239
FXUS65 KPSR 200512
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1012 PM MST Sat Apr 19 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure and drier conditions will build
in through the rest of the weekend in the wake of a weather
disturbance departing the region. Temperatures will continue to
average below normal for today before rebounding into the near
normal range on Sunday. Seasonably dry and tranquil weather
conditions will prevail through most of next week with temperatures
averaging slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper-level low
that brought some active conditions yesterday evening across south-
central AZ in the form of showers and gusty winds is now moving
eastward into New Mexico. In the wake of this disturbance, drier
air is filtering from the northwest with clearing skies. With the
negative height anomalies persisting from the departing upper-
level low, high temperatures this afternoon will continue to
remain below normal as readings will top out in the middle to
upper 70s across the south-central AZ lower deserts and lower 80s
across the western deserts.

A benign weather pattern will set up across the Desert Southwest
starting on Sunday and very likely persisting through much if not
all of next week as a quasi-zonal flow pattern sets up. With 500 mb
height fields quickly rising on Sunday, high temperatures will be
rebounding into the near normal range. Temperatures will then warm a
few degrees above normal, in the upper 80s to lower 90s, starting on
Monday with readings remaining steady state through the remainder of
the week as the upper-level pattern changes very little. Heading
towards the end of the week and into next weekend, the global
ensembles agree of another trough approaching the west coast. There
continues to be some noticeable spread on the overall depth of the
trough as it approaches the western CONUS so as a result, the
temperature spread from the NBM does increase a bit as a deeper
solution would result in a cooling trend while a more shallower
solution would maintain temperatures running above normal. An
increase in gradient winds would also materialize if the deeper
trough solution comes to fruition.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Overall winds will tend to follow their typical diurnal patterns
with speeds generally aob 8 kt. Skies will remain mostly clear
with FEW high level cirrus clouds moving in at the end of the TAF
period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours. Winds
will tend to follow their typical diurnal patterns with extended
periods of light and variable winds expected. Skies will remain
mostly clear with FEW high cirrus clouds moving in tomorrow
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist for the next
several days. Temperatures will gradually warm into early next
week stabilizing at a few degrees above normal starting Monday.
MinRH values will fall to around 10% across the western districts
today and areawide starting on Sunday with poor to fair overnight
recoveries. Light and diurnally driven winds are expected through
at least mid week, with some afternoon upslope breeziness.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Lojero
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Kuhlman