152
FXUS65 KPUB 072022
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
222 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds, stratus and patchy fog will return to the
  southeast plains tonight but erode quicker with a warmer
  temperatures returning for Wednesday.

- Warming and drying conditions will set in through the rest of
  the week, with showers over the higher terrain.

- Wetter conditions still on tap for this weekend, particularly
  over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Stratus has been slow to break across much of the plains this
afternoon and as we loose day time heating easterly upslope flow
will push this back into the lower eastern slopes of the
southeast mountains with clouds bases lowering overnight and
some patchy fog possible in and near the upslope terrain region.
Moisture looks a little more shallow with less upper forcing
expected tonight so think we won`t see as much in the way of
drizzle. Whee we could see some precipitation would be the
southern mountains and southern San Luis Valley this evening as
southerly flow is advecting higher dew points northward and a
cu field is evident across Conejos and Costilla counties. Not
expecting much moisture from these, and have trimmed northern
extent of isolated pops southward quite a bit as odds look less
favorable farther north. Otherwise, should see low temperatures
a little warmer tonight across the southwest mountains and
interior valleys as low level moisture increases. May even see
some low clouds and fog develop towards dawn in the center of
the valley and southwest slopes of the eastern San Juans though
think this will still be fairly patchy in nature for one more
night.

Upper ridge builds for Wednesday and southerly winds increase
through the day. This should help erode stratus across the
plains more quickly tomorrow morning with breezy southerly winds
helping to provide sufficient mixing to bring a return of 70s to
lower 80s for highs. Mountains and interior valleys should be
similar to a degree or two warmer given rising heights aloft.
South to southwesterly flow will continue to advect low level
moisture northward which should yield isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the
southern mountains as a tropical moisture fetch gets tapped.
Will be watching what happens as moisture from the remnants of
hurricane Priscilla continues to spread in from the south.
Precipitable waters well ahead of Priscilla climb to near 150%
of normal in ensembles by Wed afternoon across the eastern San
Juans, so as time goes on, main thunderstorm risks will trend
towards heavy rainfall. -KT


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025


Thursday Onwards...

The warming trend will continue into the latter half of the week,
with the upper ridge continuing to build overhead. High temps will
climb into the mid-80s over the plains, with the area remaining
generally dry outside of some scattered POPs in our western
mountains. As we move into the weekend, the high pressure to our
south will begin pushing more east, while a deep closed low moves
onto the west coast. Meanwhile, the remnants of a tropical cyclone
will push up the western coast of Mexico, injecting more moisture
into the synoptic flow. Beyond this point, model solutions begin to
diverge, handling the evolution of this complex pattern in different
ways. Overall, trends have shown for a cooler, wetter, and generally
more active weather period later this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

MVFR to VFR cigs expected for KCOS and KPUB this afternoon with
cigs lowering back into the IFR to even LIFR range tonight,
especially for KCOS where some patchy fog will be possible
during the early morning hours. Cigs and vis will improve
quickly Wednesday morning with both TAFs expected to see
clearing by 16z.

KALS will see breezy southwest winds pickup in the 19-20z
window. With southerly winds increasing low level moisture
across the San Luis Valley tonight, there will be the potential
for a window of IFR to even LIFR stratus and fog if winds can
decouple long enough early Wednesday morning. Confidence in this
scenario is low so have a tempo for MVFR vis for now. But there
are a few high res model members with LIFR conditions early Wed
morning before winds pick up again in the afternoon and erode
any shallow stratus/fog by mid morning. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT