505
FXUS65 KPUB 300528
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 9 PM this
  evening for the Pikes Peak region, though area burn scars,
  urban centers, and other low lying and flood prone centers
  should also be alert for the potential for the potential for
  excessive rainfall through the rest of this evening.

- The potential for torrential rainfall and Flash Flooding increases
  for tomorrow across the area.

- Drier and hotter for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 341 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Quick update made to expand the Flash Flood watch to include
Pueblo county where radar trends suggest thunderstorm outflows
and an advancing cold front will help congeal thunderstorms into
a cluster which will push eastward with time. Very heavy
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible under
the stronger cells with localized rainfall amounts of up to 4
inches of rainfall possible, perhaps a little more if storms
train over the same area. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Currently..

Showers and thunderstorms have formed all along our mountain ranges,
with scattered to numerous coverage over our eastern mountains and
Teller County. Steering flow is very weak, and storms are barely
moving in most areas. Cu is pushing north over our southern plains
with overcast mid and upper-level cloud cover over the high country.
Temperatures are in the 80s on the plains. Dewpoints are mostly in
the 50s on the plains, with 60 dewpoints to our north that are
expected to keep coming our way behind the cold front that is
currently backing in in across the region. Winds are already due
north across El Paso County.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 9 PM for the Pikes
Peak region this afternoon and this evening. Showers have been
ongoing over Teller County, where portions of the county have
received around 0.3 inches or so of rain as of 1:30 PM. High res
model guidance continues to show numerous showers and thunderstorms
over the region, especially over the Pikes Peak region for the rest
of today and into this evening. Behind the front, dewpoints are
expected to keep climbing. To our north, dewpoints are in the 60s.
Forecast PWATs are above an inch. With weak steering flow, storms
are expected to continue to move very slowly if at all. For this
reason, Flash Flooding is expected to continue to be a concern
through around 9 PM this evening. Most models push convection east
of the I-25 corridor by 9 PM, and further east into Kansas by around
midnight or so at the latest. Temperatures behind the front remain
fairly mild thanks to extensive cloud cover, with much of the plains
remaining the 60s. Many of us will likely start out our Wednesday
with dewpoints in the 60s..

Tomorrow..

Our day two post frontal set up will be even more favorable for
excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially with more
shortwave energy coming through tomorrow. Models bring our winds
around to easterly and southeasterly by late morning, helping to
develop deep, moisture rich upslope, especially along the I-25
corridor and westwards into the mountains/plains interface. Some
areas may end up being stable enough to avoid torrential rainfall,
depending on how cool and cloudy we end up staying throughout the
day, especially along the Palmer Divide. That said, much of the area
is likely to see very heavy rain and very slow moving, training
thunderstorm activity tomorrow. For now, have decided to hold off on
Watch issuance to assess which areas see highest rainfall totals
today and which areas high res guidance suggest highest
probabilities for throughout the day. PWATs look to range anywhere
from 1.0 - 1.4 inches, and storm motions look to be incredibly slow
once again, leading to another day of very high potential for
excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Chances for Flash Flood Watch
issuance remain high (80%), though the question of exact location
for issuance still remains a bit more uncertain at this time. WPC
has included all of our eastern mountains and eastern plains under a
slight risk, which could very well end up being much of the area
that goes into consideration for watch issuance. Other than the
widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms, and the likelihood
of torrential rain along with those storms, expect lots of cloud
cover, along with cooler than normal temperatures. Our plains look
to keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, with low 80s for our mountain
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Minor changes to the extended period, with a slight delay in
drier conditions over the weekend across southern Colorado.

Wednesday night through Friday...several upper level waves will
drift across southern Colorado from mid to late week, each
bringing rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall ot the
area. PWAT values are forecast to remain in excess of an inch
through Friday, and southerly low level surface flow will keep
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Plains. While
cooler, daytime heating will lead to modest instability each
afternoon across the region.

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will be ongoing Wednesday
evening across the Pikes Peak Region, south along the Eastern
Mountains and I-25 corridor. This activity will be spread
eastward across the Plains, with QPF amounts in excess of an
inch possible, especially along the Eastern Mountains into the
I-25 corridor. Rain rates and amounts will likely vary with
individual storms, but localized flash flooding in areas that
have seen heavy rainfall in recent days, urban areas and burn
scars will be most susceptible. On Thursday, expect another
round of heavy rain producing thunderstorms to develop initially
over the Mountains, then spreading east across the Plains
Thursday night. Flash flooding will continue to be a risk, given
multiple rounds of heavy rain. One last day of widespread
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall is forecast on Friday.
Coverage looks to be slightly less, but storms will still be
capable of producing heavy rainfall. During this period, pay
attention to forecast updates, and be prepared for flash
flooding.

Temperatures will be cooler during this period, with 70s and 80s
across the region.

Saturday through Tuesday...upper level ridging is forecast to
build across the Rockies over the weekend into early next week.
PWAT values are forecast to trend downward, helping to limit
shower and thunderstorm coverage along with precipitation
efficiency. One last upper wave will traverse the region on
Saturday, with showers and thunderstorms developing over the
Mountains, then spreading into the adjacent plains. By Sunday
and prevailing into early next week, drier air and lack of upper
level energy moving through the ridge will lead to dry
conditions for much of the region. Residual moisture over the
Mountains could lead to a few shower and thunderstorms, but
overall, conditions look much drier. Temperatures will also be
on the rise for the weekend into early next week. Highs will
reach back into the 90s across the Plains, and 80s for the San
Luis Valley.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions with variable mid and high level
clouds at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. With
monsoonal moisture in place, there is a low chance of seeing
stratus development at the terminals, and with expected passing
clouds overnight, will not include at this time.

Another weak front will move across the plains early Wednesday
morning, with increasing low level moisture within developing
upslope flow, combined with monsoonal moisture within modest
westerly flow aloft, bring good chances of showers and storms
at all 3 taf sites Wednesday afternoon and evening. Will keep
prob30 aft 20Z at all 3 taf sites for now. Storms at the
terminals will bring MVFR and brief IFR conditions in heavy
rain and gusty outflow winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...EHR/MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW