139
FXUS65 KPUB 220634
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1234 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watches in effect, today for the Willow burn scar and
Chalk Cliffs areas, tomorrow for the Aspen Acres burn scar.

- Flash flooding threat continues through the end of the week as
showers and storms become more widespread.

- Hot temperatures continue, with a bit less moisture for this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

We will finally see a noticeable shift in our wind pattern across
the region today. As the center of the upper high continues shifting
east and slightly south, winds throughout the column will take on a
southerly to southwesterly component. This will allow for better
monsoon moisture to move east and into the Rockies. By late morning,
precipitation is expected to form across some of the Continental
Divide. Through the rest of the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms
will spread to the rest of the higher terrain as well, with some
pockets of heavy rainfall possible. We will need to keep a close eye
on areas susceptible to flash flooding, mainly the Willow burn area.
Have issued a Flood Watch for the areas surrounding the Willow burn
scar and the Chalk Cliffs. Meanwhile, the plains will be hot and
mostly dry throughout the afternoon, with high temperatures hitting
low triple digits. The higher terrain will stay in the 80s to low-
90s.

This evening into early tonight, a shortwave disturbance will pass
through the flow aloft to our northeast. This will send a cold front
south over the eastern plains overnight into early Thursday morning.
As it goes, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will spread
over the eastern plains, traveling south-southeast and dissipating
early in the morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Thursday...

A shortwave trough will pass through on Thursday, giving us plenty
of forcing for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Greatest
coverage will once again be over the higher terrain, where
widespread precipitation will cause flash flooding concerns across
all of our burn scars and other vulnerable areas. Meanwhile, another
incoming front will spread precip to the eastern plains later in the
day and into the evening hours. This will cause a complex, hazardous
scenario for the Aspen Acres fire, due to a combination of large
scale monsoon moisture over the mountains, and post-frontal
upsloping over the plains. Winds and the placement of heavy rainfall
will be complex over the fire and surrounding areas of the
mountains/plains interface. As such, have issued a Flash Flood
Watch.

Friday...

Activity lessens a bit on Friday, with the high pressure
reorganizing over the Four Corners. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will remain plentiful over the mountains during the afternoon,
meaning another day of moderate to heavy rainfall, but overall the
eastern plains appear more stable, with only some isolated showers
anticipated. Even so, burn scar flash flood concerns will continue.
Meanwhile, temperatures will drop a few degrees, but calling the day
`cooler` may be a bit of a stretch, since we`ll still be seeing mid-
high 90s over the eastern plains and high-80s in the valleys.


This Weekend Onwards...

As the upper high moves overhead, flow weakens aloft. Forcing for
storms will significantly weaken, though recycling monsoon moisture
will be plentiful enough to keep afternoon showers and storms going
over the mountains. Meanwhile, the plains will dry out again, with
triple-digit temperatures returning. Current long-range guidance
suggests a wetter and potentially cooler (or at least less hot)
pattern as we move into next week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Enhanced easterly winds will continue at KCOS and KPUB before
decreasing overnight. Winds will increase out of the southeast
Wednesday afternoon at all three terminals with thunderstorms
developing over the mountains and pushing off into the valleys
and adjacent plains after 21-22z. KALS and KCOS will have the
best chance of -TSRA on station, and will carry this in a prob30
group with gusty outflow winds. Chance for -TSRA at KPUB still
looks low, so will keep it as VCSH for now.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
COZ059>061.
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT