883
FXUS65 KPUB 090156
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
756 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag warning in effect for portions of the region
  tomorrow.

- Severe Thunderstorms possible eastern plains tomorrow with
  LARGE HAIL possible.

- Cooler northwest flow pattern with better chances of showers
  and storms for the weekend into early next week.

- Warming for the middle into the end of next week, with a slow
  increase in daily shower and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Quick update to the forecast grids for expiration of the Heat
Advisory and the Red Flag Warning this evening. Current radar
imagery is clearly showing the cold front surging south across
El Paso County this evening, producing N-NE winds gusting up to
25-30 mph at times. Remainder of forecast looks good at this
time, and a Red Flag Warning remains in place for portions of
the area for tomorrow. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Rest of Today...

Hot and breezy/windy over the region. Red Flag warnings are in
effect for areas where fuels are critical. Winds over the higher
terrain were gusting in the 40 to 50 mph range early this afternoon
with RH at critical values. Over the plains, heat advisories are in
effect, and over these locations temps were already in the 90s with
several areas near 100F. SPC=, for today, included parts of the
plains in a slight for gusty winds and a few high based echoes were
noted over the eastern plains.

This evening...

Relief is on the way! A prefrontal trough will cross over the plains
early this evening with the sfc front moving across the plains
around the midnight hours. Anticipate cooler and moister air moving
into the region after midnight.

Tomorrow...

Front is not anticipated to affect areas west of southern facing
mtns, and it will quite warm, dry with continued windy conditions
over the larger valleys and mtns. Likewise, a red flag warning will
remain in effect over those areas of the higher terrain where fuels
remain critical.

Over the plains, much cooler air will move in, however this air is
expected to become rather unstable tomorrow with favorable shear in
place. This will likely allow for a few severe thunderstorms to
develop, with large damaging hail possible. Soundings over the
plains show straight line hodographs with rather fat CAPE (2000-3000
J/Kg) at mid levels, and this is a classic thermodynamic pattern for
big hail (Storm splits are seen on the HREF guidance indicating the
straight line hodographs). Later in the afternoon into the evening,
hodographs curve nicely in the low levels, and this will increase
the tornado threat over the eastern plains.

For now, introduced SEVERE into the NDFD products, with emphasis on
the large hail potential. SPC has introduced hatched hail over the
region with a 2% tor prob with the 1730 UTC DY2 outlook. We will be
sending out a packet later this afternoon to cover the severe and
fire weather issues over the region for tomorrow.

The storms may linger over the far eastern plains into the early AM
hours of Sunday. /HOdanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Sunday-Monday...Models keep cool northwest flow across the area into
early next week, with secondary energy digging across the Rockies on
Sunday, as upper level ridging builds across the Desert Southwest
and into the Great Basin. The secondary energy digging across the
Rockies will bring in the coolest temperatures of the week for
Sunday and Monday, with continued daily chances of showers and
storms, with the best coverage across the Eastern mtns and plains.

Tuesday-Friday...Upper ridging remains progged to build back and
flatten across the Rockies once again, with temperatures warming
back to above seasonal levels areawide. Ensemble data supports drier
air with PWATs below normal across the area through the middle of
week with a slow increase in available moisture and daily shower and
storm chances into the end of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

KALS: VFR conditions expected through 24 hours. Gusty west winds
will weaken overnight while mid-level clouds slowly clear. Gusty
winds 20-25 knots are expected with increased cloud cover Saturday
afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB: Over the next few hours, between 00Z and about 05Z, a
front will move in from the north. Winds at both terminals will gain
a northwest, then more northerly component, with gusts to around 30
knots possible as cloud cover increases. Winds will weaken by
Saturday morning, though gusty southeast winds will set in across
the area once again by afternoon.

At KCOS, included a PROB30 group Saturday afternoon for potential
showers and storms over the Palmer Divide, as well as gusty outflow
winds.

At KPUB, some of the models have weak showers moving in overnight,
but confidence is not high. If showers do occur, they would be
sparse in coverage, but could result in brief rain and areas of MVFR
cigs for a few hours around 12Z. Included a PROB30 for this
possibility as well.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220-
224.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO