739
FXUS65 KPUB 052341
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
441 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions continue Thursday, though a passing
  front will leave colder air close to the Kansas border.

- Passing waves within breezy to windy westerly flow brings periods
  of snow to the central mtns through Saturday.

- Spotty critical fire weather conditions possible across the
  southern I-25 Corridor Friday afternoon.

- Pattern change brings cooler temperatures and increasing snow
  chances into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Today-Thursday...

Other than a few areas close to the CO/KS border, the cold air has
mostly eroded over our area, leaving warm temperatures and largely
clear skies. Looking aloft, a strong jet approaches from the west,
with gusty winds mixing down towards the surface. Main forecast
impact today will be critical fire weather positions, due to gusty
west winds and low humidity. Main areas of concern have not changed
from yesterday, with the Red Flag in effect over our southern plains
through 6pm. Will have to keep an eye on Pueblo County through the
afternoon, though current forecast RH values keep us just above
critical thresholds.

Later today into tonight, a shortwave disturbance will pass aloft,
just ahead of the jet. This will allow for some light snow to spread
over the peaks of the Central Mountains, while sending a cold front
down a bit east of our area. Overnight lows will be in the high
teens to 20s over most of the area, while the banana belt region
remains in the 30s.

For Thursday, the main forecast challenge will be temperatures over
the plains. The cold front will pass through overnight into early
morning, leaving easterly winds advecting the cold air into the
plains. Meanwhile, the upper jet overhead will give us gusty west
flow over the higher terrain. So, at some point over the eastern
plains, cool easterly winds will meet warm westerly downslope.
Models over the last few days have resolved this rather poorly, but
we could see as much as a 10-15 degree difference in highs tomorrow
between I-25 and the KS border. After looking at the new high-res
guidance, models are showing the colder air making it back towards
the I-25 corridor. As such, have lowered high temps for tomorrow by
several degrees. We are now expecting high-40s to low-50s over most
of the plains and valleys, though southern I-25, where the
downsloping is expected to keep things warmer, could climb into the
low-60s. As far as fire weather goes tomorrow, no widespread
concerns are expected, as winds are a bit weaker than today and RH
values are sitting above critical thresholds at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Thursday night-Saturday...Embedded waves within the moderate
westerly flow across the region will bring periods of snow to mainly
the central mountains through the period. This snowfall, combined
with the breezy conditions, could bring hazardous travel conditions
Friday night into Saturday morning, especially north of Cottonwood
Pass. Cool upslope across the plains Thursday night could produce
help produce some patchy fog across the far southeast Plains into
early Friday morning, with latest model data supporting keeping
areas along and east of the lower Arkansas River valley cooler in
the 50s on Friday, whereas areas west of the I-25 Corridor into the
southern I-25 Corridor, where breezy westerly winds will help warm
temperatures back into the 60s. With that said, will need to monitor
the southern I-25 Corridor, where critical fire weather conditions
may again be possible Friday afternoon. A passing front across the
plains will keep highs mainly in the 50s on Saturday, with highs
in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain, save for 50s in the
San Luis Valley.

Sunday-Wednesday...Latest model data supports a pattern change with
a broad upper trough developing across the Northern Tier into the
Rockies, bringing surges of cool Canadian air into the region
through early next week. NBM data latches onto this with highs in
the 30s and 40s Sunday and Monday, cooling into the 20s and 30 by
Tuesday and Wednesday. The cooler temperatures, along with
increasing moisture within passing waves, will bring chances of
generally light snow areawide, with the best chances over and
near the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 440 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours for all three TAF sites. Gusty winds at this start of this TAF
period will steadily decrease heading into the evening hours, with
light, and at times variable, winds overnight and into tomorrow
morning. In addition, minor low level wind shear may develop this
evening into overnight as surface winds lessen, but confidence for
low level wind shear is highest for KALS this evening. Otherwise,
dry conditions with mostly clear skies is anticipated for all three
TAF sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ229-230-
233-237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SIMCOE