577
FXUS65 KPUB 151912
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
112 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash
  flooding continue through Sunday with a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms across the southeast plains both days.

- Thunderstorm activity a little less widespread for Monday as
  drier air works in from the west.

- Warmer and drier for the rest of next week with isolated
  thunderstorms over the mountains most days.

- A cool front brings an uptick in thunderstorms, with the
  potential for strong to severe storms for the southeast
  mountains and plains Wed and Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Monsoon moisture with embedded disturbances continues to stream
up from the southwest across southern CO. Many areas receive
rainfall across the plains on Friday with a broad swath of 1 to
2 inch rainfall amounts across Las Animas, Otero, Bent, Prowers
and Kiowa counties. Another area of 1-2 inch rainfall amounts
fell across northern Teller and El Paso counties. With more
rainfall possible today, opted to expand Flash Flood Watches
across most of the southeast plains except Baca county where
rainfall the past couple days has been much lighter.

Thunderstorms will continue into the evening and overnight hours
across the southeast plains with one or more thunderstorm clusters
developing and advancing east southeastward off the Palmer
Divide and Raton Mesa regions. Mean CAPE off HREF ranges from up
to 1000 J/kg along the I-25 corridor to close to 2000 J/kg
across the far eastern plains with stronger deep layer shears
(30-35kts) vs yesterday. This should support a few more severe
thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds around 60 mph or greater
and hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. Heavy rainfall will
also be a concern, especially for burn scars, urban areas and
locations with already saturated soil conditions. Kept pops
going well into the night as most CAMS suggest thunderstorm
regeneration along the southeast mountains pushing off into the
adjacent plains. Confidence is greatest for persistent
thunderstorm regeneration to the north of highway 50 and out
across Baca county along a reinforcing surge of a cold front.
Kept low temperatures on the warmer side of guidance.

A similar scenario will play out for Sunday though the axis of
higher CAPE will push westward to along the I-25 corridor where
enhanced easterly upslope flow will keep dew points in the upper
50s to close to 60. With monsoon moisture still over the region
combined with a stronger focus for thunderstorm develop across
the southeast mountains, Sunday looks like another high end day
(perhaps higher risk than today) for flash flooding of the Aspen
Acres Burn scar. Have issued another Flash Flood Watch for this
area. Thunderstorms will push eastward across the plains where
higher CAPE and better shear will reside, resulting in another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms, this time favoring the
I-25 corridor and adjacent plains. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the most likely threats.  A cap farther east may take a
little longer to erode on Sunday, but it still looks like
sufficient surface heating will take place for thunderstorms to
spread eastward into the evening with some regeneration possible
after dark along the I-25 corridor as a disturbance aloft moves
through the flow. -KT


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A drying trend commences on Monday though southern and eastern
areas will see one more round of heavy rain producing
thunderstorms. A few strong storms will be possible across the
plains where shears will range from 25 to 35 kts in the
afternoon. Flash Flooding of Aspen Acres burn scar still looks
possible though thunderstorm coverage may be a little less which
may reduce the risk some.

The upper high expands westward for Tuesday then amplifies
across the western U.S. through mid week as a shortwave trough
passes by to the north and east on Wednesday. Hot temperatures
and mostly dry conditions will return for Tuesday with highs
rebounding into the mid to upper 90s across the plains. A cold
front brings another uptick in thunderstorms to the southeast
mountains and plains Wednesday and possibly Thursday. With
southeasterly low level flow beneath northwest flow aloft, shear
will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms as long
as low level moisture and sufficient CAPE is maintained. There
is some drying coming in from the north on Thursday which could
shunt the strong to severe storm potential to south of highway
50 on Thursday.

Otherwise...warmer weather returns for Friday into the weekend
with a southerly moisture tap out west recirculating through
the upper high bringing another gradual moistening along with
increasing thunderstorm chances across the mountains next
weekend. -KT


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around 18z and
spread off into KCOS and KPUB after 20-21z. Some brief MVFR
cigs/vis will be possible with any stronger storms should
they impact the terminals, along with gusty outflow winds up
to 50 kts. Some small hail and torrential rainfall could
also accompany the stronger cells. Storms will pull east of the
terminals by 00-01z but another round will move off the
mountains during the evening affecting KCOS and possibly KPUB
through 06z-07z. Confidence is greatest at KCOS where a PROB30
group will cover this potential. Less confidence exists for
KPUB so kept this a prevailing VCSH for now.  Winds will become
dominated by thunderstorm outflows and further AMDs may be
needed to capture timing of wind shifts through the evening.
Otherwise, winds will settle into a north to northwest component
under 10 kts overnight and increase from the southeast at both
terminals on Sun with another round of showers and thunderstorms
during the late afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms will be possible to the north of KALS but are
less likely to impact the terminals. North winds will spread
into KALS between 00-01z from decaying thunderstorm outflows
with speeds around 10-15 kts.  Clearing skies and light winds
will return by 06z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for COZ079-080-086.
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ081-082-084-
085-087>089-093>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...KT