293
FXUS65 KPUB 041030
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
330 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonably warm today, with some spotty critical fire
  weather conditions possible.

- Dry weather persists through the extended forecast, with
  spotty elevated critical fire weather conditions possible
  over portions of the I-25 corridor on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

Today and Tonight...

Breezy west flow remains in place aloft today, leading to another
warm and dry day across SE Colorado. Gusty winds will mix down
towards the surface, mainly over the peaks of the mountains but with
some areas along I-25 receiving gap flow. This, combined with dry
downsloping, ambient dry conditions, and clear skies, expect a few
hours of spotty critical fire weather conditions this afternoon,
mainly across portions of the Upper Arkansas and the southern I-25
corridor. Temperatures will also be a fair bit warmer today, with
afternoon highs reaching the 60s in the valleys and the mid-high 70s
over the eastern plains. COS and PUB will hover just a few degrees
below daily record highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

Tomorrow..

After a weak cold frontal passage Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning, we will be left with cooler temperatures for daytime
highs tomorrow under weak zonal flow aloft. Though it will be
several degrees cooler than today (Tuesday), most locations will
still be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for this
time of year. This will mean highs ranging from low 60s across
the Pikes Peak region, to mid and upper 60s for mountain valleys
and the rest of our plains. Skies will be mostly clear. Winds
will be a bit breezy over the Palmer Divide and our far southern
plains, with gusts to 25 mph possible. Precipitation is not
expected.

Wednesday Night and Thursday..

An upper trough weakens and passes to our north Wednesday night into
Thursday. This feature looks to bring an increase in winds as early
as Wednesday night, along with increasing temperatures for Thursday
as downsloping will aid in warming during the daytime hours. With
the system staying to our north and not bringing in much moisture,
most areas look to remain dry with its passage. Our central
mountains may see a few flurries on their highest peaks on Thursday,
but meaningful moisture is not expected at this time. Spotty and
brief elevated fire weather conditions will be possible though,
especially through our typical gap flow areas of eastern Fremont,
southern El Paso, northwestern Pueblo, and Huerfano counties. Most
of the I-25 corridor is likely to see relative humidity values
falling down into the low and mid teens on Thursday. Westerly winds
gusting to around 20 mph can be expected over much of our plains,
with 25 mph gusts periodically through our gap flows and through the
upper and middle Arkansas River Valley. Models bring the trough axis
and a cold front across our region sometime Thursday night.

Friday Onwards..

We remain clear behind the cold front heading into Friday morning,
allowing for cooler temperatures Friday morning and near normal
temperatures Friday afternoon. Northwest flow aloft looks to persist
for the Friday through Sunday period, with the coolest and windiest
day of the extended coming in on Sunday. By early next week, models
bring us under the influence of a developing high to our west,
allowing temperatures to warm back into the slightly warmer than
normal range. At this time, no chances for meaningful precipitation
are expected through this period, and fire weather concerns remain
minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds will remain generally light and diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO