Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
019 FNUS55 KPSR 202042 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 142 PM MST Wed Aug 20 2025 .DISCUSSION... Well above normal temperatures are expected through at least the next couple of days as temperatures approach record levels. Additionally, moisture will continue to increase across the area, leading to increasing thunderstorm chances. Thunderstorm chances through the rest of this afternoon and evening will remain primarily confined to the higher terrain east of Phoenix with chances in Phoenix less than 15%. For Thursday, thunderstorm chances further increase with better indications for thunderstorms to survive into the lower deserts. The primary threats with any stronger thunderstorms will be lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds. Chances for seeing outflow wind gusts in excess of 35 mph today and tomorrow climb upwards of 50-70% for southern Gila, eastern Maricopa, and NW Pinal Counties, with a 10% chance of seeing gusts in excess of 58 mph tomorrow. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will overall continue to favor diurnal upslope/downvalley patterns with occasional afternoon gusts around 15-20 mph. Min RHs will remain around 15-25% over the next couple of days, while overnight Max RHs increase to upwards of 30-50% for most areas. ...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds... Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-210845- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 142 PM MST Wed Aug 20 2025 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. * Min Temperature.................83-93. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................27-44 pct. * 24 hr trend..................7 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming southeast after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............East 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............6 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................107-114. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................13-18 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............East 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 10 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............10 percent. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......10700 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......Southeast 4 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Marginal. .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms . * Min Temperature.................84-94. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................32-44 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northeast 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent west portion...10 percent east portion. * Chance of Thunder...............20 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers . slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................106-112. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................16-21 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Northeast 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............19 percent. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......9200 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......Southwest 5 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Fair. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 83-93. Highs 104-110. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 81-91. Highs 103-110. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 78-88. Highs 100-106. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 77-87. Highs 95-102. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 76-86. Highs 95-101. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-210845- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 142 PM MST Wed Aug 20 2025 /142 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025/ .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................82-88. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................28-41 pct. * 24 hr trend..................7 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming south after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............3 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................110-115. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................13-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............6 percent. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........9700 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 6 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. * Min Temperature.................84-89. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................34-51 pct. * 24 hr trend..................7 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............East 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................10 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............9 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers in the morning becoming chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................109-114. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................17-22 pct. * 24 hr trend..................5 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............East 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................30 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............16 percent. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........8900 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 9 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 84-89. Highs 106-111. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 82-88. Highs 105-110. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 79-87. Highs 101-106. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 78-84. Highs 98-103. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 77-82. Highs 98-103. $$ AZZ133-210845- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 142 PM MST Wed Aug 20 2025 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. * Min Temperature.................66-85. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................42-65 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................20 percent in the evening becoming 0 percent after midnight. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............22 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................91-107. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................17-27 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 30 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............34 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke in the evening. haze . Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. * Min Temperature.................66-84. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................42-64 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming north 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................30 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............32 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................91-106. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................18-26 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 30 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............29 percent. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-84. Highs 91-106. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-83. Highs 90-105. East winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-82. Highs 88-103. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 62-80. Highs 84-97. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 60-79. Highs 80-95. $$ CAZ232-210845- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 142 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................83-89. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................19-42 pct. * 24 hr trend..................7 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming northwest after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph in the evening becoming 15 to 25 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............2 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................105-115. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................11-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............6 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................86-92. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................25-51 pct. * 24 hr trend..................8 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............7 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers . slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................105-114. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................15-22 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..South 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................20 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............14 percent. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 85-91. Highs 102-111. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 82-91. Highs 101-110. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 79-88. Highs 97-106. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 77-86. Highs 94-104. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 76-83. Highs 93-103. $$ CAZ230-210845- Joshua Tree National Park- 142 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................75-85. * 24 hr trend..................4 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................19-23 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming northwest after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming southeast 10 to 20 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............1 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................95-109. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................12-16 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..North 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................10 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............5 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................77-87. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................26-31 pct. * 24 hr trend..................7 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..West 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming southeast 5 to 15 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............6 percent. .FRIDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................95-109. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................16-21 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..North 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................10 percent in the morning becoming 40 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............17 percent. .EXTENDED... .SATURDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 75-88. Highs 92-105. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 73-86. Highs 91-105. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 70-84. Highs 88-101. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 67-81. Highs 84-97. .WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 65-78. Highs 84-97. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Thursday August 28th through Saturday August 30th: Below normal temperatures and above median precipitation.