Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
865 FNUS55 KPSR 212106 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 206 PM MST Thu Aug 21 2025 .DISCUSSION... Well above normal temperatures are expected through at least the next couple of days as temperatures approach record levels. Additionally, moisture will continue to increase across the area, leading to increasing thunderstorm chances. Best shower and storm chances this afternoon and evening will be across the higher terrain east of Phoenix (30-60%) with chances (20-40%) extending into the lower deserts of south-central Arizona. Chances for showers and storms further expand to include the western districts Friday and Saturday. The primary threats with storms will be lightning, strong erratic outflow winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Chances for seeing outflow wind gusts in excess of 35 mph today climb upwards of 50-70% for southern Gila, eastern Maricopa, and NW Pinal Counties, with a 10% chance of seeing gusts in excess of 58 mph. Similar probabilities expand further west Friday towards the Lower Colorado River Valley. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will overall continue to favor diurnal upslope/downvalley patterns with occasional afternoon gusts around 15-20 mph. Min RHs will remain around 15-25% over the next couple of days, while overnight Max RHs increase to upwards of 30-50% for most areas. ...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds... Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-220915- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 206 PM MST Thu Aug 21 2025 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature.................84-94. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................36-48 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northeast 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................10 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............11 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................106-112. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................16-22 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northeast 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 20 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............16 percent. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......8900 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......Southwest 8 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Marginal. .FRIDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the evening. chance of showers . slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. * Min Temperature.................83-93. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................41-52 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming northeast 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................40 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................20 percent west portion...10 percent east portion. * Chance of Thunder...............31 percent. .SATURDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the morning becoming chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................104-111. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................18-24 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable. * Chance of Precip................20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............19 percent. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......11100 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......West 5 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Good. .EXTENDED... .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 82-92. Highs 104-110. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 78-88. Highs 101-107. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 75-85. Highs 94-100. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 75-85. Highs 92-98. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 76-86. Highs 93-99. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-220915- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 206 PM MST Thu Aug 21 2025 /206 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025/ .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................84-89. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................39-58 pct. * 24 hr trend..................10 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming east 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............6 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................109-114. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................17-23 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............East 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................10 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............13 percent. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........8900 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 10 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .FRIDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Min Temperature.................85-90. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................45-60 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming northeast 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................40 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............22 percent. .SATURDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Max Temperature.................106-111. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................20-24 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................30 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............17 percent. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........7800 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 8 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .EXTENDED... .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 83-89. Highs 106-111. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 80-88. Highs 103-108. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 77-84. Highs 97-102. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 77-82. Highs 96-101. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 76-81. Highs 97-102. $$ AZZ133-220915- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 206 PM MST Thu Aug 21 2025 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms in the evening. slight chance of showers . slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. * Min Temperature.................66-85. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................44-64 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northeast 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................30 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............30 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................91-106. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................17-26 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............East 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 20 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............24 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening becoming slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. * Min Temperature.................66-84. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................46-62 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming southeast after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable. * Chance of Precip................40 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............35 percent. .SATURDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................90-106. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................19-27 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming west in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 20 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................20 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............23 percent. .EXTENDED... .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-83. Highs 90-106. East winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 64-83. Highs 89-104. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 62-80. Highs 83-97. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 61-77. Highs 80-93. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 61-77. Highs 80-94. $$ CAZ232-220915- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 206 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................85-91. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................29-60 pct. * 24 hr trend..................13 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............4 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................104-114. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................14-21 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 10 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............13 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. * Min Temperature.................85-92. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................36-62 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming east 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................40 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............17 percent. .SATURDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Chance of showers . slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................102-111. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................17-24 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................30 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............17 percent. .EXTENDED... .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 83-91. Highs 101-111. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 79-90. Highs 99-109. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 77-85. Highs 93-103. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 77-84. Highs 92-101. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 76-83. Highs 93-102. $$ CAZ230-220915- Joshua Tree National Park- 206 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................77-88. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................28-35 pct. * 24 hr trend..................8 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming southeast 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............3 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................95-108. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................15-21 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................10 percent in the morning becoming 20 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............19 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the evening. slight chance of thunderstorms . chance of showers after midnight. * Min Temperature.................76-87. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................34-42 pct. * 24 hr trend..................7 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable. * Chance of Precip................40 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............17 percent. .SATURDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning becoming showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................91-105. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees cooler. * Min Humidity....................20-27 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................60 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............23 percent. .EXTENDED... .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 74-86. Highs 91-104. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 70-85. Highs 89-103. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-81. Highs 83-97. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 66-78. Highs 83-95. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 66-78. Highs 83-96. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Friday August 29th through Sunday August 31st: Below normal temperatures and above median precipitation.