882
FXUS65 KPUB 262053
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
253 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms (one or two strong) possible I-25 corridor
  and southeast plains this evening.

- Windy and warmer on Sunday, with high fire danger many areas.

- Dry and breezy weather continues into Monday leading to Critical
  Fire Weather conditions, especially along and south of Hwy 50.

- Unsettled weather for the middle and end of next week.

- Warmer and drier weather into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Low clouds have cleared at most locations as of 2 pm, with just a
narrow sliver of stratus left along the KS border in Kiowa/Prowers
Counties. Modest instability (CAPE 800-1400 J/KG) has developed on
the plains, especially Las Animas/Baca/srn Pueblo Counties, where
clouds cleared early. Farther west over the mountains, air mass has
dried considerably, and with dewpoints falling off into the teens,
it`s been tough to generate much convective cloudiness, let alone
any actual showers. Winds have increased in the San Luis Valley, and
expect Red Flag Conditions here to persist into the evening before
winds diminish. For late this afternoon and into the evening, models
are in general rather sparse with convection, given lack of any
defined upper short wave and weak capping at many locations. A few
CAMs suggest some storms may develop along the I-25 corridor 3-6 pm
(Pueblo south to Walsenburg), as cap erodes just enough to allow
weak surface convergence to pop convection, though storm coverage
remains isolated as activity pushes east onto the plains. If storms
can develop, low risk of a strong/severe storm given 0-6km shear of
40-50 kts and CAPE near 1000 J/KG. Any convection should fade during
the evening with loss of instability, and will end pops by midnight
all areas. Suspect we`ll see enough of an upslope wind for the
reappearance of fog and low clouds at least along I-25 after
midnight, especially El Paso County.

On Sunday, upper level low lifts northeastward through the Great
Basin, while strong mid/upper level jet rotates northward across
Colorado. Pattern continues to suggest strong winds and high fire
danger across most of southern Colorado as deep mixing develops by
afternoon/persisting into the evening. Will upgrade current Fire
Weather Watch to a warning, keeping the area the same for now. Still
a low risk of high winds (greater than 60 mph) over the San Luis
Valley Sunday afternoon, though confidence is too low (less than 30
percent) for any highlight at this point. Low level moisture will
get shoved eastward during the day, with dryline mixing eastward
past the KS border by late afternoon. Will pull thunderstorm chances
from the eastern plains given eastward shift of moisture and SWODY2
shift of severe risk east of the border. Max temps warmer many
locations, and 80s will make a return to most of the southeast
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Sunday night-Monday night...The Great Basin upper low is progged to
spilt and weaken as it translates across the Rockies, keeping
southern Colorado in dry westerly flow through the day Monday.
Despite cooling from the passing system, there will be likely be
enough mixing to support gusty westerly winds of 20 to 40 mph across
much of southern Colorado to support critical fire weather
conditions once again. With that said, we have issued a Fire Weather
Watch for Fire Wx Zones 224...227-231, and 234-236, where fuels are
deemed critical. The passing system will also bring chances of
showers to mainly the higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd
Sunday night and Monday, with an associated passing front across the
plains late Monday afternoon and evening possibly leading to a few
showers across the Pikes Peak/Palmer Dvd region. Passing system
leads to cooler overnight lows in the 30s across the plains, with
subfreezing temperatures across the Palmer Dvd, and mainly 20s and
30s across the higher terrain.

Tuesday-Saturday...While model data continue to differ on location
of passing systems within a broad upper trough developing across the
Northern Tier and into the Upper Midwest. Data does supports
unsettled weather with at to slightly below seasonal temperatures
across the region for the middle and into the end of next week. Best
chances of showers and embedded thunderstorms, especially over and
near the higher terrain, looks to be Tuesday and again Thursday and
Friday. Warmer and drier southwest flow redevelops across the region
into early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

At KPUB and KCOS, fog has lifted as of 17z, and based on
satellite images, stratus should lift/burn off toward 19z. Did
add a PROB30 group for tsra to KPUB for a few hrs late
afternoon/evening, as several CAMs develop convection near the
terminal 22z-23z. Weak se wind overnight will likely lead to a
return of IFR stratus and fog at both sites after 06z, then VFR
conditions come back by midday Sunday as drier air moves into
the area.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs with a period of gusty (g25-30 kts)
this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ221-224-
226>231-234>236.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ224-227>231-234>236.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN