925
FXUS65 KPUB 170639
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1239 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more active day for thunderstorms over the mountains
  followed by a warming and drying trend over the weekend as
  monsoon moisture gets suppressed westward.

- Return of 100 degree temperatures across the plains likely by Sunday
  along with continued dry conditions.

- Monday now looks like a transition day with thunderstorms increasing
  out west, but remaining hot and dry out east.

- Uptick in thunderstorms possible for most areas by mid week
  as some degree of monsoon moisture returns and cold frontal
  intrusions across the southeast plains bring promise of low
  level moisture return.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Broad upper high centered over the Rockies will dominate the pattern
for Friday with the richer monsoon moisture tap (Precip waters
running 150+ percent of normal) remaining across AZ/UT and
western CO. Today looks fairly similar to yesterday with the
exception of some better moisture return along the Raton Mesa in
the afternoon in southerly flow. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the mountains in the afternoon
before drifting southwestward into the adjacent mountains/valleys
through the afternoon and evening as southern Colorado remains
under light northeasterly steering currents aloft. Heavy
rainfall capable of producing localized flash flooding for burn
scars and areas with susceptible soils will continue to be the
primary risk. This includes Willow fire. Precipitable waters
transitions to around 100% of normal for the southeast
mountains, so thunderstorm coverage may be a little less with a
slightly lower probability (though not 0) for producing flash
flooding. Otherwise, the plains will remain dry again, with the
exception of the Raton Ridge where high res models suggest 50+
dew points advect in from the south with up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE
in place in the afternoon. Have nudged isolated pops northward
into this area, but otherwise, the remainder of the plains will
remain dry.

Showers and thunderstorms simmer down during the evening with
gradual clear overnight.  Didn`t stray too far from model blends,
except to cool some of the cooler valley locations (Rio Grande, San
Luis, and Wet Mountain Valley) where NBM means have been running a
few degrees too warm lately. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper high shifts eastward across WY putting southern CO under
easterly flow aloft under the south side of the upper high
circulation.  This serves to push the monsoon plume westward,
bringing warmer and drier conditions across the forecast area over
the weekend. Precipitable waters decrease to up to 120% of
normal along the Continental Divide, with drier air across the
plains spreading westward into the southeast mountains. This
will bring a downturn in thunderstorm coverage over the weekend,
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains.
The majority of these will be across the central and southwest
mountains with storm motions to the west. The Flash Flood Risk
decreases too by virtue of less thunderstorm coverage, though
there will still be some spotty heavy rains possible along the
Continental Divide. Meanwhile, with H7 temperatures soaring into
the +18 to +20 C range, temperatures could top 100 across the
plains, especially on Sunday.

Upper high shifts southeastward into next week, allowing the eastern
edge of the monsoon plume to shift back eastward into the mountains
with recirculating monsoon moisture gradually spreading around the
northern and eastern side of the upper ridge into the I-25 corridor
and adjacent plains. With more of a northwest component to winds
aloft, this may allow for a few storms to drift off into the
adjacent plains, while also allowing for cool fronts to penetrate
southward into southeast plains by mid week.  Monday moistens out
west, but still looks hot and dry across most of the southeast
plains. A cool Front drops in for Tuesday bringing the
potential for increasing low level moisture and thunderstorm
chances across the plains when precipitable waters finally edge
towards 120% of normal. Highest precipitable waters through the
period will remain out west (up to 150% of normal) across the
southwest and central mountains. Locally heavy rainfall with the
potential for flash flooding will increase again for burn
scars. If low level moisture in easterly upslope flow increases
sufficiently, Aspen Acres and the 24 burn scars may also see an
elevated risk of flash flooding for mid to late week. This also
drops temperatures a few degrees towards more seasonal normals
towards the weeks end. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

At KALS, skies will continue to clear overnight into Fri, with
generally light winds through midday. Prob30 for -tsra returns
after 21z Fri, with again a risk of wind gusts to 40 kts, then
storm threat ends toward 03z.

At KCOS/KPUB...VFR the next 24 hrs as any convection will stay
back west over the mountains. Light drainage winds at both sites
will continuing into late morning Fri, then gusty (g20-25 kts)
e-se winds redevelop after 18z, persisting until 03z Fri
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN