221
FXUS65 KPSR 140944
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
244 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The unseasonably warm weather will continue for one more day
  across much of Arizona with highs in the low to mid 80s this
  afternoon.

- The first in a series of three weather systems will arrive over
  the weekend bringing widespread accumulating rainfall but
  little impacts.

- Temperatures are expected to cool well below normal by Sunday
  and last through all of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The first of three weather systems is slowly inching its way
toward our region with the low center likely staying just off the
California coast through Saturday. However, the broader trough
will gradually push into western portions of our region today into
Saturday and into Arizona on Sunday. For today, upper level
ridging will still dominate over the bulk of the Desert Southwest
bringing another day of highs in the 80s and fairly sunny skies
across the Arizona lower deserts.

Farther to the west, portions of southeast California are likely
to see some light showers today with fairly cloudy skies. Rainfall
amounts through this evening are expected to be less than 0.10".
Once the weather system finally begins to progress to the east
tonight into Saturday, the shower activity is expected to increase
across southeast California with some isolated to scattered
showers eventually becoming possible into Arizona. Showers across
southeast California should become moderate at times with
localized rainfall rates of 0.25-0.50" possible. Fairly steady
rainfall is expected Saturday morning across southeast California
before slowly diminishing during the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Total rainfall amounts for southeast California are
likely to average between 0.25-0.60" across the lower deserts to
upwards of an inch or so across JTNP.

By Saturday night into Sunday, the main low is forecast to move
northeastward through central California into Nevada with a
secondary shortwave trough quickly moving across southern
California into Arizona. Periods of showers and potentially some
isolated embedded thunderstorms are expected to affect much of
southern and central Arizona Saturday night through Sunday
morning before transitioning more across the eastern Arizona high
terrain Sunday afternoon. Guidance has been gradually lowering
expected rainfall amounts for much of Arizona due to missing the
main energy from the system, but average amounts are still likely
to reach 0.25-0.60" across the lower deserts. Higher amounts of
0.50-1.00" are forecast for higher terrain locations north and
east of the Phoenix area with the activity quickly diminishing by
Sunday evening.

The slower progression of the weather system is also delaying our
cooler temperatures. Saturday will see slightly cooler
temperatures, but it should still be quite mild for most
locations with highs from the lower 70s across southeast
California to around 80 degrees in the Phoenix area. Once the
cold front passes through the entire area Saturday night, daytime
highs for Sunday will drop into the lower 70s across all of the
lower deserts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Next week is still shaping up to be an active weather week with
the second weather system impacting our region Monday night
through at least Tuesday and possibly even well into Wednesday.
Model uncertainty is still fairly high with the exact timing and
the progression of this second low pressure system, but it is a
nearly certainty it will impact our region with fairly decent
chances for accumulating rainfall across the bulk of the area.
This next system will be similar in size to this weekend`s system,
but moisture levels will be a good deal lower. However, it is
slated to be a noticeably colder system which will somewhat offset
the lower moisture levels. Potential QPF amounts will be
considerably lower than this weekend`s system across southeast
California due to a northwesterly trajectory, but much of Arizona
may see similar rainfall amounts. Based on the current timing, the
best rainfall chances will probably fall on Tuesday, but that
very well could change given it is four days off. Even though the
system will be colder, snow levels are still expected to remain
quite high with levels mostly staying above 6500 feet. For now,
models favor the system to eventually exit the region by late
Wednesday or Thursday with a third weather system following behind
by around next Friday and/or Saturday.

Temperatures next week are likely to stay fairly stable given the
active weather and elevated humidities lasting all week. Forecast
highs do dip more into the 60s by the middle part of next week
with readings likely staying below 70 degrees through the rest of
next week. Overnight temperatures should stay relatively mild due
to the fairly persistent cloud cover and higher humidities with
lows mostly ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0538Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through Friday night
under increasing high clouds. Winds will continue to follow
diurnal tendencies with light speeds, aob 7 kts. Expect extended
periods of variable or calm conditions to continue throughout the
period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through Friday night
under SCT-BKN mid and high clouds. Light westerly winds will
prevail at KIPL through the TAF period, with periods of light
variability. Light variable winds will prevail at KBLH through
Friday morning and then favor a south to west component Friday
afternoon through the evening. Rain showers will likely not move
into terminal ranges until mid-morning Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large weather system will slowly move through the region
through the weekend bringing cooler temperatures, increased
humidities, and widespread rainfall. Today will remain dry for all
but portions of southern California with MinRHs between 20-25%
over the eastern districts to 30-40% for western districts.
Widespread wetting rains are then likely for Saturday for the
western districts and on Sunday for the eastern districts. MinRHs
will also rise to 40-60% over the weekend. Expect light winds
today before we see periodic breezy conditions over the weekend.
The active weather will continue through next week with another
weather system affecting the area by Tuesday and another later in
the week. Expect below normal temperatures and elevated humidities
for all of next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for
     CAZ560.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman