472
FXUS65 KPSR 240918
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
218 AM MST Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue their below normal stretch through
  Wednesday, with near to above normal readings returning by
  Thursday as high pressure builds over the region

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms over eastern
  portions of Arizona through the workweek, with a very slight
  chance (10 to 25 percent) of a shower over southern Gila County
  late this morning and into the afternoon

- Dry conditions prevail elsewhere through the weekend with daily
  afternoon and evening breeziness (gusts 15 to 25 mph) being
  common


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lingering low pressure continues to hover over the West Coast and
Great Basin, providing a decent swath of the western CONUS with
below normal temperatures for this point in June. Temperatures
yesterday did bump up a few degrees compared to the day prior and
that warming trend is expected to continue through the remainder of
the workweek. This gradual warmup can be contributed to the
weakening of the aforementioned low, and the building of higher
heights aloft, signaling the presence of warmer air throughout the
column. NBM has afternoon highs pushing closer to near and above
normal levels by Thursday, with some locations reaching back close
to 110 degrees by Friday.

Some parts of Arizona, mainly eastern portions, will start to see a
bit of some seasonal monsoon action as better moisture pushes into
the state. However, most of our forecast area will remain dry as the
axis of decent monsoonal moisture will remain too far to the east to
produce showers and thunderstorms over most of south-central
Arizona. The one exception to this appears to be over southern
Gila County, where CAMs are picking up on some late morning and
afternoon rainfall activity, mainly from the Globe area and
eastward. Models do indicate some modest mid-level moisture
reaching over this area, but a source of lift will be needed.
Well, that will come in the form of orographic influences and
even a subtle gravity wave than can be seen in early morning WV
imagery. This combination of factors may provide just enough to
spark some shower and isolated thunderstorms. PoPs over southern
Gila County are low, only 10-25%, as there is a very wide gap
between what CAMs are indicating as some show activity, while
others show all rainfall remaining completely outside of our area,
the latter being the majority.

What little rain chances there are over our are will be wiped out by
Wednesday as the axis of greatest moisture shifts further east,
closer to the Arizona/New Mexico border. Areas of far southeastern
AZ and up toward the White Mountains will continue to see daily rain
chances continue through the remainder of the workweek, but most of
the state will remain dry through the next several days due to the
absence of widespread monsoonal moisture. With relatively dry air in
place and increasing heights aloft, the return of afternoon
temperatures hovering close to 110-115 degrees is not too far off as
readings at these levels should be common across the lower deserts
by the late weekend and the start of next week.

For those of you looking forward to more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, there is some good news. Global ensembles indicate
that by next week, better moisture will begin to push further into
Arizona, allowing for better chances for rainfall across a broader
area of the state. There are some signs that point toward the
presence of another weak trough that could help inhibit the advance
of decent enough moisture by keeping more dry southwesterly flow in
place, or even cut the residence time of this initial push of
moisture short. However, ensemble trends signaling better
moisture by early July is certainly a step in the right direction
to see the beginnings of more expansive rainfall activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Occasionally gusty winds with a southerly cross runway component
will be the primary weather impact Tuesday under clear skies.
Confidence is good that a W/SW wind direction late this evening will
eventually shift to easterly overnight as speeds weaken. Trends in
winds Tuesday will be very similar to today including good
confidence of a prolonged period of southerly cross runway winds
gusting around 15kt through midday before veering to SW by mid/late
afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Tuesday evening under
clear skies. Wind speeds will weaken overnight with some potential
for variability around sunrise. Directional shifts at KIPL will be
similar to today though gusts should be more muted Tuesday. South
winds will be preferred at KBLH with a few afternoon gusts 15-20kt.
While likely not directly impacting sfc visibilities, lofted
smoke/haze may affect occasionally affect slantwise visibilities
during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of some isolated dry thunderstorm impacts for parts of
Gila County this afternoon, no significant fire weather concerns
are expected over the next several days. Winds (outside of any
potential thunderstorm winds) will follow familiar diurnal trends
with typical afternoon and evening breeziness, gusting to 15-25
mph. Daily MinRH values over the next few days will only run
between 5-15% and overnight recoveries will not offer much relief
as readings hover between 20-40% for most areas. Below normal
temperatures will continue through Wednesday but we gradually warm
through the rest of the week with lower desert highs reaching
near 110 degrees by Saturday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RW
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RW