320
FXUS65 KPSR 212310
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
410 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with pockets of moderate rainfall will continue
across southeast California and southwest Arizona with a Flood Watch
in effect through this evening.

- This weather system will keep moving east Saturday and Sunday
bringing scattered showers to central and eastern Arizona.

- Temperatures will remain below normal this weekend, then return to
near normal level by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The secondary upper level trough that originate from the Pacific NW
has now made it just off the coast of Southern CA. With it brought
an increase in low to mid level moisture across SE CA and SW AZ.
This has bumped PWATS to ~0.9-1.1" in the western parts of our
region, bringing additional rounds of showers this morning with
rainfall totals already between 0.5-.8" across most of the Lower
Colorado River area. A Flood Watch remains in effect through 11pm
PST/12am MST tonight as another 0.25-0.50" can be expected
throughout this afternoon/evening. Fortunately or unfortunately,
depending if you view the glass half full or half empty, the core of
this current weather system is expected to move more quickly than
the previous system and is forecasted to be over SE CA/SW AZ by late
Saturday night. This will keep temperatures below normal for a
couple more days with highs barely tipping over 60 degrees today, in
the low to mid 60s Saturday, and warming slightly Sunday with highs
in the high 60s to near 70 in some locations.

For Central and Eastern AZ PWATS are currently ~0.4-0.6", but will
increase to just shy of 1" by early Sunday morning as the trough
moves northeastward through Central AZ. this will have activity
lingering throughout the weekend but, most activity will remain
light/sprinkles and most may only be virga showers for the Phoenix
Metro, and potential for 0.1-0.2" in the higher terrain and Gila
County. Models show no instability with this round of activity, so
no thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern portions of
the state. Similar to the western portions of our region, afternoon
highs are expected to remain below normal for a few more days with
temperatures throughout Central AZ peaking today in the mid 60s,
warming slightly for Saturday to the low 70s, then cooling back to
the mid 60s on Sunday as the low pressure system exits our region.
As just mentioned the low will be east of AZ Sunday night and
quickly advect into the Plains on Monday. By then PWATS across the
Desert SW will be back to under 0.7" nilling further shower activity
by Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As we move into next week calm and tranquil weather conditions make
a return to the Desert Southwest. The low pressure system that will
bring rain to the region this weekend will be well to the east of
the region by Monday. In the wake of the low pressure system,
heights aloft will be around 574-577 dm on Monday slowly rising to
around 578-581 dm by Thursday. This will result in a gradual warming
trend through the workweek, with temperatures returning to near
normal as early as Tuesday. Across the lower deserts afternoon high
temperatures are forecasted to range from the mid 60s to low 70s
rising to the low to mid 70s by the end of the workweek. For the
higher terrain areas, afternoon highs on Monday will be in the low
60s rising to the upper 60s to low 70s by the end of the workweek.
Additionally morning lows will range from the mid 40s to low 50s
across the lower deserts and in the low to mid 40s across the higher
terrain through the workweek. With rising heights aloft, forecast
confidence is very good that dry conditions will prevail through
this coming workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2310Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Some variability in wind directions this evening, then the potential
for SHRA Saturday evening are the primary weather issues under
cloud decks with bases 080-100 AGL. While the pressure gradient will
favor a N/NE wind direction this evening, a counter-intuitive light
SW wind may develop at KPHX for several hours before east winds take
over the area after midnight. Confidence is very good that east
winds will prevail much of Saturday morning and afternoon before
becoming S/SW around sunset, and prior to the arrival of SHRA and
lower CIGS Saturday evening.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Periods of SHRA, MVFR cigs, and potential for MVFR vsby will be
weather issues through Saturday afternoon before conditions begin to
slowly improve. With north winds prevailing, conditions should be
worst and persist the longest at KIPL where MVFR cigs will be common
through the evening with periodic SHRA. Confidence is very good of
SHRA ended at KBLH with improving conditions at KBLH by sunrise.
However, continued SHRA with the potential for reduced vsby and
lowered cigs will continue into Saturday morning, and at least
early afternoon at KIPL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Below normal temperatures and elevated moisture will remain in place
keeping MinRHs in a 40-70% range following excellent overnight
recovery greater than 80%. Locally gusty winds upwards of 20 mph
will be possible at times, though weaker wind speeds will be more
common through the period. A weather system will be  moving mainly
across the western districts today leading to very good chances for
wetting rains with more scattered shower activity across the eastern
districts Saturday through Sunday, with Sunday expected to be the
final day of activity. Temperatures will mostly remain below normal
through the weekend with humidities staying elevated. Temperatures
will return to near normal as early as Tuesday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Flood Watch through this evening for AZZ530>533-535-536.

CA...Flood Watch through this evening for CAZ560>570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Berislavich