941
FXUS65 KPUB 071141
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
541 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire Weather Concerns will significantly increase during the
  next 4 days due to hot temps, very dry RH values, and strong
  winds; Strongest Winds TUE and WED.

- Slight cooling end of week, with a chance of some precip this
  weekend.

- 100s likely every day over the lower Ark Rvr Valley over the
  plains

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1214 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Today and Tonight...

100s are expected this afternoon over the lower Arkansas River
Valley from roughly Pueblo east to the KS border. 90s elsewhere over
the plains with mid 80s across the San Luis Valley (SLV).
Probability of rain today is zero to near zeros across the entire
region. Critical fire weather conditions due to a combination of low
humidity values, gusty winds and DRY FUELS are expected over Fremont
and Huerfano counties today. (Note that critical meteorological
conditions will be widespread over all of the mtns and valleys, but
FUELS are NOT critical)

For tonight, main concern is there will be poor humidity recovery
along and just east of the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

It will be hot, dry, and becoming very windy, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday. Meteorological Critical fire weather conditions are
expected to expand east as the week advances. I do expect that the
Rocky Mtn Fuels Status page will be updated during the next day
or two, and fire weather watches and Red Flag Warnings will
likely be needed to those regions which have critical fuel
conditions. The most dangerous days will be Tuesday and
Wednesday as it is expected to get very hot (up to 106 over the
plains) and very windy (20 - 40 mph with gusts to 50 likely,
with stronger winds over the mtns (especially Tuesday)

For later in the week, it will cool off a bit but Critical Fire
weather conditions will still be possible. Longer range
guidance shows indicates it should cool off a bit more with a
chance of precip over the region, especially the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites the next 24 hrs. Some
shallow/weak convection will develop this afternoon, but
activity will be be high based and not likely to produce any
precipitation, though gusty outflow winds will be possible.
Surface winds will become light s-se by mid/late morning, then
turn more w-sw and increase this afternoon, with some gusts
20-25 kts until early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1214 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Meteorological Critical Fire Weather Conditions will become
widespread across the region during this 7 day period. Conditions
will likely get worse each day through mid week, with the greatest
concern occurring on TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY as the strongest winds
will occur these days. Winds these two days will be in the 20 to 40
mph range with gusts to 50. Winds will be stronger in the mtns.

Please Note: at this time, the Rocky Mountain Fuels Page has most of
the mtns and valleys, and part of the plains in the NO
category for critical fuel conditions. The only area in the
higher terrain that is critical as of this AFD is Fremont
county). If the Rocky Mountain Fuels Page is updated and more
areas are deemed to be critical, then the Fire Weather
Watch/Red Flag warning areas will likely need to be expanded.

Humidity recovery at night will be poor, especially mid week.

Later this week critical fire weather conditions will continue, but
it will not be as hot and winds will are expected to be less.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for COZ222-229.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for COZ222-228-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH