089
FXUS65 KPUB 052321
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
521 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily showers and thunderstorms continue each day into next week,
mostly over the mountains.

- Hot and dry conditions increase fire weather concerns into
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Hot the rest of today, with temps this afternoon climbing into the
80s to high-90s, warmest over the eastern plains as usual. Looking
at convective potential for this afternoon, models are a bit sparse.
Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will continue popping up
over the mountains through the afternoon, moving east a quickly
dissipating this evening. For impacts, mainly just looking at gusty
outflow winds and lightning.

Saturday will see almost identical conditions to today, with similar
high temperatures across the area. Thunderstorms will mainly be
limited to the mountains, with scattered afternoon activity
generated by some breezy southwest winds aloft and a bit of moisture
advection at the mid-levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Upper ridge continues building in on Sunday, with temperatures
bumping up a few degrees over the eastern plains. Some areas may hit
triple digits, while the rest of the area remains hot and largely
dry. This trend largely persists into early next week, with similar
temperatures and isolated POPs over the mountains during each
afternoon. Long-range guidance is still hinting at a broad upper
trough digging in over the western states mid-late week, suggesting
a slight cooldown and some better precip chances, but details will
need to be better resolved closer to date.

Main concern for this forecast period will be fire weather. With
above average temps, dry surface conditions, and little to no
precip, critical fire weather conditions are expected to set in over
portions of the area. This will mainly pick up on Sunday, continuing
each afternoon through most of next week. For now, given the widely
green fuels status, the only needed highlight for now is a Fire
Weather Watch for Fremont County for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Winds will start out gusty and dominated by thunderstorm outflows
through 02z before shifting around to light diurnally driven wind
directions overnight through Saturday morning.  Another round of
high based showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon
which will bring a return of erratic gusty outflows. Cigs during the
afternoon and evenings will remain VFR associated with high based -
SHRA/-TSRA.  Otherwise expect partial clearing overnight.  -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ222.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT