surprised if we end up with very little storm
activity Tue/Tue evening. Cold front drops south through the
plains on Wed, though model trends over the past couple days
continue to point toward a weaker front, with less cool air and
moisture than previously expected. At this point, will still go
with at least a modest upturn in storm chances Wed
afternoon/evening as front passes, though have to acknowledge
that at least a few ensemble members and the 31/00z run of the
GFS have trended drier with little precip indicated. Increased
mixing with the front will likely offset low level cold
advection during the day Wed, with max temps similar if not a
degf or two warmer than Tue numbers. Model spread increases Thu-
Sat as many models/ensembles are now mainly dry for Thu as any
cool/moist air retreats on the plains. Secondary cold front
possible late Thu into Fri may then ramp up convective chances
into the weekend, with storms aided by potential mid-level
moisture surge as flow takes on a more sw direction.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through
the next 24 hours. Winds will be light overnight, with northeast
winds 10-12 kts at KCOS and KPUB Monday afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY