959
FXUS65 KPUB 070452
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1052 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues over the plains, with snow generally above 6500 feet
  or so, through the rest of tonight and into tomorrow morning.

- Rain and snow chances taper from west to east through our
  Wednesday, with cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies
  persisting throughout the day.

- Patchy Frost or Freeze potential near the mountains Wednesday
  night if sufficient clearing can take place.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible each day over the mountains
  then a drying and warming trend early next week with
  increasing winds ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 443 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Updated current suite of highlights to extend the higher Sawatch
Range Winter Storm Warning through noon Wednesday to better
match lower elevation zones. Heaviest snow will through
midnight but hazardous travel conditions will likely continue
into Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Currently..

Satellite imagery shows our upper low still spinning over New
Mexico, slowly meandering towards the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle
region. Radar returns depict widespread rain over our lower
elevations, and snow showers generally above 6500 feet or so. Area
webcams and observations show slick and snow covered roadways across
northern El Paso County as of 2pm. Winds are due easterly with deep
upslope over the forecast area.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Models continue to slowly push the upper low into the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandle region through early tomorrow morning, eventually ejecting
it into Kansas by around 21Z Wednesday afternoon. This will keep
deep easterly upslope over eastern Colorado throughout the rest of
today and tonight, slowly switching our winds to more northerly by
early tomorrow morning. Heaviest precipitation is expected to fall
late this afternoon through early this evening, tapering off to
lesser rates through midnight. Though rain and snow will likely keep
going straight through the overnight hours and into tomorrow, rates
will be much less after the low begins to eject into Kansas later
tonight. Highlights will slowly come to an end over portions of the
high country as well, as rates taper from west to east. The main
areas to keep an eye on through this evening for forecast changes
will be the Palmer Divide and the southern I-25 corridor, along with
the upper Arkansas River Basin. Colder than currently forecast
temperatures and ongoing snow chances could mean higher than
currently forecast now totals in these areas.

Tomorrow..

By tomorrow morning, surface winds are northerly across the I-25
corridor, which will lead to downsloping across southern El Paso and
north/central Pueblo county. These areas should see lesser
precipitation amounts through the late morning hours as we begin to
clear from west to east and downsloping continues to clear us out
some as well. Travel impacts are expected over northern El Paso
County tomorrow morning, especially on back roads and side streets.
Though there will be lots of slush and melting on main highways,
there are likely be be impacts in neighborhoods and other traffic
ways over the Palmer Divide. Rain will likely continue on our far
eastern plains through much of the day. Residual moisture, and
another round of embedded shortwave energy in the building ridge to
our west will be sufficient to keep chances for showers over the
high country tomorrow as well. We`ll keep highs in the 50s and low
60s across plains and mountain valleys, with light winds and mostly
cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Precipitation winds down Wednesday night as our system pulls
away to the east and ridging returns out west. Residual
moisture within northerly flow aloft will allow showers and
embedded thunderstorms to regenerate over the mountains each
afternoon and evening with northerly steering flows keeping most
storms over the mountains and mainly west of I-25. Have
adjusted pops for Thu and Fri accordingly. Otherwise,
temperatures will warm through period. Will need to watch
Thursday morning for a potential frost/freeze for higher
elevations of the I-25 corridor including Palmer Divide, and the
southern I-25 corridor around Walsenburg to Trinidad. It will
depend on how quickly clouds clear out Wednesday night which
looks borderline at this point. Rivers and creeks will continue
to run high from runoff through Thursday, before dropping back
down below flood stage on the lower stem gages during the day
on Friday, if current projections hold.

Warming continues over the weekend with daily mountain thunderstorms,
though coverage will be gradually decreasing with time.
Temperatures across the plains will be warming back into the
lower 80s by Sunday. Southwest flow increases early next week
as the next trough approaches from the west. This will bring
warm, windy and drier conditions to southern CO with long range
models lifting the system out to the north and west of the
region. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Tue May 6 2025

Upper low continues to translate east into the western Texas
Panhandle tonight, with showers wrapping around the system
the day tomorrow. Dispite the developing northerly downslope
at COS and PUB, will likely see MVFR to IFR cigs and vis
developing through the overnight hours, with the ample available
moisture. VFR cigs and vis expected by 16Z Wed with possible brief
MVFR conditions possible with passing showers through the afternoon.

Mainly VFR conditions expected at ALS through the period, with latest
model data indicating only a brief potential for fog at the terminal
through aft 09Z Wed. VFR cigs look to persist through the afternoon,
with a small chance of MVFR conditions with a passing shower.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ058-
061-063-076-078.
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Wednesday for COZ060-
072>075-079>082.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ084.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW