397
FXUS65 KPUB 220939
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued hot today, with isolated thunderstorms possible
  across the higher terrain.

- Cooler and more active weather this weekend and into early
  next week. Showers and storms are expected across the area. Some
  stronger storms and flash flooding concerns will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Currently...satellite imagery shows an upper level high currently
spinning over the Four Corners region, with pockets of mid and high
level clouds across the higher terrain.  Temperatures are mild
across the region with 50s and 60s across the Plains, and 50s over
the San Luis Valley.  Temperatures are forecast to cool a few more
degrees through day break.

Today and tonight...the upper high over the Four Corners region is
forecast to drift westward across Utah through tonight.  This will
put north to northwest flow aloft across Colorado.  Models in good
agreement with an embedded upper vort max tracking southeast from
northwest Colorado, to the southeast, across the Palmer Divide and
into the Plains.  This will lead to shower and thunderstorm
development by early afternoon, with the main focus along the
Continental Divide, into the Pikes Peak Region through this
afternoon.  SBCAPE values are forecast to be in the 500-1000 j/kg
range this afternoon, with southeasterly low level flow keeping
moist air across the Plains.  0-6 km shear is weak today, at around
20 kts.  PWAT values are forecast to increase to near 1 inch by this
afternoon.  Thunderstorms will be capable of producing lightning,
wind gusts near 50 mph and half inch hail, especially across the
Pikes Peak Region.  This activity will spread eastward this evening,
generally dissipating overnight.  Temperatures will once again be
hot across the Plains, with 90s for highs, while the San Luis Valley
will reach the mid to upper 80s.

A cold front is forecast to arrive into the Palmer Divide by early
evening, and track south across the Plains through midnight.  North
winds with gusts near 30 mph will likely accompany the front.  This
will also boost moisture overnight across the Plains, with dewpoints
rising into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees by Saturday morning.
There will also likely be lingering showers across parts of the
Plains overnight, slowly coming to an end by morning.  Overnight
lows will continue to be mild with 50s and 60s across the lower
elevations.

Saturday...the upper level high will continue to spin across the
Intermountain West with another embedded wave dropping south during
the afternoon hours.  This upper wave will be further west with
showers and thunderstorms mainly across the Mountains.  Shear will
be increasing, with 0-6 km shear nearing 40 kts, and CAPE values
rising to near 1500 j/kg Saturday afternoon across the region.
Saturday has the potential to see one or two strong to severe storms
across the Mountains, with large hail near 1 inch in diameter, wind
gusts 50-60 mph and locally heavy rainfall.  Across the Plains,
southeasterly low level flow will help keep moisture pooled across
the Plains, and PWAT values are forecast to increase in excess of 1
inch.  Showers and thunderstorms will likely track off the higher
terrain, and into the I-25 corridor by late afternoon and evening.
Again, a couple of storms could become strong to severe.  Locally
heavy rainfall will be a main threat.  Temperatures will be much
cooler on Saturday, with highs on the Plains in the 70s and 80s.
Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The upper-high over the Four Corners Region will continue pushing to
the south, late this weekend and into early next week. Breezy
northwest winds aloft and embedded energy within the flow will work
to keep our cool and active pattern going through most of the long-
term forecast period. Over the mountains, incoming monsoon moisture
will pair with orographic lift to give us widespread showers and
thunderstorms. PWAT anomalies look to steadily increase Sunday
afternoon and onwards, giving us better moisture, more heavy rain,
and a higher risk of flash flooding. Will have to keep a close eye
on burn scars and other flood-prone areas, but will also need to
monitor areas with excessively saturated soils and low-lying urban
locations.

Meanwhile, models show an increase in jet speed just to our
northeast, with 30-40 knots of shear over the plains Sunday-Tuesday
afternoons. Low-level moisture, instability, and shear should all be
sufficient for some strong to severe storms over portions of the
eastern plains, but will have to narrow down specific impacts when
the high-res/CAMs start picking up on things better. Regardless, the
first half of next week will be on the busy side weather-wise.

Long-range models are in decent agreement on the placement of the
upper high, putting it down near Texas by midweek. This will allow
for a continued influx of monsoon moisture, potentially continuing
this cooler, wetter pattern towards the end of next week. High
temperatures will vary, but should generally stay in the mid 70s-80s
across the forecast area through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions persist this morning at all three terminals
(KALS, KCOS, KPUB). Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
at KALS and KCOS from mid-late afternoon into this evening,
with gusty outflow winds along with briefly reduced CIGS and VIS
possible. Expect thunderstorms to remain north of KPUB through
this evening. A cold front will bring gusty winds to KCOS and
KPUB this evening, then decrease overnight into Saturday
morning. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOZLEY