422
FXUS65 KPUB 040524
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms through this evening, mainly across
  the mountains and valleys.

- Mostly dry for your Fourth of July, with a few showers and
  thunderstorms from the Palmer Divide, to near the Kansas
  border.

- Temperatures will remain warm with mid 80s to mid 90s across
  the region, with increasing monsoonal shower and thunderstorm
  chances Sunday into mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Currently...an upper shortwave trough is currently moving
northeast out of southern Utah this afternoon, with showers and
thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain. This
activity will continue through this afternoon. Temperatures have
warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Plain, with a
couple more degrees of warming expected this afternoon.
Temperatures over the San Luis Valley will top out in the upper
70s to near 80.

Rest of this afternoon and tonight...the upper shortwave is
forecast to eject northeast across western Colorado into
northeast Colorado overnight. Energy associated with the
shortwave will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms
through this evening over the mountains. Areas along the
Continental Divide will see the greatest chances for
thunderstorms into this evening. The main question will be how
far east convection develops. The track of the upper system will
keep the best lift north of the Plains. Moisture is adequate,
with dewpoints along the I-25 corridor in the upper 40s. MLCAPE
is limited, and weak CINH is in place. At this time, have a
feeling most convection will dissipate as it pushes off the
higher terrain this afternoon into the evening. Most high-res
guidance suggests this as well, with isolated activity on the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa. Overnight, a surface low is
forecast to develop on the Plains, sending a cold front south
late tonight. Overnight lows will remain mild with 50s and 60s
across the region.

Friday...the upper shortwave will continue northeast, with flow
aloft shifting northwesterly by the afternoon. At the surface, a
secondary frontal boundary will push south during the morning,
helping to keep flow northeast to easterly on the Plains.
Limited moisture will remain in place across the Plains, with
dewpoints in the mid 40s along the I-25 corridor, and mid 50s
near the Kansas border. Instability looks to be somewhat higher
as well, as temperatures aloft cool slightly, with CAPE values
around 700 j/kg across the Palmer Divide, and slightly higher
near the Kansas border. Embedded energy in the northwest flow
aloft will lead to shower and thunderstorm development by the
afternoon. Favored areas are across the higher terrain, and the
Palmer Divide, southeast into the Plains north of Highway 50.
Stronger storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, lightning,
wind gusts near 50 mph, and hail to half an inch. As storms
approach the Kansas border, they could strengthen to near severe
levels where better instability and shear exists. Dry conditions
will prevail south of Highway 50. Temperatures will remain warm
across the region, with mid 80s to mid 90s for highs.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Friday night...As the upper wave passes to the east, isolated
convection across the Palmer Divide is expected to diminish quickly,
and chances are good for a decent night for holiday
celebrations. Overnight lows will cool into the 40s for the high
valleys, but stay warm across the plains with upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Saturday...Models are indicating a weaker upper shortwave crossing
the Rockies on Sat, though the source of this is much farther north.
It will force a cool front south, not bringing much cooling but will
bring a wind shift. Just some isolated convection across the higher
terrain through the afternoon will shift to the east into the
evening, becoming more scattered and tapping into both increasing
CAPE along the eastern border as well as increasing bulk shear. SPC
has painted a MArginal area along the far eastern CO plains for
potential severe weather. Plan on high temps in the 80s across the
high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...As the upper ridge builds back into the Desert
SW, the high center is forecast to be located along the NM and AZ
border, with scattered convection chances each afternoon and evening
mainly tied to the higher terrain. Maximum temps both days are
expected to be right at seasonal normals.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Center of the upper high moves north
and parks over the Four Corners, providing for drier and
slightly warmer conditions. Afternoon mt convection will be much
more isolated, and high temps will creep up to slightly above
normal.

Thursday...Another upper wave crosses the Rockies, increasing
precipitation chances for all of the area by the evening. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to develop early in
the TAF period and persist through tomorrow evening. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the mountains tomorrow
afternoon, some of which may impact KCOS as they push off the
Ramparts. As for KPUB, dry conditions are expected to prevail,
though an isolated shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out early
to mid afternoon tomorrow. Gusty winds and frequent lightning can be
expected with any more organized convection. Otherwise, mid to high
level clouds will persist through this TAF period, with some
thinning in coverage tomorrow morning.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Variable
winds overnight will slightly increase tomorrow afternoon, though
are expected to remain light and around 10 knots. Otherwise, dry
conditions with periods of mid to high level clouds are anticipated
for this TAF period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...Previous Fcter
AVIATION...SIMCOE