Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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641 FXUS65 KPSR 092005 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 105 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather with dry conditions will continue through next week. Temperatures will warm towards near normal levels early in the week with additional warming into an above normal range by the latter half of the week. A changing weather pattern next weekend may result in more unsettled conditions across the region. && .DISCUSSION... Dampened ridging was building into the SW Conus early this afternoon as an occluded cyclone was slowly ejecting through the central plains while strong jet energy and a pinched trough approached the west coast. Objective analysis indicates H5 heights have already rebounded near 576dm across the forecast area with additional modest height rises likely over the next 24-36 hours. As a result, confidence is very good that temperatures will return into a near normal range the next couple days. Progressive/zonal flow will continue through next week as ensembles have consolidated on a solution of a full latitudinal trough progressing through western CONUS, albeit with the primary vorticity center and forced ascent passing north of the CWA Tuesday. Given the displaced nature to this system, only a brief, modest cooling should be expected with readings still hovering not far from climatology. Otherwise, more pronounced broad ridging and continuation of dry conditions will be the main weather story the latter half of the week as H5 heights near or exceed 585dm. While ensemble guidance spread is still rather wide given uncertainty in the ultimate magnitude of the high pressure bubble, all indications suggest further warming and temperatures reaching 4F-8F above normal. However, this warm spell should be rather short lived as a more energetic/amplified trough digs towards the SW Conus over the weekend. The NAEFS ensemble suite during this time frame generally falls into 3 camps: 1) a narrow, positively tilted trough only skirting the region with minimal overall impacts, 2) a primarily overland trajectory to a deepening negative PV anomaly filling into a trough base over Arizona creating very good ascent mechanisms, but accessing limited moisture flux, and 3) a westward shifted, quite intense PV anomaly able to incorporate and entrain Pacific moisture resulting in a wet, unsettled period just beyond this forecast period. At this time, a preponderance of solutions would support outcome #2, however enough evidence exists and only subtle differences separate this from outcome #3. Not surprisingly, model spread is quite large towards the end of the forecast period, however almost all modeling supports at least a period of slightly below normal temperatures beginning next weekend. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns under some passing high cirrus decks can be expected through the next 24 hours. The overall wind pattern will continue to feature diurnal tendencies with light speeds aob 5 kts along with extended periods of light variability to calm conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Temperatures will gradually warm closer to near normal levels through early next week with even warmer conditions late in the week. Winds will follow a typical diurnal upslope/nocturnal drainage component with only some modest morning ridge top gustiness during the middle of the week. MinRHs will fall mostly in a 10-15% range through next week with readings closer to 20-25% over higher terrain of eastern districts. Overnight recovery will be better in the eastern districts, mostly between 40-60% with poor to fair overnight recovery (around 20-40%) in lower elevations and western districts. Overall, dry weather will persist through late next week with conditions remaining favorable for any prescribed burning operations. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...18 AVIATION...Lojero FIRE WEATHER...18/Young