725
FXUS65 KPUB 192327
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
527 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms to linger into the evening,
  especially across the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor.

- Hot temperatures and daily mountain showers/storms will
  continue through Friday.

- A more active weather pattern along with cooler temperatures
  forecast for this weekend and into the upcoming work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Currently...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across
the higher terrain and Pikes Peak region this afternoon, with heavy
rainfall from one slow-moving storm being reported in Monument.
Temps as of 1 PM have warmed into the 80s for the high valleys, and
mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains.

Tonight...Upper high is located over the Four Corners region,
providing for very weak storm motion. Hi-res models are showing
activity lingering late this afternoon and into the evening, with a
focus along the eastern mts and the Pikes Peak/Palmer Divide region.
Given the weak flow aloft, periods of heavy rain will need to be
monitored for potential flash flood threats this evening until
around 8 PM. Activity will greatly diminish with sunset, but still
linger until close to midnight with slightly enhanced CAPE and bulk
shear in place. Plan on overnight low temps tonight around 50F for
the high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...The upper high pressure center
remains the main weather factor for the area, providing for high
temps tomorrow around 5 degrees above normal for most locations as
well as another shot of isolated to low-end scattered convection
through the afternoon and early evening. Activity will once again
fire over the higher terrain, but with a slight shift to the west
for the upper high through the day, models are indicating slightly
less fuel to work with and less shear, with CAPE around 1000 j/kg
and shear at 25 kts. This will mean a bit less activity when it
comes to showers and storms, at least that is the expectation. Any
storms that do develop will likely produce wind gusts up to 45 mph,
as well as cloud to ground lightning and perhaps some small hail.
Expect highs in the 80s for the high valleys and mid 80s to mid 90s
for the plains. Overnight minimum temps will cool into the upper 40s
to around 50F for the high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the
plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The upper-level high will settle over Colorado through Thursday,
giving us a brief period of mostly dry conditions across the
area. Though some isolated-scattereed afternoon convection will
be possible, showers and storms will be fairly weak and confined
to the Continental Divide. Temperatures will remain warm and
steady, with mid-high 90s over the plains and 80s over the high
valleys.

As we move into the end of the work week, the high pressure will
meander just a bit further to the west. Meanwhile, a passing trough
along the Canadian border will send a cold front down into our area,
sometime on Friday. The front will bring more widespread
precipitation to the entire forecast area, while also greatly
cooling down temperatures. Will have to keep an eye on flash
flooding concerns over the higher terrain and other flood-prone
areas, as storms could produce heavy rainfall. Temperatures will
cool down to around seasonal levels, with some guidance keeping
highs this weekend in the 70s-80s across our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds will steadily lessen this evening and become light and
variable overnight, with diurnally driven winds returning tomorrow.
Otherwise, dry conditions with periods of mid to high level clouds
are expected through tomorrow. With that said, there is a very low,
10-15%, chance of showers and weak thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon,
particularly for KALS. Given very low confidence in any direct
impacts to any TAF site, have left out any mention of showers or
thunderstorms in this set of TAFs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE