211
FXUS65 KPUB 102009
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
209 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected through around 10PM tonight
  over the eastern plains with main hazards being 1.5" hail, 70
  mph wind gusts, and an isolated tornado.

- Isolated to scattered showers over the mountains throughout
  the week with another monsoon plume developing by Thursday of
  this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Rest of Today...

Severe thunderstorms are likely over the far eastern plains at the
beginning of the forecast period between 6PM and 10PM. Modest
instability ranging from 1000 - 2000 J/kg and exceptional wind shear
(0-6km bulk) around 40 to 50 kts. The hodograph is a bit messy at
times but the overall look shows a generally straight line pattern
with low level bowing to it. Model guidance is showing storms
combining into a bow structure at this time, but embedded supercells
would favor splitting cells, right dominate, but there is evidence
to support left splits as well. Main hazards will be hail up to 1.5"
and wind gusts up to 70 MPH. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. The severe risk will last through around 10PM with lingering
thunderstorms developing afterwards, but they do not looks to be
severe. If we get any training, flash flooding will need to be
monitored, as well.

Tomorrow...

The trough axis aloft continues to swing across southern Colorado
there will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the southern
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the Wet Mountains, Pikes Peak Region,
and even down over Baca County. Main hazards over those regions will
be heavy rain, lightning, small hail, and gusty winds up to 40 MPH.
Outside of those areas dry and seasonally cool conditions are
expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
across the entire region outside of the highest elevations.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Slow drying trend begins Monday, as upper trough axis sinks
south of Colorado, and deeper moisture/instability drop south
into NM/nrn TX. Still enough moisture for afternoon convection
again on Mon, with best coverage of storms over the srn Sangres
and along the srn I-25 corridor, where forcing is strongest.
Mainly isolated activity farther north and west, and cut back
blended model pops a bit here, though may need to go even drier
if trends continue. Max temps Mon will remain cool, as pocket of
cooler air rotates south through the region, with highs in the
70s/80s at most locations.

From Tuesday into the end of the week, upper ridge builds over
the swrn U.S. and srn Rockies, bringing back summertime heat and
keeping deeper moisture suppressed south of the region until at
least Fri. Still enough recycled moisture and weak instability
for a daily dose of afternoon convection, mainly over the
mountains, though storm coverage will be rather sparse, and
rainfall amounts light. Upper ridge then shifts east from Fri
through next weekend, allowing a renewed tap of moisture to push
into srn CO. As a result, expect storm coverage and strength to
gradually ramp up Fri/Sat, especially back toward the
Continental Divide, where chances for much needed rainfall will
increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected for KALS throughout the forecast
period. There will be a period of gusty winds this afternoon,
but gusts will diminish by sunset.

There will be PROB30 thunderstorm chances over KCOS and KPUB,
with the current thinking that storms will stay to the NE of
KCOS, however KPUB seems to have a little bit better chance for
storm development. IFR and LIFR conditions would occur if a
thunderstorm develops over these TAF sites. Storm chances
diminish in the evening with VFR conditions expected through the
rest of the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SKELLY