487
FXUS65 KPUB 041118
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
518 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple of strong to severe storms will be possible this
  afternoon across far southeast Colorado, with hail larger
  than 2 inches, wind gusts over 60 mph and isolated tornadoes.

- Hot, with near record temperatures and elevated fire weather
  concerns through the work week.

- A slow increase in available moisture and daily showers and storms
  through the work week.

- Cooler with better chances of showers and storms for the weekend
  and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Currently...overall, quiet conditions will prevail across southern
Colorado through sunrise.  Temperatures are mild with mostly 60s
across the Plains and 50s over the San Luis Valley.

Today...upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest will
continue, with upper ridging stretching north across western
Colorado.  This will keep northwesterly flow aloft across eastern
Colorado through this afternoon.  At the surface, low level flow
will increase out of the southeast this afternoon.  This will help
keep moisture pooled east of I-25, where dewpoints will range from
the mid 50s to lower 60s.  Out west, southwesterly flow will build
into the Continental Divide, with drier air spreading east over the
Continental Divide and San Luis Valley.  Humidity values are forecast
to fall under 15 percent.  Spotty elevated fire weather conditions
will be possible over these areas this afternoon, however, winds
will be the limiting factor.

Across the Plains, an embedded upper wave will drop south this
afternoon, and help generate isolated to scattered thunderstorms
south of Highway 50, and east of a Las Animas to Kim line.  Low
level moisture will be in place, along with southeasterly surface
flow.  SBCAPE values are forecast to reach near 3000 k/kg by early
afternoon.  0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 40 kts.  Pretty
much all high-res CAM guidance is developing convection by mid
afternoon over far southeast Colorado, and tracking it due south
through late afternoon to early evening.  Given the parameters, large
hail, in excess of 2 inches will be possible along with damaging
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.  There will also be a tornado threat
with any supercells, with most high-res guidance and HREF helicity
tracks south from Prowers into Baca Counties this afternoon.  While
coverage may only be a couple of cells, ones that do develop will
have the potential to be very intense.  If you live in this area
mentioned above, pay attention to forecast updates heading into this
afternoon!

Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be hot across the
region.  Highs today will top out in the mid 80s to mid 90s across
the lower elevations.

Tonight...upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest will
continue overnight, with the upper ridge axis pushing east into
western Kansas by Tuesday morning.  Convective activity over far
southeast Colorado will track southward into New Mexico and Oklahoma
through 8 to 9 PM.  Overnight, as the upper ridge pushes east, the
southwesterly flow aloft will push drier air eastward into the I-25
corridor by morning.  Continued spotty elevated fire weather
conditions will remain possible across the higher terrain overnight.
Overnight lows will remain mild with 50s to mid 60s across the
Plains, and 40s to 50s across the San Luis Valley.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Tuesday-Thursday...Latest models remain in good agreement of keeping
generally modest westerly flow aloft across the region through the
middle of the work week, with the center of a large upper high remaining
quasi-stationary across central New Mexico, as a few minor short waves
translate across the faster zonal flow across the Northern Tier. This
will keep very dry air (PWATS currently 20-30 percent of normal across
the Great Basin and Desert SW) in place within the modest westerly flow
on Tuesday, with an expected slow increase in available moisture Wednesday
and Thursday, leading to the potential for a few isolated high based
afternoon showers and storms both days, mainly over the higher terrain.

Further east across the far southeast plains, low level moisture may
remain along a thermal/lee trough, though latest sounding data keeps the
area capped with warm air aloft (16C-20C) in place under the ridge.
This will also keep temperatures above seasonal levels and near records
(see climate section) in the 90s to lower 100s across the plains, and
mainly in the 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. NBM temperatures
are slightly cooler than some statistical guidance through out the week,
and will need to monitor the potential need for heat advisories across
portions of the plains. In addition, passing waves through out the week
will bring slight increases in afternoon winds leading to elevated fire
danger, especially along the Continental Divide and into the the San Luis
Valley.

Friday-Monday...Again, latest models are consistent of a stronger wave
translating across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies through
the day Friday, which sends a cold front across Eastern Colorado Friday
night. This will bring in cooler temperatures and better available moisture,
especially across eastern Colorado, for good chances of afternoon showers
and storms as well as the potential for severe weather across the plains
on Saturday. This cooler and wetter pattern, especially for Eastern Colorado,
continues into early next week, with at and below seasonal temperatures and
expected daily chances of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Upper level ridging building across the Rockies will bring in
warm and mainly dry conditions across the area. This will bring
VFR conditions and diurnal wind regimes at COS, PUB and ALS over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Records for           Aug 5,       Aug 6,       Aug 7,       Aug 8
             ALS:   92F (2024),  91F (2023),  90F (1977),  88F (2000)
             COS:   93F (1980),  96F (2021),  97F (1980),  96F (1969)
             PUB:  102F (2022), 104F (1969), 104F (1995), 104F (1969)

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
CLIMATE...MW