146
FXUS65 KPUB 231722
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flood threat continues today as widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the region.

- Hot temperatures continue this weekend, along with mountain rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1229 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today will be our wettest day of the week, with widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected throughout the region. A shortwave will
pass through the region aloft, giving us plenty of forcing while
monsoon moisture remains plentiful across SE Colorado. Showers and
storms will pop up by early afternoon, first over the mountains
before activity spreads east. By late afternoon, most areas over the
plains will see at least some scattered activity, while more
widespread precipitation will move across the higher terrain. Mid-
level flow won`t be particularly strong, but enough to keep storms
moving. That being said, pockets of heavy rainfall, along with the
potential for training storms, will make flash flooding possible
over any susceptible areas. The Aspen Acres fire will be our highest
risk area today, followed by the Willow fire and the Chalk cliffs,
along with low-lying urban areas. The main focus of convective
activity will shift eastward into early evening as the shortwave
continues moving past, lingering over the plains into the early
overnight hours before dissipating. Meanwhile, temperatures will
remain hot today despite the expected rain, with 80s over the higher
terrain and 90s to low-100s over the eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Friday...

Precip coverage will lessen a bit on Friday, with most activity
staying over the higher terrain. For the plains, a more stable
airmass will be in place, allowing for only a few isolated showers
along and west of I-25. Meanwhile, scattered to more widespread
showers and storms will form by mid-afternoon and last into early
Friday Night over the peaks of the mountains. Burn scar flash
flooding will continue to be the primary concern.


This Weekend Onwards...

As the upper high moves overhead, flow weakens aloft. Forcing for
storms will significantly weaken, though recycling monsoon moisture
will be plentiful enough to keep afternoon showers and storms going
over the mountains. Meanwhile, the plains will dry out again, with
triple-digit temperatures returning. Current long-range guidance
suggests a wetter and potentially cooler (or at least less hot)
pattern as we move into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Overall winds are expected to remain light, around and less
than 10 knots, for this TAF period. With that said, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to blossom this afternoon and evening,
which could bring strong outflow winds to any of the TAF sites.
These storms may also bring heavy rain fall and sudden drops in
visibility. Outside of that, mid to high level clouds will increase
this afternoon and persist into the evening hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE