618
FXUS65 KPUB 092127
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
227 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clear and chilly overnight, some patchy fog possible San Luis
  Valley.

- Slightly warmer Sunday with weak downslope flow continuing.

- Quick-moving system to bring some light snow for the
  Continental Divide and increased winds for all on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Currently, upper level low pulling away from the area through
Nebraska at mid-afternoon, with only some lingering snow showers
over the central mountains as of 2pm mst. Despite the massive snow-
pack in place over the area, afternoon temps have been surprisingly
warm, as weak downslope gradient has boosted readings into 40s/low
50s over eastern slopes of the Sangres and Wets, with a mix of
30s/40s elsewhere. In fact, warmest readings have been in locations
where snow is deepest, as Red Creek/Cuchara/Colorado City RAWS sites
have crested 50 degf despite 2-4 feet of snow on the ground.

For tonight, clearing skies most areas will lead to some fog
formation, mainly across the San Luis Valley where winds will be
light. Remaining mountains/valleys will drop to seasonably cold
levels (mainly teens/20s) by early Sunday morning. Over the east
slopes/I-25 corridor, downslope winds will keep readings mild and
most fog at bay, though some patchy ground fog may occur over wind
sheltered locations such the Arkansas River Valley and perhaps along
Fountain Creek. Over the plains, low risk of some ground fog along
the Arkansas River, while winds should stay strong enough south of
the river to keep temps milder and fog at bay. On Sunday, mid level
warming/plentiful sunshine and continued weak downslope gradient
will boost max temps several degf at many locations, though suspect
snow-cover will at least try to hold back the warming, especially in
weakly mixed locations from Trinidad northeast to La Junta. In
general stuck fairly close to the NBM for maxes, as it sits in the
middle of the rather wide range of guidance temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

Sunday night through Monday...Plan on dry conditions, light west
surface winds, and another cold night under mostly clear skies.
Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the teens to near 20F for
the Upper Arkansas River Valley, 5-15 degrees for the San Luis
Valley, and 20s to around 30F for the plains. Areas of fog are
likely across the San Luis Valley as well as portions of the eastern
plains, so included fog wording for one more night. This westerly
zonal flow aloft continues across the Rocky Mt region through
Monday, allowing for continued dry conditions and warmer temps even
though readings should still remain below seasonal normals. Look for
highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s for the high valleys, and upper
40s to mid 50s for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...There is starting to be closer model
agreement on the look of the next feature to affect Colorado, a
quick-moving Pacific trough that will essentially cross the region
in a span of 24 hours. While the EC paints a slightly more southern
track for the incoming trough, overall models indicate isolated to
low-end scattered pops along the Continental Divide late Tue morning
until just after midnight, increased winds through the day ahead of
a cold front, then cold front pushes into eastern CO overnight
making for a cooler Wed. Plan on highs Tue in the 40s for the high
valleys and upper 40s to upper 50s for the plains, then on Wed temps
will warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys, and
40s to near 50F for the plains.

Thursday and Friday...Broad ridge of high pressure starts to push in
from the south and east, producing dry conditions and warming temps
as readings across the eastern plains climb to near normal. The next
low pressure system to affect the region will begin to strengthen
and more onshore across the West Coast, shifting the flow aloft to a
more southwest direction across the Four Corners by Friday and
increasing downslope flow for much of the forecast area. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1051 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs, with winds becoming light
downslope/downvalley overnight into Sun morning. Very low risk
of some patchy ground fog Sun morning along the Arkansas River
near KPUB, though won`t include it the taf yet as downslope
winds argue suggest anything will be briefly/very localized.

AT KALS, VFR today and into this evening, then IFR with low
vis/cigs due to fog after 10z. Fog slowly lifts and conditions
go back VFR after 17z Sun.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN