214
FXUS65 KPSR 180539
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1039 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

.UPDATE...06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another weather system clipping the area Wednesday will result in
gusty winds, with increased precipitation chances over the Arizona
high terrain.

- A quick moving system Thursday night into Friday will reinforce
cooler temperatures with additional chances for light showers across
central Arizona.

- Drier weather with much warmer temperatures will return to the
region early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Pronounced longwave troughing has enveloped the western Conus early
this afternoon with the strongest negative height anomalies centered
along the Pacific NW coast. Over the next 84 hours, numerous
shortwaves will rotate through the greater cyclonic flow, slowly
carving out lower heights to the south and east. While strong jet
energy is currently analyzed on the western periphery of the trough
axis, this momentum should rapidly translate to the downstream jet
core tomorrow in association with a progressive shortwave ensuring
more zonally orientated height falls versus meridional digging.

With an initial shortwave shearing and lifting into the central
Rockies this afternoon/evening, weak subsidence will dominate the
majority of the forecast area through Wednesday morning though low
level moisture in the form of 4-5 g/kg mixing ratios should linger
in the region. Forecast confidence is excellent regarding the
passage of a low amplitude shortwave across far northern Arizona
Wednesday, dragging a trailing cold front through the CWA during the
afternoon/evening. The greatest impact with this system will be an
enhanced low level pressure gradient along the cold front with a
corridor of 40-50kt H8 winds focused through SE California and SW
Arizona late morning through mid afternoon. Mechanical mixing should
begin partially tapping this stream of higher momentum ahead of the
cold front, however the gradient should quickly weaken through the
day, though a few hours of gusts in excess of 40 mph seems
reasonable. Given the recent lack of rainfall in this area, areas of
blowing dust (and the downstream transport of lofted dust) would be
the most significant impact, especially along the I-8 corridor.

Otherwise, the bulk of ascent associated with this wave will pass
north of the forecast area, however enough moisture and saturation
in the H8-H7 layer juxtaposed with orographic influences should
yield some scattered showers on the northern CWA border. One major
limiting factor will be a tremendous midtropospheric subsidence
inversion above the H7 level resulting in a very narrow saturation
layer between 6-10K ft almost necessitating forced orographic ascent
with the stronger H8-H7 SW winds to produce accumulating
precipitation. As such, there should be a tight gradient between
higher elevation foothills and lower deserts facilitating better
POPs, while the limited moisture and ascent should restrict any
rainfall amounts generally under 0.10". While snow levels will fall
to around 5000ft with passage of this wave, dry air above 10K ft and
lack of saturation in the dendritic growth zone will preclude any
snowfall accumulations. Thereafter, another round of weak subsidence
forcing dry weather will spread into the region Thursday awaiting
the next shortwave Friday. Dampened heights and thermal fields aloft
will ensure temperatures hover 5F-10F below the seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Broad troughing will persist across the Western U.S. on Friday
as a third weather system is expected to track into northern Arizona
Friday morning. Model guidance is finally coming to a consensus
regarding precipitation chances Friday with the best opportunity for
accumulating rainfall likely being very similar to the Wednesday
system. The best moisture and forcing should be across the northern
half of Arizona, however a somewhat more southerly displaced cold
core should result in some scattered shower activity reaching into
the south-central Arizona lower deserts Friday morning.
Precipitation amounts again should be on the light side, but some
uncertainty remains as far as how much and how far south the shower
activity will reach. Friday`s high temperatures will be very similar
to Thursday, but as drier air and light winds filter into the area
Friday night more efficient nocturnal cooling should lead to the
coldest morning in several weeks Saturday. Lows Saturday morning
very well could dip into the upper 30s for some of the Phoenix metro
with rural lower desert areas into the lower/middle 30s.

Upper level ridging should then move over the region this weekend
with temperatures quickly climbing to above normal starting
Sunday. Guidance favors the ridge to persist into early next week
with NBM forecast highs back into the lower 80s for next Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0525Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Breezy to windy conditions along with CIGs near 6k ft will be the
main aviation concerns, mainly during late morning/afternoon
hours. In the meantime, winds tonight will contain a SE`rly
component, with sustained speeds generally around 8-12 kts.
Breeziness begins to pick up after sunrise, with peak gusts near
25 kts during the afternoon hours. Some occasional higher gusts
closer to 30 kts will be possible in conjunction with a frontal
passage. FEW bases tonight will become SCT-BKN after 12Z. Light
SHRA may also be observed in the vicinity of the terminals,
particularly KSDL and KDVT, Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is
too low and the window of possibility too narrow to warrant
mention of rain in those TAFs at this time.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Breezy to windy conditions will be the main aviation concern
during the next 24 hours. Overnight winds could be a bit tricky at
times. Light winds should prevail, but sudden and sporadic gusts
near 20-25 kts will be possible. Marginal LLWS impacts may be
observed, but should remain below TAF thresholds. Gusts will
become more persistent after sunrise, gusting to around 25 kts at
KBLH, while KIPL will see gusts closer to 30 kts. Although
confidence is low, reduced VIS due to blowing dust, mainly at
KIPL, cannot be ruled out during the latter portion of the
forecast. Besides a brief window of SCT to perhaps BKN low decks
near 4-6k ft in association with a frontal passage late Wednesday
morning, skies will be generally clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy conditions will pick up again on Wednesday as gusts once
again reach above 35 mph in some areas. Another couple rounds of
light shower activity will be possible across the Arizona high
terrain on Wednesday, and again Friday morning as two quick moving
disturbances move across northern Arizona. Afternoon MinRH values
will range between 25-40% across the lower deserts to 35-60% over
higher terrain areas through Friday. Overnight recovery will range
from good to excellent. Drying and warming conditions are expected
for the weekend with MinRHs dropping into the teens for the lower
deserts and temperatures rising to above normal.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ530>533-535-
     536.

CA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ565-567.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ560-561-563-564-
     566-568>570.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ562.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Kuhlman/18
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman