501
FXUS65 KPUB 011106
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
506 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected along the
  higher terrain and valleys both today and Wednesday.

- Seasonable weather pattern over region, with sctd showers
  mtns.valleys with isolated precip over plains

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Today: Tuesday brings another fairly typical summer day, with
afternoon showers and storms for some, and dry for others. A
messy ridge of high pressure will be in place over the region.
While subsidence will be heightened under this feature, diurnal
upsloping will develop during the afternoon. Given this, and
recycled moisture in place, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to blossom along the higher
terrain during the early to mid afternoon hours, with some
spillage across the valleys by mid to late afternoon. While no
severe storms are expected, a strong storm or two can`t be ruled
out, with frequent lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph,
small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain being the primary
hazards with any stronger storms. Across the plains, dry
conditions are anticipated to prevail. Beyond all of that, clear
skies early will give way to partly to mostly cloudy skies by
late afternoon, with breezy winds around 15 mph expected for the
area, especially across the plains. Looking at temperatures, a
slow warm up is expected, though with much of the area still
remaining slightly below seasonal values. With that said, the
plains will warm into the low 80s to low 90s, the valleys into
the 70s, and the mountains into the 60s.

Tonight: Heading into Tuesday, a relatively quiet stretch is
anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. The
aforementioned ridge will continue to be in place over the area.
With this feature still in place, and diurnal upsloping waning,
any showers or thunderstorms from the day Tuesday are expected
to dissipate by mid to late evening, with dry conditions
prevailing overnight. Otherwise, breezy winds will become light
around 5 mph, with cloudy skies becoming mostly clear by
Wednesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday will fall to around
seasonal values for much of the region, with the plains dropping
into the mid 50s to low 60s, the valleys into the 40s to low
50s, and the mountains into the 30s.

Tomorrow: For midweek, another rinse and repeat kind of day is
expected, with another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. The stubborn, messy, ridge of high pressure will
still be in place over the area. Just like Tuesday, while
subsidence will be heightened under this feature, diurnal
upsloping will become reestablished. This terrain forcing, along
with minor moisture advection northward/recycled moisture in
place, is expected to allow for another day of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to materialize along the
mountains by mid afternoon, with spillage across the valleys
anticipated by mid to late afternoon. Also like Tuesday, no
severe weather is anticipated, though a strong storm or two
can`t be ruled out. The primary hazards from any stronger storms
that do develop would be frequent lightning, wind gusts to
around 50 mph, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain.
Outside of all of that, clear skies early will once again become
partly to mostly cloudy by late afternoon, with winds becoming
breezy around 15-20 mph, particularly across the plains. As for
temperatures, the slow warming trend continues, with values
nearing seasonal values for early July. The plains will rise
into the upper 80s to mid 90s, the valleys into the upper 70s to
mid 80s, and the mountains into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Broad monsoon pattern will continue over the region through
this long term forecast period. This pattern will keep
temperatures around seasonable values over the fcst area.
Overall best chance of precip will continue over the mtns and
valleys with only isolated precip chances over the plains. There
will likely be a bit more enhanced chance of precip over the
mtns on Thursday as a trough to our north moves eastward, and
this will bring some better lift and moisture over the mtns on
this day.

Given the monsoon pattern is becoming established over the
higher terrain, there will be a chance of pockets of heavier
showers which may cause high water issues, especially in burn
scar region and areas that are susceptible to flash flooding.

As for the plains, it looks rather dry. The only chance of some
better chances of precip could be on Friday (4 July) if the
trough moving across to our north can bring down a boundary,
this could increase the convergence over the plains giving us a
slightly better chance of some precip over the lower elevations,
but at this time it does not look favorable. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions are near certain at during the next 24 hours at
all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

A passing convective shower may impact KALS briefly later this
afternoon. -TSRA may be to the west of KCOS late this afternoon.
Any nearby TSRA may bring gusty outflow winds for a brief
period of time, Otherwise diurnal surface wind flow is
anticipated.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...HODANISH