423
FXUS65 KPUB 212304
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
504 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For Today, scattered storms over CONTDVD region, isold elsewhere.

- Flash flood threat increases CONTDVD tomorrow (WED), with
  isold/sctd storms elsewhere. Continued hot for the plains.

- Flash flood threat increase for all of the burn scars THU and
  FRI. Biggest concern is THU.

- Hot with less POPS for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

For the rest of today, it will continue to be hot over the region
with 100s over the lower Ark Rvr Valley with M/U90s over rest of
plains. 85-90 over the valleys. As for precip, very isold showers
over the plains with isolated storms over the S Mtns/valleys.
Overall best chance of showers will be over the San Juans where
scattered activity is anticipated later this afternoon/early evening.

For tomorrow, with winds will dramatically shift throughout the
column. Winds over the last week or so have been from a deep
easterly component. However the ridge aloft pushes off to the
southeast, and flow becomes southwesterly at all levels for most of
tomorrow. This will push the monsoon plume eastward and we will see
a much better chance of storms across most of the region, especially
along the CONTDVD, the San Luis Valley the Pikes Peak region
and the greater EL Paso county region. Some of the rain with
this activity tomorrow could be heavy. Flash Flooding threat
will increase tomorrow, especially for the willow burn area.

It will continue to be hot across the plains tomorrow and 100s
are likely once again from Pueblo east to the KS border.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday will be our best chance of showers and thunderstorms
as the monsoon flow will be enhanced by a mid level disturbance
in the moderate NW Flow aloft. The Flash flood threat this day
will be high at any of the burn sites, but the Aspen Acres will
especially be under the gun due to the moist unstable upslope
flow which will affect the mtns/plains interface

For Friday, scattered to likely showers and storms will continue
over the mtns and valleys, but the airmass over the plains will
likely be more stable and only isold showers and storms are
expected. The rain could be heavy and burn scar flash flooding
threat will continue. Friday should be the "coolest" day across
the fcst area.

For the weekend...flow aloft weakens. Quite a bit of moisture will
be trapped under the ridge that is fcst to rebuild over the region
and we will see scattered storms will continue over the mtns, but
over the plains it is likely to be dry and it will once again get
quite hot with temps getting well into the 100s over a good part of
the plains.

Next week it will be a bit cooler be a bit cooler with showers and
storms over the mtns/valleys and isold storms plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thunderstorms will be possible at KALS through 01z with gusty
erratic outflow winds up to 35 kts and VFR cigs/vis if they are
impacted. Otherwise, expect dry conditions for the remainder of
the night at all three terminals. There is a low chance for
some VCTS at KCOS this evening, but probabilities look too low
to warrant putting it into the TAF at this point. Otherwise,
southeasterly winds will gust to around 25 kts through 03z
before decreasing through the evening. A better chance for
thunderstorms will come on Wednesday withe PROB30s for both KALS
and KCOS after 21 or 22z. A little lower confidence exists for
KPUB so will leave the mention for thunder out of the TAF for
now. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT