928
FXUS65 KPUB 121714
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1114 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with 70s and low 80s for highs.

- Strong to severe storms possible, mainly over the Eastern Mountains
  into the I-25 corridor this afternoon and evening, with large
  hail and damaging winds possible.

- Daily afternoon and evening shower and storms are expected
  through the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Currently...an MCV is currently tracking east along Highway 50 near
Lamar, and will continue to shift eastward over through the early
morning hours.  Radar shows rain wrapping around the MCV over the
far Eastern Plains, with a band of isolated showers and
thunderstorms dropping southeast along the New Mexico border.
Temperatures are cool, with mostly 60s across the Plains. Northeast
to easterly flow will develop through morning, with moisture pooling
across the Plains, and low stratus developing along the I-25
corridor by daybreak.

Today...the upper level pattern features an upper high along the
southern California coast, and a longwave trough over the Upper
Midwest.  This will keep southern Colorado in northwesterly flow
aloft.  Models in decent agreement for the setup for strong to
severe storms for this afternoon, with the exception of the NAMNest,
which is a dry outlier, and followed a blend of various CAM
solutions for this afternoon.  At the surface, easterly low level
flow will help keep moisture pooled across the Plains, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s.  Low stratus will likely be
the key player heading into this afternoon.  Expect the low stratus
to break up along the Eastern Mountains, into the I-25 corridor by
late morning, helping to destabilize the atmosphere heading into the
afternoon.  A blend of guidance develops SBCAPE values around 2000-
2200 j/kg along the Eastern Mountains, into the I-25 corridor by
early afternoon.  0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 30 kts, and
weak energy will be dropping southeast across western and central
Colorado today.  Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over
the Central Mountains, and spread southeast into the Eastern
Mountains by midday.  The northwesterly steering flow should allow
for these storms to move off the terrain and into the adjacent
plains this afternoon, where thunderstorms will tap into the deeper
instability.  Thunderstorms over the Eastern Mountains, into the I-
25 corridor could become strong to severe, with 1.5 inch diameter
hail and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.  Lightning and locally
heavy rainfall will also be possible with storms.  East of I-25 will
depend highly on if we clear out.  Cloud cover looks to remain in
place for much of the day, limiting daytime heating and instability.
At this time, areas east of I-25 look to miss out on much of the
convection this afternoon.  But, if the eastern portion of the
Plains clear out, the thunderstorm risk will increase for late
afternoon.  Overall, temperatures today will be much cooler, with
mainly 70s and lower 80s across the Plains.

Tonight...the upper level pattern will remain similar with the
southern California high, and upper trough in the Upper Midwest.  The
embedded upper wave will continue south this evening, moving into
New Mexico overnight.  Flow aloft looks to become more northerly, as
the upper high to the southwest begins to build east.  Showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing during the evening hours, mainly
across the higher terrain, into the I-25 corridor, and tracking
southeast with the departing upper wave.  Any severe thunderstorm
risk looks to diminish after sunset, and end altogether as
convection moves south.  Subsidence behind the departing wave will
help clear southern Colorado out heading into Sunday morning.
Overnight lows look to remain mild, with 50s to 60s on the Plains,
and 40s across the San Luis Valley. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Overall, not much variation in the weather pattern across the region
through the extended period, though there will be a few slight
differences, especially across the eastern plains. There will be a
daily shot of afternoon and evening convection, with the greatest
probabilities across the higher terrain. Temperatures across the
high valleys are forecast to hover around seasonal normals each day.
Multiple upper disturbances sweeping across the Rocky Mt region will
begin to affect the eastern plains beginning on Wednesday.

Sunday...High pressure aloft across the western third of the US will
keep warm temps and slightly decreased pops in place across the
western half of the warning area, while easterly surface flow at the
surface will drop temps to slightly below normal for the eastern
plains. Look for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the mts
and high valleys through the afternoon and early evening, while only
isolated activity spills over onto the I-25 Corridor. WPC has
brought a Marginal area for excessive rainfall up across the San
Luis Valley and southwest mts. Plan on highs in the 80s for the high
valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains.

Monday and Tuesday...The center of the upper high remains just off
the CA coast, while the west-northwest flow aloft strengthens across
the northern US and opens the door for northern disturbances to drop
down across Colorado. Southern surface winds across the plains will
help boost temps to slightly above normal, with highs in the upper
80s to mid 90s for the plains, and the high valleys remaining in the
80s both days. Shower and thunderstorm probabilities increase to
likely across the higher terrain both days, with scattered activity
crossing the I-25 Corridor during the evening.

Wednesday through Friday...Models indicate that a cold front pushes
south some time on Wed, increasing llvl moisture and paving the way
for at least some isolated convection each day across the plains
along with maximum temps right at or slightly below seasonal
normals. Convection chances across the mts and high valleys will
continue to be likely. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The only exception will be for
a slight chance of a passing -TSRA later this afternoon and
early evening at any of the 3 taf sites. Most if not all of the
activity should remain west of KCOS and KPUB, and east of KALS.
Winds will be diurnally driven through the fcst period. Some
outflow for storms in the vicinity will be possible later this
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH