684
FXUS65 KPUB 250008
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
508 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front drops through the plains this evening.

- Snow picks up over the Continental Divide this evening,
  leading to wintry mountain conditions and cooler temperatures
  across the area for Monday.

- Precipitation returns late Monday through early Thursday,
  with snow for the mountains and mixed precipitation modes
  elsewhere.

- Quieter weather returns Friday into Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 502 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Have allowed the high wind warning for Huerfano County to
expire, as observed winds were below criteria, and HRRR shows a
rapid drop-off in gusts this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

An upper-level low is currently moving along the Canadian border,
heading eastward. As it moves, the upper-level flow will shift, and
a fast-moving trough will pass over our area Today and Tonight,
leading to some changes to our weather. Main concern for the rest of
today will be gusty west winds coming off of the mountains. Gusts
over 30 mph will be frequent over the higher terrain through this
afternoon, and areas just east of the mountains on I-25 could be
seeing some gusty winds as well. Highest probabilities of gusty
crosswinds will be over the southern I-25 corridor, mostly around
gap flow areas.

An influx of moisture and orographic lift will bring snow showers to
the Continental Divide, starting this afternoon and lasting into
Monday. Accumulations will be highest over the west and northwest-
facing slopes, but even then total snowfall amounts look minor at
this time, with 3-5 inches or so at most by Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a cold front is expected to pass south across the eastern
plains later today, cooling down temperatures for tomorrow. Monday`s
highs will be in the 40s across most of our area tomorrow, with
cooler temps over the mountain peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

Monday Night - Thursday: For much of the week, active weather is
expected for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado.
Zonal flow will be in place for Monday night into early Wednesday,
with an embedded shortwave pushing over the region throughout the
day Wednesday and exiting late Wednesday into Thursday. With the
zonal flow and wave, persistent orographic forcing is expected along
the mountains, with broader synoptic ascent/support increasing with
the wave passage. In addition, an atmospheric river will extend well
inland from the Pacific, bringing a surge in moisture. With the
increased forcing and moisture, precipitation is expected for much
of the region, favoring the mountains and valleys through most of
this timeframe, but expanding to the plains during Wednesday into
Thursday. With that all said, precipitation for the higher terrain
will remain all snow throughout this period, whereas the valleys
will have periods of snow and rain/snow mix and the plains will have
rain and rain/snow mix during the day Wednesday transitioning to all
snow Wednesday night into Thursday. As of right now, any major
impacts to travel are expected to remain along the mountains where
the heaviest and most persistent snow will fall, though some minor
impacts to travel will possible elsewhere given the rain/snow and
snow during cooler periods of the days. While some precipitation is
expected to extend into Thursday morning, most precipitation present
is anticipated to dissipate during the day. Beyond all of that,
breezy winds and mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are expected for much
of this timeframe, with lighter winds and clearing skies for
Thursday. Looking at temperatures, Tuesday will be the warmest day
and above seasonal values ahead of the more inclement pattern. Then
for Wednesday and Thursday, a cool down to below seasonal
temperatures is expected given a cold front passage Wednesday.

Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week, quieter weather returns
for south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow will become more
northwesterly behind the inclement pattern earlier in the week.
Given the lack of major forcing and decreasing moisture, dry
conditions are expected to prevail. The exception to this will be
isolated snow showers along the mountains given at least modest
orographic forcing persisting. Otherwise, relatively light winds and
periods of mid to high level clouds are anticipated for south
central and southeastern Colorado. As for temperatures, cool and
below seasonal values remain thanks to the northwesterly helping to
slow any warming.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 433 PM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

For KCOS and and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected for the next
several hours, before MVFR and IFR ceilings become possible at both
stations. A cold frontal boundary is currently pushing through KCOS
as of 2330Z, and is expected to reach KPUB by 01Z. North winds
gusting from 25kt to 28kt are expected along and behind this
boundary this evening, and will likely persist through much of the
overnight hours. As winds begin to weaken and shift more easterly
and southeasterly, low-level cloud will increase over both stations,
with MVFR and IFR ceilings possible from 10Z through around 15Z
tomorrow morning. Some light snow or rain/snow mix will be possible
through the overnight hours as well, especially at KCOS, though
chances were too low to include in the TAF at this time. Sky
conditions improve after 15Z tomorrow, with weaker southeasterly
winds persisting through the remainder of the period.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF
period. Low and mid-level cloud cover will decrease through the
overnight and early morning hours. Winds will remain mostly
westerly and southerly throughout the period, with gusts
remaining below 15kt after 02Z this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late
Wednesday night for COZ058.
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through late Wednesday
night for COZ060-066-068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR