461
FXUS65 KPUB 191118
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
518 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued hot with just isolated thunderstorm chances for the
  higher terrain today and Monday.

- Precipitation chances start to increase Tuesday, then moreso
  for Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Currently...A little bit of cloud cover out there, left over from
some late nocturnal convection, otherwise temps are expected to
gradually cool through the overnight with lows in the 40s and 50s
for the high valleys, and 60s across the plains.

Today and Tonight...Upper ridge of high pressure remains in place,
with the high center directly overhead. This will mean another hot
day in store for the region, along with just some isolated afternoon
and evening convection over the higher terrain, with the greatest
chances along the Continental Divide. Due to the spotty nature
expected, flash flooding over area burn scars is not a major concern
today. Plan on highs today in the mid 80s to around 90F for the high
valleys, and 90s to near 100F for the plains. Overnight lows into
Monday morning are forecast to be in the 50s for the high valleys
and 60s across the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Monday...Very similar pattern in place, compared to Sunday. The
upper high directly overhead will produce another very hot day, and
Monday is looking to be the hottest day of the forecast period with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s for the high valleys,
and mid 90s to low 100s for the plains. Forecast grids hint at a
potential need for a Heat Advisory for Monday, but it is really
spotty and would like some newer model input as well as another
forecaster to take a look. There is some spotty critical fire
weather conditions as well cropping up near the Aspen Acres
Fire. There is not enough areal coverage to warrant a highlight
at this time, but have ben in contact with AA IMETs to discuss
this potential. Finally, it will be another day of isolated
convection over the mts, with perhaps a slight increase across
the central mts affecting the Willow Fire area.

Tuesday...Upper ridge axis shifts slightly to the east, which allows
a weak front to drop south across the eastern plains. This shift
also allows a gradual increase in moisture advection up across the
Desert Sw and into western CO. Taken together, the result is NOT
cooler temperatures but at least a slow increase in precipitation
chances across the higher terrain, with isolated showers spilling
over onto the I-25 Corridor through the late afternoon and evening.
Plan on highs in the 80s to around 90F for the high valleys, and 90s
to around 100F for the plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...Long range model trends indicate a
rather strong upper shortwave crossing the Rocky Mt region Wed into
Thu, then the upper ridge builds back overhead for Fri and Sat.
Temps will remain hot, but the chance for showers and thunderstorms
significantly increase starting Wed and continue into the weekend.
As the ridge builds back overhead, it looks like moisture trapped
under the high will recirculate each day, fueling afternoon and
evening activity. The threat of flash flooding over area burn
scars will be on the increase starting Wed. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions can be expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the
next 24 hours. Less convection is expected this afternoon, with
the best coverage along and west of the ContDvd. Winds at the
terminals will again be breezy east to southeast for the
afternoon and evening hours, becoming generally light diurnal
drainage overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW