715
FXUS65 KPSR 201036
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
336 AM MST Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure and drier conditions will continue through the
rest of the weekend bringing near normal temperatures for today.
Seasonably dry and tranquil weather conditions will prevail
through most of the upcoming work week with temperatures
averaging slightly above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The  latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper-level
low that brought some active conditions Friday night is now
approaching Texas. Following that system drier air is funneling
into he region from the NW. Now as higher 500mb heights position
over the region today`s temperatures will be near normal, with
the lower deserts expecting mid to high 80s and the higher
terrains mid to high 70s.

Benign quasi-zonal flow pattern sets up across the Desert
Southwest starting today and very likely lingers through the
upcoming work week. Starting Monday temperatures will warm to 4-6
degrees above normal, in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and hold
strong with little variance day to day throughout the week.
Heading into next weekend models are showing another troughing
system approaching the west coast, however confidence is low in
the depth and strength of this system. This low confidence is
shown in the NBM starting Saturday as the 25th-75th percentiles
have a 4-7 degree spread. A deeper solution would result in an
overall cooling trend while a more shallower solution would
maintain temperatures running above normal. Depending on the
depth of the trough, an increase in gradient winds could
materialize, bringing breezier conditions to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1035Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Overall winds will tend to follow their typical diurnal patterns
with speeds generally aob 8 kt. Skies will remain clear for much
of today before we see increasing high level cirrus clouds
tonight into Monday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours. Winds
will tend to follow their typical diurnal patterns with extended
periods of light and variable winds expected. Skies will remain
mostly clear with increasing high cirrus clouds starting this
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist for the next
several days. Temperatures will gradually warm into early next
week stabilizing at a few degrees above normal starting Monday.
MinRH values will fall to around 10% areawide starting on today
with poor to fair overnight recoveries. Light and diurnally driven
winds are expected through at least mid week, with some afternoon
upslope breeziness.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Ryan
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan