014
FXUS65 KPUB 262324
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
524 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions to persist through Sunday.

- Increasing moisture will lead to an uptick in activity on
  Monday, then more widespread convection Tuesday and onward.

- Flash flood potential looks highest Tuesday and Wednesday,
  with areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall of most
  concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Currently...High pressure over the southeastern US, and a broad
trough over the West coast, was producing southwest flow aloft
across the Four Corners region. A few storms have fired north of the
Palmer Divide as of 130 PM, but so far for the forecast area it has
remained hot and dry, with 80s for the high valleys and 90s to near
100F for the plains.

Tonight...Any isolated showers and storms that do develop this
afternoon will likely diminish quickly by 8 PM, with the most
probable areas being over the higher terrain, and across the
southeast corner of the state. Main threats expected will be gusts
to 45 mph and cloud to ground lightning. Look for clear skies
tonight, with low temps in the 40s to around 50F for the high
valleys, and 60s across the plains.

Sunday...Little change to the general pattern aloft, though the
ridge of high pressure does gradually strengthen and push into
southeast Colorado. This translates to adding a few degrees to
already hot temps, and even drier conditions. Plan on high temps
quickly climbing into the 80s to near 90F for the high valleys, and
90s to around 100F for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

No changes to the forecast thinking through the extended period.
Hot conditions will prevail Monday, with precipitation chances
ramping up through mid to late week. Temperatures will cool off
a bit with the increasing precipitation.

Sunday night and Monday...upper level high pressure will build
across the Missouri Valley through Monday with increasing
southerly flow across southern Colorado. This will advect
moister northward into the region. Dry conditions are forecast
Sunday night, with lows in the 60s across the Plains, and 40s
across the San Luis Valley. One last hot day expected on Monday,
with highs on the Plains in the mid 90s to lower 100s, and 80s
across the San Luis Valley. As moisture spreads northward,
scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the higher
elevations Monday afternoon, then spreading northeast into the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa regions during the evening, and
dissipating after sunset.

Tuesday through Thursday...upper level high pressure will sit
across the Central Plains through mid week, with multiple
embedded waves lifting north out of the Desert Southwest with
ample moisture. Thunderstorms coverage will increase through
this period, with much of southern Colorado seeing elevated
chances for precipitation. PWAT values are forecast to increase
in excess of an inch across the region, and low level dewpoints
will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s on the Plains.
Shortwave energy will lift north across Colorado each afternoon
and evening. Initial convection is forecast to develop over the
Mountains, and spread eastward during the evening hours. The
main concerns at this time will be lightning and heavy rainfall.
The flash flood potential increases Tuesday, peaking on
Wednesday, especially for areas that have seen recent heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will cool off a bit through this time
period, with 80s and 90s across the Plains.

Friday into Saturday...the upper level high is forecast to
migrate to the Desert Southwest, with an upper ridge building
north across Colorado. Flow aloft will transition from southerly
to westerly, with continued embedded upper energy moving across
Colorado. PWAT values look to fall off a bit, which will likely
impact precipitation efficiency. But we will likely continue to
see thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, initially over
the Mountains, and spreading into the Plains given the increased
westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will also begin to warm, back
into the 90s across the Plains.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds are expected to remain relatively light and diurnally
driven through this TAF period. Otherwise, dry conditions with
occasional mid to high level clouds is anticipated.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE