037
FXUS65 KPSR 251132
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
432 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another morning of patchy fog in low lying areas and river
  valleys will burn off by 9-11am LST.

- Dry and tranquil weather conditions are expected through the
  workweek with temperatures near to slightly above normal.

- Another weather system will bring much cooler temperatures and rain
  chances to the region late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clear skies in combination with remaining surface moisture from this
past weekend`s rain has once again resulted in patchy fog across low
lying areas and river valleys. Isolated areas of dense fog
(visibility less than 1 mile) will be likely again this morning. Be
prepared for sudden reductions in visibility and drivers should
exercise caution when encountering any fog during the morning
commute. The fog should burn off by 9-11am LST.

Water vapor satellite imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis early
this morning show a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific
along with a trough in the upper Plains and another one entering the
Midwest. The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will slowly
move eastward over the next few days, becoming centered over our
area by Wednesday night. As the ridge of high pressure moves
overhead heights aloft will gradually rise, maxing out around
584-586 dm Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in gradually
warming temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures today will be in
the low 70s across the lower deserts and in the mid to upper 60s
across the higher terrain. Temperatures will peak on
Wednesday/Thursday, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s across the lower deserts and in the mid 60s to low 70s
across the higher terrain. Morning lows will be in the mid 40s to
low 50s, with the warmer temps in more urban areas. With the ridge
moving through the region over the next few days, it will promote
the continuation of dry and tranquil weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Friday a weak shortwave trough will move through the region.
This will result in lowering heights aloft, with 500 mb heights
will lower to around 575-577 dm. This will result in temperatures
cooling a degree or two, but will remain above normal. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid 70s across the lower deserts
and in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain. Dry
conditions will persist on Friday.

By this weekend and into early next week, global ensemble members
all show a deep trough traversing the region. They still differ a
little on the exact timing, but tend to favor sometime in the Sunday-
Tuesday window. They are in good agreement that this trough will be
taking an inland trajectory down from the Pacific NW and not move
down along the eastern Pacific Ocean and then move inland like the
last low pressure system did. With this trough taking an inland
trajectory the system won`t be bringing a lot of moisture to the
region. PWATs currently look to only rise to a 0.5-0.7" range (the
ECMWF has PWATs in a 0.5-0.7" range, the GEFS has PWATs staying
below 0.6", and the Canadian Ensemble has PWATs only in a 0.3-0.4"
range). This increase in moisture (in combination with forcing from
the trough and terrain itself) would likely support showers across
the higher elevations to the north and east of the Phoenix Metro.
Showers across the lower deserts will likely be harder to come by,
with this amount of moisture, and would need more help than that of
the higher terrain areas. Nevertheless, another weather system will
be moving through the region by early next week and would support
showers across at least some portions of the CWA along with cooling
temperatures. With this weather system temperatures look to cool
back off below normal. Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1130Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Winds will be light with extended periods of VRB to calm
conditions. Patchy fog can be seen on satellite imagery, but is
mainly to the south and west of the Phoenix Metro. This fog may
become dense (visibility less than 1 mile), however no impacts to
the terminals is expected. Winds will follow their typical diurnal
tendencies with speeds generally aob 6 kt. Extended periods of
light and variable to calm winds are also expected, especially
during diurnal transitions. Besides a FEW passing high clouds
Tuesday afternoon, skies will be mostly clear.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concern will be the potential for FG to impact
both sites. Reduced visibilities have already been observed at
some point during the overnight hours at both terminals. But now
the fog has moved SW of KBLH and dense fog is just north and east
of the KIPL terminal. Therefore, VCFG remains in the TAFs at this
time. The addition of a TEMPO group with VIS down to 5SM and BR
has been added to the KIPL TAF between 13-15Z, which is when
models show the denser fog trying to get into KIPL. Otherwise,
winds will be light with extended periods of VRB to calm
conditions through Tuesday morning before a N/NW component is
established later in the forecast window. Other than the VCFG/FG
this morning skies will be mostly clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will continue through the
workweek with temperatures slightly above average. MinRHs today
will be around 30-50%, with overnight recovery around 60-80%. For
the remainder of the workweek, minRHs will drop to 20-35% with
overnight recoveries remaining in the 60-80% range. By this
weekend and into early next week another weather system will move
through the region cooling temperatures back off below normal and
bringing another chance for showers and wetting rains to the
region. Winds will remain light and follow their normal diurnal
tendencies with only marginal upslope gusts into the upper teens
to low 20s.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich