161
FXUS65 KPUB 101857
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1257 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Roller Coaster Temps this period

- Dry rest of today and tomorrow, gradually moistening up Saturday
into early next week.

- Turning cooler and wetter mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For the rest of today...mainly dry all areas and relative cool. Best
chanced for any convection will be down across the southern Sangre
De Cristo mountains eastward to the Trinidad region. One or two of
these storms could be marginally severe.

Friday...Much warmer. Highs will generally be in the mid 90s most of
the plains to upper mid to upper 80s across the valleys. No
measurably precip in anticipated. Spotty critical fire weather
conditions will occur across parts of the region, especially in
the lower elevations of Fremont and Chaffee counties,
northwestern Pueblo county and the Southern San Luis valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Saturday...Another cool front comes down in the morning. Max temp
will fall down into the mid to upper 80s across the plains and
valleys. As for precip, mainly isolated pops across the higher
terrain with one or two showers pushing onto the I-25 corridor during
the early evening.

Sunday, southwesterly flow throughout the column increases. However,
monsoon moisture will be entrained into this flow. Likewise, pops
will increase over the mtns (especially the divide) and temps on the
plains will rise well into the 90s. One or two storms will be
possibe along a lee trough extending from the Kim to Lamar region.
Another area of showers may be possible over the lower elevations of
the Pikes Peak region.

For Monday, moist southwesterly flow continues across the region.
Temps will be a few degrees cooler and there will be a better chance
of showers and storms across all of the region.

Tuesday things get interesting. Statistical guidance along with
deterministic guidance shows the potential for a wetter and much
cooler temps to move into the region. However, there is not
unanimous agreement as there is a large range showing up within the
max temps data for this day (although the overall trend is much
cooler). Additionally, the monsoonal moisture will blend in with the
moisture aloft, and this could lead to a much wetter pattern.

This overall cooler/wetter pattern will last into late week
next week, so we will likely see the potential for a cooler and
wetter pattern from the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be light and
diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH/MW
LONG TERM...HODANISH/MW
AVIATION...HODANISH