097
FXUS65 KPUB 180533
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight uptick in thunderstorms expected for Monday across
  the southeast plains with gusty outflow winds the primary
  concern.

- Above normal temperatures continue through mid week with
  isolated thunderstorms possible each day.

- Uptick in monsoon moisture returns for late week into next
  weekend bringing a return of more widespread precipitation
  chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Convection today has been much more sparse with initial echoes
firing across the southern Sangre De Cristos, northern slopes of the
Raton Ridge and Baca county as of 19z.  With time, we could see
isolated to low end scattered thunderstorms develop over the Palmer
Divide and across the southeast plains east of La Junta.  Dew points
in the 40s along the I-25 corridor should limit convection to high
based virga/sprinkles with gusty outflow winds.  However as storms
move east and encounter more CAPE near the eastern border, there
could be a few stronger cells capable of brief heavy rain, wind
gusts to near 50 mph and perhaps some brief small hail.  MLCape off
SPC MesoAnalysis shows up to 1000 J/kg near the eastern border.  Dew
points mixing out into the lower 50s quickly diminishes CAPEs
according to modified model soundings, so most likely risks would be
gusty outflow winds.  Activity should pull east into KS by 03z.
Overnight lows should be similar to last nights, and cooled off
interior mountain valleys into the mid 30s to lower 40s given clear
skies and good radiational cooling.

Models advertise a slight uptick in thunderstorms across the
southeast plains on Monday as easterly low level flow advects higher
surface dew points westward and a subtle shortwave ripples through
southwest flow aloft. Storms will still be rather high based with
mean HREF CAPE generally 1000 J/kg or less.  Severe risk looks low,
but some solutions suggest a strengthening low level jet Monday
evening which could keep some thunderstorms going well into the
evening over the far eastern plains. Otherwise, temperatures
look similar to those of today with continued above normal
readings in the 90s across the plains 80s for the valleys and
60s and 70s for the mountain communities.
-KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Monday Night and Tuesday:

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to lingering through
midnight across the far eastern plains with gusty outflow winds
the primary concern.

Tuesday is expected to be the last day for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms before a brief dry spell occurs. The limiting factor
to how strong convection gets will be how much moisture from the
eastern plains is advected towards the plains-mountains interface.
Currently, the majority of guidance has sub 1000 J/kg of CAPE along
the eastern mountains and the I-25 corridor, but the aggressive NAM
has 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE (which I do not believe). Overall,
I think the main hazards will be gusty outflow winds from high
based thunderstorms along the I-25 corridor.

Wednesday through Saturday:

The upper level high sets up over the four corners region of the
desert southwest and begins to advect moisture from the eastern
Pacific / Baja California towards southern Colorado. While we wait
for that moisture to reach Colorado, we`ll have two dry days with
Wednesday and Thursday. The trend has been having an uptick in storms
on Thursday, but the brunt of the moisture will arrive on Friday.
Some persistent signals amongst longer term guidance is suggesting
heavy rain over the mountains and the I-25 corridor on Friday and
Saturday - perhaps this is mountain flash flood event beginning to
show its eyes for the end of next week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24
hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Surface winds are forecast to be diurnal in direction and generally
under 12 kts. Maintained a PROB30 for -TSRA for KCOS between 19z-24z
tomorrow, but didn`t include anything for KPUB, as better storm
chance look to stay north. Gusty outflow winds likely late
afternoon/early evening at KPUB and KCOS, as storms push eastward
through the plains. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...MOORE