312
FXUS65 KPUB 042340
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
540 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected across the plains this evening,
  with a couple of strong storms possible.

- Dry conditions prevail for the region Sunday.

- Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler by the time we get to
  Monday.

- Unsettled weather with more seasonable temperatures look to
  remain through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Tonight: Saturday night will bring active weather during the evening
hours, with quiet weather then prevailing overnight for south
central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, a wave will quickly
eject to the northeast over the area during the evening, with
southwesterly flow developing behind it. As this wave passes over, a
surge in forcing is anticipated, along with modest moisture
advection in front of the wave. This forcing and moisture is
expected to allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to
blossom across the eastern plains this evening, with a strong storm
or two possible. With that all said though, as the wave exits and
forcing lessens and drier air starts to filter in behind it, any
precipitation present is anticipated to dissipate by late evening.
Beyond all of that, cloudy skies early will give way to clear skies
as the system exits, with gusty southwesterly winds steadily
lessening overnight and becoming light and variable by Sunday
morning. As for temperatures, a chilly night is expected as cooler
air starts to filter in the region behind the wave. Given this, the
plains will fall into the low 40s to low 50s, with the valleys and
mountains falling into the mid 20s to low 30s.

Tomorrow: For Sunday, quiet weather is anticipated for south central
and southeastern Colorado. Southwesterly will persist over the area
behind the Saturday wave, and while orographic forcing will
continue, it is expected to be less given weaker flow. Along with
that, drier air will continue to advect over the region behind the
wave. With no major forcing and drier air, dry conditions are
expected to prevail for the area. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and
relatively light winds are anticipated. Looking at temperatures, a
more seasonal Fall day is expected, with the plains warming into the
upper 60s to low 80s, the valleys rising into the 60s, and the
mountains reaching into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Sunday Night and Monday..

Overall, the timing of this reinforcing cold front will be the
determining factor in the amount of overnight cloudiness and
potential precipitation we see on our mountain adjacent plains. What
does seem certain is that temperatures will be a few degrees cooler
Sunday night than they are tonight across the area, leading to
another night of subfreezing temperatures in the San Luis Valley.
Gusty northeast to east winds also look to persist through much of
the night, beginning to taper off near sunrise on Monday morning.
Depending again on the timing of the front and the timing of any
clearing behind it, we may also see some very patchy frost along the
Palmer Divide briefly early Monday morning.

Behind that secondary front, our Monday looks to be significantly
cooler than where we`ve been the past several days. Continued
easterly and southeasterly winds on our plains may keep cloudiness
over our mountain adjacent plains through much of the day, though at
this time models are bit uncertain where the best chances for
precipitation may end up. The general consensus seems to bring
another wave past us to the north, keeping the best precip chances
north of us once again, but some models are also showing a shortwave
embedded in the southwesterly flow over our southeast plains riding
up over us by Monday evening, spreading showers across much of our
southeast plains. The interaction between the wave to our north and
the shortwave to our south will determine where the best chances end
up location-wise, but it seems evening and overnight timing are
favored most consistently. The than the uncertainty regarding precip
chances on Monday evening, we have much cooler than normal
temperatures to anticipate. Daytime highs look to top out in the mid
60s for much of the plains, with 50s for the Pikes Peak region and
70s for the San Luis Valley.

Tuesday Onwards..

We look to warm up slowly moving into the middle of the week, as
cloud cover remains overhead much of Tuesday, and flow aloft remains
pretty messy with a trough trying to form out west. This will keep
below normal temperatures over our area for Tuesday, along with
chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of the high country
and portions of our plains for Tuesday as well. Models bring the
trough overhead in pieces throughout Wednesday, with zonal flow
setting up on Thursday as we seem to transition to a ridging pattern
heading into next weekend. For now, decent chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain over the high country for Wednesday, with more
isolated convection still looking possible for our mountains for
Thursday and Friday. Our temperatures look to remain near to
slightly warmer than normal for the Tuesday through Friday period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds and any residual
showers should diminish quickly this evening, with mainly
drainage flows developing after 02z-04z. On Sun, s-sw winds at
KALS may gust to 20 kts after 18z, while at KPUB and KCOS, winds
will take on an e-se component from late morning through the
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN