604
FXUS65 KPUB 050945
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple of strong to marginally severe storms will be
  possible across the eastern plains both this afternoon and
  Sunday afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms continue across the area Monday, then
  hotter and drier weather expected Tue/Wed with only very
  isolated storm activity.

- Hot Thu, but with an uptick in thunderstorm chances as a cold
  front approaches, then cooler Fri with scattered storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Today: Saturday brings some active weather to portions of south
central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will
start to build south of the Colorado and expand across the region.
While overall subsidence will increase with this feature, lee
troughing close to the terrain will allow for easterly to
southeasterly component winds to develop across the plains. These
surface winds will help develop upsloping into the eastern terrain
features. Along with that, modest moisture will be in place across
the plains left behind from previous days convection. Given all of
that, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the eastern mountains during the early afternoon
hours, and given westerly flow aloft, push east across the plains by
late afternoon. A couple of strong, to marginally severe, storms
will be possible tomorrow afternoon given an uptick in bulk shear
around 30 knots, allowing for modest storm organization. With high
bases and large DCAPE values around 1600-1800 J/kg, strong outflow
winds around 60 mph are the most likely hazard, though frequent
lightning, small hail, and brief periods of heavy are also possible
with any stronger storms. Elsewhere, dry conditions are anticipated
to prevail, though an isolated shower can`t be ruled out along the
rest of the higher terrain. Beyond all of that, like previous days
recently, clear skies early will become partly cloudy during the
afternoon, with relatively light winds around 10 mph expected. As
for temperatures, near to slightly above seasonal values are
expected, with the plains rising into the upper 80s to upper 90s,
the valleys into the 80s, and the mountains into the 60s and 70s.

Tonight: For Saturday night, active is expected early, though with
quiet conditions returning by the overnight hours. The ridge of high
pressure and increased subsidence will remain in place. Despite the
lack of major forcing, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development is still expected across the eastern plains through the
late evening hours as outflow from Saturday day storms pushes
eastward. With that said though, as instability wanes, and outflows
push out of the area, dry conditions are anticipated by the late
early overnight hours. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will become
mostly clear by Sunday morning, with winds remaining light around 5
mph. Temperatures overnight will be mild and seasonal, with the
plains dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s, the plains into the
40s, and the mountains into the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tomorrow: The end of the weekend brings a rinse and repeat type day,
with similar Conditions as Saturday`s. The ridge of high pressure
will remain in place. While subsidence will stay heightened with
this feature, lee troughing close to the terrain will once again
develop, allowing for more easterly to southeasterly winds to
upslope into the eastern terrain features. With upsloping
materializing again, and modest moisture left in place from
Saturday`s convection, another round of isolated to scattered
showers and storms is anticipated. Showers and storms will blossom
initially along the eastern mountains during the early afternoon
hours, and then push eastward across the plains by the late
afternoon hours. Like Saturday, a couple of strong, to marginally
severe, storms will be possible during the afternoon given modest
bulk shear around 30 knots remaining in place, allowing for minor
storm organization. Strong outflow winds around 60 mph are the
expected hazard given high storm bases and large DCAPE values around
1600-1800 J/kg, though frequent lightning, small hail, and brief
periods of heavy are also possible with any stronger storms.
Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected to prevail, though an
isolated shower can`t be ruled out along the rest of the higher
terrain. Looking at temperatures, another warm and near seasonal day
is anticipated, with the plains reaching into the upper 80s to mid
90s, the valleys into the 80s, and the mountains into the 60s and
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Upper ridge begins to build Mon afternoon, though with low
level moisture lingering, scattered afternoon/evening storms
will again be possible, especially across the eastern
mountains/I-25 corridor/southeast plains. Should be enough
instability (CAPE 1k-2k J/KG) for a few stronger storms on the
plains, though decreased shear (0-6km 20-30 kts) may keep a lid
on storm strength, with lower end severe storms (wind 60
mph/quarter size hail) the main risk.

Ridge builds overhead on Tue/Wed, bringing hot temps and
generally suppressing convection across much of the area. Still
enough moisture around for some isolated higher terrain and KS
border storms both days, though weak winds aloft and limited
instability should keep activity rather weak/short lived. Max
temps will climb back into toward the 100f degree mark on the
plains, with 80s/90s widespread at lower elevations, 70s/80s
mountains. 00z deterministic models continue to show a strong
short wave racing across the nrn U.S. late Thu into Fri, pushing
a rather strong cold front south through Colorado late
Thu/early Fri, with timing of frontal passage 8-12 hrs faster
in the 00z runs. Front should provide forcing for increased
thunderstorm chances Thu afternoon/evening, with another round
of showers and thunderstorms on Friday in moister, post-frontal
upslope pattern. Front should arrive late enough to make for
another hot day on Thu, with maxes near 100f again on the
plains, before cooler air spread south on Fri, dropping temps
back toward seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Light and variable this morning will increase slightly this
afternoon as diurnal mixing develops. While dry conditions are
expected to prevail for all three TAF sites, an isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon, especially for KCOS
and KPUB, though confidence is low, around 20%, in this scenario at
this time. Strong outflow winds around 60 mph would be the primary
hazard with any stronger storms, along with frequent lightning,
small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain. Otherwise, pockets of
mid to high level clouds will develop this afternoon, with clear
skies returning Saturday night.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SIMCOE