564
FXUS65 KPUB 032334
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
534 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain/snow showers this evening, maybe a brief thunderstorm
  southeast plains into early evening. Showers taper off overnight.

- Lull in precip Friday morning, before rain and snow showers
  quickly redevelop in the afternoon.

- Heavy wet snowfall across the southern mountains into the Raton
  Mesa Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Warmer and drier weather for the late weekend into early next
  week.

- Above seasonal temperatures and increasing fire danger for the middle
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Surface low over sern Colorado this afternoon, while upper level
wave lifts newd along the CO/UT border. Combination of these
features was producing scattered rain and snow (afternoon snow
levels around 6k feet) showers across the region, though in general,
shower coverage has been a little less than forecast, as low level
dry air mass has limited the strength/coverage of precipitation.
Enough low level moisture (dewpoints near 40f) and instability (CAPE
400-600 J/KG) have advected north ahead of the surface low to help
generate scattered tsra over the sern plains, with most activity
remaining relatively close to the KS border at mid-afternoon. A low
end, brief severe storm will be possible this area late this
afternoon, main threat would be wind guts over 60 mph given limited
instability.  For this evening, showers and plains thunderstorms
will continue to lift northward through the area, with most precip
ending/shifting north of the area between sunset/midnight. Any
additional snow accums look spotty and light, generally under 2
inches.

On Friday, main upper trough swings eastward along the U.S./Mexico
border while surface cold front drops through the area during the
day. Upward vertical motion increases across as a result, with
isolated rain/snow showers in the morning becoming more widespread
and intense as we move through the afternoon. Areas along and south
of Highway 50 continue to look most favored for precip, and HRRR
suggests a few thunderstorms are possible as well, mainly along the
surface front over the sern plains in the afternoon. Farther west,
heaviest snow across the mountains will be over the ern San Juans
(new winter wx advisory here for Fri night/Sat), with snowfall
dropping off fairly quickly to the north. Clouds and increasing
precip will keep max temps cool, with maxes on the plains in the low
50s the warmest numbers we`ll see.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Friday night-Saturday...No big changes in the current forecast as
models continue to agree on a broad upper trough translating across
the northern tier as southern stream energy develops a closed upper
low across southwestern New Mexico Friday afternoon. This upper low
then continues to lift out across west central Texas through Saturday
afternoon. Showers will be ongoing over and near the higher terrain
Friday afternoon, with increasing sfc-h7 east to northeast flow behind a
passing cold front, will bring the focus of moderate to heavy snow fall
across the SE Mtns into the southern I-25 Corridor Friday night through
Saturday morning, before precipitation wanes from north to south
through the day Saturday. Latest model data continues to bring higher
confidence of 8 to 14 inches snow across the Southern Sangre de Cristo
Mtns, where a Winter Storm Watch remains in place. With snow totals
coming down slightly across the Eastern San Juans and across the Raton
Mesa and southern I-25 Corridor, we have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for Zone 68, with 5 to 10 inches possible, but have kept the
Winter Storm Watch for the Raton Mesa and southern I-25 Corridor with
the potential of 4 to 8 inches of snow, with the highest amounts
closest to the higher terrain. If current forecast remains true, we
may need to add Winter Weather Advisories further north across the
Northern Sangres and into the Wet Mtns, with 4 to 9 inches possible.
With the continued further south trajectory of the upper low, snow
fall projections and impacts have come down across the Pikes Peak
region, where 2 to 6 inches may be possible, along with 1 to 3 inches
of snow possible across the rest of higher terrain into northern
portions of the I-25 Corridor. Temperatures will be well below
seasonal levels, with highs in the 30s and 40s across the lower
elevations, and mainly in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain
on Saturday.

Sunday-Thursday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build across
the region into early next week, with more westerly flow then progged
through the middle of the work week, with the ridge being flattened by
short waves moving across the Northern Tier. This will allow for warmer
and drier conditions, with temperatures warming back to nearseasonal
through Monday. Warming continues through the rest of the work
week, with a few minor waves within the increasing westerly flow leading
to a few possible mtn showers and increasing fire danger into the end
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the rest of the evening into the
overnight hours. Around 21Z, light snow showers could lower
ceilings and bring along MVFR conditions. Visibility may also
be reduced due to the light snow showers, but impacts to
visibility seem minimal.

KCOS...VFR conditions through the rest of the evening into the
overnight hours. Around 17Z, light snow showers may lower
ceilings and bring along MVFR conditions. There may be some
impacts to visibility and ceilings will lower around 23Z, which
will possibly bring IFR conditions.

KPUB...VFR conditions expected through the majority of the
period. Around 19Z, MVFR conditions may be possible due to
lowered ceilings and light snow at the end of the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ068.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM MDT Saturday
for COZ068.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for COZ074-075.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
afternoon for COZ087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...CLOUSE