727
FXUS65 KPUB 240922
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Uptick in thunderstorms expected today with a few strong to
  severe thunderstorms possible for the southeast mountains and
  adjacent plains with large hail, damaging winds and localized
  flash flooding possible, especially Pikes Peak region.

- Thunderstorms possible again on Wednesday...a few
  strong...though drying will start working into the western
  mountains.

- Most areas dry out for Thursday through Saturday, with another increase
  in showers and storms expected for Sunday into early next
  week.

- Temperatures look to be near to slightly below normal for
  today through Thursday, and slightly above normal for Friday
  and Saturday. Another slight cool down arrives for the Sunday
  into Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

An active subtropical/monsoonish moisture plume will continue to
stream up from the south across CO with weak embedded disturbances
triggering rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  A southerly low
level jet overriding the frontal boundary still hung up just south
of border has been triggering showers and isolated embedded
thunderstorms along and north of highway 50 as of 07z. These will
continue to lift off to the northeast with a bit of a lull in
precipitation expected later this morning.  Higher dew points have
been advecting northward into the San Luis Valley early this morning
where dew points have been climbing into the mid to upper 40s.  Dew
points on the plains remain in the 50s to lower 60s.

With afternoon heating and weak forcing from disturbances within the
moisture plume aloft, widespread showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop over the mountains and valleys around noon before
spreading eastward across the plains during the afternoon and
evening. Sufficient CAPE and shear will be in place for a few strong
to severe storms across the southeast mountains and plains where
mean CAPE values of HREF range from 750-1500 J/kg with highest
values across the Pikes Peak region.  Deep layer shears around 30-40
kts will support supercell development, especially with any initial
development across the Pikes Peak region.  Large hail and damaging
winds will be possible with any of the stronger storms and SPC has a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms with a hatched hail area across
the Pikes Peak region with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
elsewhere across the southeast mountains/plains. Dew points fall off
some along the southern I-25 corridor during the afternoon, and
shear doesn`t look quite as strong, though still can`t rule out a
more pulse type severe storm or two before the CAPE thins out some
during the late afternoon and evening.  Even the mountain areas will
see the potential for at lest some small hail to near 1 inch in
diameter as dew points across the interior valleys remain in the
40s.  With precipitable waters running from 0.75 to over 1.5 inches
across our eastern areas (around 140-near 200% of normal), heavy
rainfall will be a risk with the stronger storms today.  This could
lead to localized flash flooding for susceptible burn scars and/or
urban areas if they are directly impacted. Activity should pull off
to the northeast and diminish through the overnight hours though
with the active moisture plume over the area, can`t rule out some
isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering into the overnight
hours.  Temperatures today will be similar to a few degrees warmer
than yesterday, but still running below climatological normals.

The western U.S. upper trough edges eastward into the Great Basin on
Wednesday which helps to shift the moisture plume eastward.  Some
minor drying pushes into the western areas, but precipitable waters
will still be running around 90 to 150% of normal.  Another round of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the mountains around noon and spread eastward through the afternoon
and evening.  CAPE and shear looks a little lower and weaker for
Wednesday so this may pull back on storm strengths, though still
think a few storms may pulse to near severe hail and wind gusts
levels across the southeast mountains and plains during the
afternoon and evening. Primary concern will be locally heavy
rainfall which may cause flash flooding for more flood prone areas.
Temperatures rebound closer to normal. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Wednesday Night Through Friday..

Showers and thunderstorms look to persist well into the evening and
overnight hours Wednesday night, though chances for severe storms do
drop off rather quickly after sunset. Expect rain and storms to be
ongoing east of I-25 through around 8PM, clearing from west to east
by around 2AM. Overnight lows by Thursday morning look to be near
normal, dipping down into the 50s and low 60s over our plains, and
40s for mountains valleys. Thursday and Friday look to be a bit of a
transitional period, going from southwesterly flow on Thursday to
westerly flow by this weekend. We dry out enough to keep convection
very isolated, but not enough to really be cause for fire weather
concern quite yet, especially given that we are still likely to see
significant precipitation for many areas through today and tomorrow
(Tuesday and Wednesday). Winds also look to remain on the light side
through this period, which will further help to reduce fire weather
concerns. Near normal temperatures can be expected, with Friday
being a few degrees warmer than Thursday. Thunderstorm chances
remain fairly isolated on Thursday, but will be possible across all
of our eastern mountains and plains locations. Continued drying into
Friday will limit coverage of isolated activity even farther, with
best chances of weak isolated convection over the Pikes Peak region
and the eastern mountains.

Saturday Onwards..

Models continue our drying trend into Saturday, keeping isolated
convection mainly tied to the higher terrain. Saturday also looks to
be the warmest day of the period, with highs just a few degrees
warmer than normal for many locations. Most solutions still point
towards another round of shortwave energy and increased
precipitation chances around the Sunday timeframe, as a low builds
off the coast of southern California and we return to very moist
flow heading into the beginning of next week. Highs look to fall
back down to near normal for Sunday through Tuesday, with daily
chances for at least scattered showers and storms across all of
southeast Colorado, to include our mountains, for Sunday through
Tuesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

A round of showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible near
the KCOS terminal between 06z-08z before pushing off to the
northeast leaving MVFR cigs to fill in over both KCOS and KPUB
overnight. Cigs will break Tuesday morning with thunderstorms
developing over the mountains around noon and pushing off into
both terminals in the 21-24z timeframe. Gusty erratic winds up
to 50 kts, hail and brief VFR to MVFR cigs/vis will be possible
with the stronger storms and will keep a Prob30 for TSRA at both
terminals. Thunderstorms should clear out to the east of both
terminals around 00z-01z with VFR cigs lingering into the
evening. Winds will be predominantly southeasterly through the
day tomorrow before wind directions become contaminated by
thunderstorm outflow boundaries from the late afternoon through
early evening.

KALS will also see a good chance for showers and thunderstorms late
tonight and again Tuesday afternoon.  Gusty erratic winds up to 40
kts along with VFR cigs/vis under -TSRA is the most likely scenario
though stronger storms could drop cigs/vis briefly into the MVFR
category.  Thunderstorms should push east of the terminal with BKN
VFR cloudiness lingering through the evening as winds settle into a
more southeast direction overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT