


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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733 FXUS65 KPSR 311129 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 429 AM MST Sun Aug 31 2025 .UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion... && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer-than-normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the Labor Day Weekend - Generally dry conditions are expected to prevail over most of the region into the start of next week, with a slight chance of a shower or storm over the Arizona high terrain - Chances for rainfall increase across the lower deserts by the beginning of the workweek as better moisture begins to envelope the Desert Southwest && .SHORT TERM /Today Through Monday/... Early morning analysis reveals strong upper-level ridging encompassing much of the western CONUS, while a couple of weak disturbances spinning off the West Coast. With high pressure overhead, and drier-than-usual air for this time of year in place, the remainder of the Labor Weekend looks to be dry and relatively warm for this time of year. This setup will promote a continued increase in day-to-day high temperatures across the region, with highs this afternoon running a good five degrees or so above normal for the end of August, which translates to lower desert readings this afternoon ranging between 105 to around 110 degrees in the hottest spots. A very isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out over the high terrain in Gila County, but the vast majority of rainfall activity across the region will be confined to Southeast Arizona and areas around the White Mountains. Heading into Monday, and the start of September, conditions are unlikely to change much as high pressure remains overhead, allowing for and warmer-than-usual start to the month. However, one change that will help setup conditions for the remainder of the week will be a slight shift in the center of circulation of the ridge, switch flow aloft from southwesterly to more of a east/southeast component. This will help bring increasing moisture to the region. However, expectations for any quick ramp-up of monsoonal activity should be tempered as rain chances will primarily increase only for higher terrain areas east of the Phoenix metro. Does this completely exclude lower desert areas from seeing rainfall late Monday? No, as hi-res guidance does hint at the potential for some activity to move off the high terrain and down toward the Phoenix metro. Any lower desert activity would likely be short lived and very hit or miss. The more likely impact over the Phoenix area would be strong outflow winds from distant higher terrain showers and storms. In fact, there is already a decent signal from the HREF of one of these features extending down to the lower deserts, highlighting most of Pinal and the eastern half of Maricopa Counties in a ~50% chance of seeing wind gusts reaching or exceeding 35 mph. Outside of any active conditions they may come to fruition, temperatures Monday will be slightly cooler compared to today, likely a response to increasing moisture, but will continue to run above-normal. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Saturday/... Ensemble forecasts agree that moisture will continue to be on the uptrend across the Desert Southwest heading into the middle of next week, allowing for increasing shower and thunderstorm chances for the region. Parts of the lower deserts may get in on the action as early as Tuesday morning as there are signs that isolated elevated convection, likely set-off by a mid-level wave or perhaps a Sonoran MCV, will be seen over portions of Southwest Arizona and Southeast California. Better moisture availability will actually be over these areas mentioned above compared to the remainder of our forecast area, so it is not out of the question that areas around Joshua Tree NP, along with areas around the Chocolate and Kofa Mountains, see daily isolated activity through much of the week. The mountains of Gila County are also included in on these daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. Else where across the lower deserts of South-Central Arizona, specifically the Phoenix metro, the best chances for rainfall appear to be latter in the workweek, more toward the Thursday- Friday timeframe as a reinforcing push of moisture pushes PWATs closer to 1.5-1.8" or 150% of normal for the beginning of September. Similar to Monday evening, storms outside of this timeframe cannot be completely ruled out, but any convective activity will be heavily reliant on outflow boundaries from distant thunderstorm activity. In terms of temperatures, there appears to be some good news for fans of of more seasonal temperatures. The sub-tropical ridge is projected to weaken slightly thanks to a disturbance expected to develop off the Pacific Coast. This, combined with increasing moisture levels, and the potential for greater rainfall coverage and cloud cover, temperatures will gradually fall through the week and into the weekend, with the potential for many areas not reaching into the triple digits by as early as Friday. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0535Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. Light easterly or variable winds this morning will shift back out of the WSW late this morning. Speeds should remain aob 7 kts at all terminals. Skies will be mostly clear aside from a few passing high clouds. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation concerns are expected through the forecast period under mostly clear skies. Winds will be primarily W to NW at KIPL and W to SW at KBLH through today. Wind speeds should remain aob 6 kts, with periods of calm and vrb possible at both terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Generally dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the long weekend, with the best chances of wetting rains coming Monday over the parts of Gila County. Moisture levels will be on the rise over the next few days, with MinRH values ranging between 10-15% today, increasing to 20-30% by Tuesday. In turn, MaxRHs will follow a similar trend with poor to modest overnight recoveries expected tonight into Monday, becoming more decent by the middle of the week. This increase in moisture will translate to a more active period of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity. Temperatures over the next week will peak today, with lower desert highs nearing 110 degrees, before gradually falling through the week toward below normal levels. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...RW AVIATION...Young/Salerno FIRE WEATHER...RW