036
FXUS65 KPUB 042329
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
529 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy wet snowfall across the southern mountains into the
  Raton Mesa tonight into Saturday morning.

- Dry with temperatures returning to above normal. Winds
  increase late week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has a broad upper
trough translating across the Northern Tier and Rockies at this
time, as a southern stream upper low upper low is spinning across
southeastern Arizona. At the surface, a secondary cold front
associated with the passing northern stream system is pushing south
and west across the southeast plains this afternoon, with breezy
north to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph being realized at this
time. Regional radars are indicating scattered showers developing
over the higher terrain this afternoon, with the best coverage
currently over the eastern mtns.

For tonight and tomorrow, latest model data continues to support
increasing uvv across the region, as the broad trough pushes east
and the southern stream upper low moves into southwestern New Mexico
the evening. These systems continue to push east through the
overnight with uvv waning through the day Saturday, as the southern
stream low pushes into west central Texas through the afternoon.

With that said, there will be increasing coverage of showers over
and near the higher terrain through the evening, with the focus of
moderate to heavy snow developing across the southern mtns,
especially the southern Sangres into the southern I-25 Corridor
tonight, with increasing sfc-h7 east to northeast flow behind the
passing cold front. Precipitation wanes from north to south through
the day Saturday, save for the potential for a few showers across
the ContDvd tomorrow afternoon. Current Winter Storm Warnings for
the southern Sangres and Wets still looks could, with 6 to 12 inches
and locally higher amounts possible across the higher east facing
slopes. Have kept the Winter Storm Warning across the southern I-25
Corridor, though snow fall totals have come down some, with 3 to 8
inches possible, greatest amounts closet to the higher terrain west
of I-25. We did add Winter Weather Advisories to the higher terrain
of the Northern Sangres and the La Garita Mtns, to match the
Advisory with the eastern San Juans, with 4 to 8 inches of snow
possible. We have also kept the Winter Weather Advisory across
eastern Las Animas county, though totals have also come down some,
with 1 to 3 inches possible. Otherwise, snow of 1 to 4 inches could
fall over and near the higher terrain through the day tomorrow, with
the greatest amounts likely across the Wet Mtn Valley.

Low temperatures across the plains tonight will be mainly in the
20s, with single digits and teens across the higher terrain. Highs
on Saturday will remain well below seasonal levels, generally in the
40s across the lower elevations, and mainly in the 20s and 30s
across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Upper low will shift eastward with Sunday a transitional day as dry
conditions return with temperatures rebounding to near normal. North
winds will be breezy across the higher terrain and far eastern
plains behind the departing system.  Otherwise, some models generate
some isolated showers over the higher terrain as afternoon
instability acts on some residual moisture aloft.  GFS may be a
little overdone with this as other models are virtually dry.

Upper ridge translates in for Monday bringing light winds and warmer
temperatures to the region.  Lee trough redevelops, but overall winds
remain fairly light and below critical fire weather thresholds.

Flow aloft transitions to zonal with weak disturbances passing by to
the north through mid week before another ridge builds and moves in
for late week.  The warming trend will continue with the breeziest
day on Wednesday then again on Friday into the weekend. With
afternoon humidity levels flirting with 15% critical thresholds, we
may have some spotty near critical fire weather conditions returning
and becoming more widespread end of next week into next weekend.
-KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Fri Apr 4 2025

KCOS & KPUB: VFR to MVFR cigs expected through the late
evening. There will be a low chance for precipitation to reach
the terminals. VFR mainly through the rest of the TAF period.

KALS: Will see showers over the higher terrain through the rest
of the evening with a passing shower bringing the potential for
brief MVFR/IFR conditions through the late evening and
overnight. VFR conditions will be expected around 16/17Z, and
continue through the rest of the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for COZ066-073.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for COZ068.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT Saturday for COZ074-075-
079-080.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT Saturday for COZ087-088.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT Saturday for COZ094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE/KT
AVIATION...CLOUSE