795
FXUS65 KPSR 211733
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1033 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry weather system will pass through the Four Corners region
today, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions across
the Lower Colorado River Valley. Otherwise, warm and tranquil
weather will prevail through this weekend and into early next
week. A strong high pressure system is expected to build over the
region starting Sunday before peaking by Wednesday and Thursday.
This will push daily highs across the lower deserts into the
upper 80s by Tuesday to as warm as the lower 90s on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The main forecast concern over the next week or so will be the
unseasonably warm temperatures building across the region next
week with at least Phoenix flirting with daily record highs.
However, in the near term we will continue to see a weather
pattern bringing weak shortwave troughs across or just to the
north of the region through Saturday. These features will keep
temperatures fairly stable across the region through Saturday with
highs from the upper 70s in the Phoenix area to as warm as the
lower 80s in the Yuma/El Centro area. Breezy to locally windy
conditions with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are also anticipated
for this afternoon mainly focused across the Lower CO River
Valley.

Later on Saturday, an upper level ridge positioned to our
southwest will begin spreading across the region with H5 heights
quickly rising to 582-584dm later on Sunday. Peak H5 heights of
around 585dm are expected on Monday before the ridge flattens out
and heights fall back to between 580-582dm through at least next
Thursday. This ridge will allow for a quick warm up Sunday-Tuesday
with highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s by Monday before
likely peaking at or just above 90 degrees during the Tuesday-
Thursday timeframe. Reaching 90 degrees in February is fairly rare
for Phoenix which has only happened four separate times with
February 17, 2016 being the earlier ever. For Yuma and El Centro,
it is less rare, happening at least a dozen times in Yuma and
around 10 times for El Centro. Daily records for Phoenix will also
be in jeopardy during the middle part of next week. Overnight
lows will also get quite warm, especially during the middle part
of next week when lows are likely to range from the mid 50s to the
lower 60s, or around 10 degrees above normal.

Model guidance is still showing a potential shift in the weather
pattern late next week as a Pacific low is likely to develop and
approach the West Coast at some point between next Thursday and
Saturday. Timing and track differences among the ensembles make it
too difficult to know what is exactly in store for our region, but
guidance overall favors the low tracking through our region at
some point next weekend. For now, moisture availability with the
system looks to be fairly low, so any prospects for rain is also
low. We should however at least see a cooling trend by next
weekend, but so far NBM guidance indicates temperatures will
remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1735Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major weather concerns will exist through Saturday morning
under a period of SCT high clouds with bases AOA 15 kft AGL this
afternoon and otherwise SKC skies. Confidence is high that winds
will follow similar timing as the past 24 hours, albeit with
speeds slightly weaker. Periods of calm and light variability are
expected during diurnal wind shifts and tonight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty north winds through this afternoon at KBLH will be the
greatest weather impact during the TAF period under mostly clear
skies. Gusts should peak between 20-25 kts at KBLH, whereas
occasional gusts into the teens will be possible at KIPL.
Northerly winds will back out of the NW-W this evening at both
terminals, with speeds relaxing during the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend with
strong high pressure quickly building into region by Sunday.
Expect breezy conditions again this afternoon across portions of
southeast California into the Lower CO River Valley before overall
light winds are seen starting Saturday. Low humidities will
continue during the period with MinRHs mainly between 10-15% and
fair to poor overnight recoveries to around 25-30%. Unseasonably
warm temperatures are then forecast for next week while dry
conditions persist.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures next week:

Date         Phoenix           Yuma         El Centro
----         -------           ----         ---------
Feb 24      91 in 1904      93 in 1986      92 in 1986
Feb 25      92 in 1921      95 in 1986      94 in 1986
Feb 26      91 in 1986      96 in 1986      95 in 1986
Feb 27      92 in 1986      95 in 1986      96 in 1986
Feb 28      89 in 1986      97 in 1986      92 in 1986

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Whittock/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...18