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Oregon Peak Flow Forecast National Weather Service Portland OR 1215
PM PST Tuesday Mar 10 2026

OREGON WATER SUPPLY SUMMARY AS OF March 10TH, 2026

The water supply forecast for the spring and summer of 2026 is below
average for most of the Oregon watersheds, ranging from near normal
along the Columbia River to below 40% of normal water supply in
Southeast Oregon.  It is forecasted that overall river peaks in
Oregon are likely to be lower than the 30 year normal depending on
elevation, temperature, and snow accumulation, with a low likelihood
of exceeding flood stage. Note that conditions and water supply
forecasts may evolve through the rest of winter and spring.
Precipitation so far this water year (Oct 2025 to Feb 2026) is near
to below average for most of the center of the state, with the
central northern and southern border near to above average.
Temperatures for the water year are overall above average statewide
with even higher deviations above average (1991 -2020) present east
of the cascades. As of March 3rd, over 20% of Oregon is in drought.

Refer to the sections below and links provided for additional
details and updates through the summer regarding precipitation,
seasonal climate outlooks, reservoirs, streamflow, and water supply
forecasts.

More information can be found :
www.weather.gov/media/pqr/WaterSupplyOutlook.pdf




Peak Stream Flow Forecast Peak stream flow will be determined by
when the snow starts to rapidly melt off. It is forecasted that
overall river peaks in Oregon are likely to be lower than the 30
year normal depending on elevation, temperature, and snow
accumulation, with a low likelihood of exceeding flood stage. As of
March 11th, there are 4 basins in Oregon with a 10% probability of
peak flow exceeding threshold:  Grand Ronde at Troy, Wilson River
near Tillamook, Pudding River at Aurora, and Imnaha River at Imnaha.
The majority of the basins in the state are more likely to have
their river flow peak in March and April. Higher elevation
watersheds have a low potential to peak in June. These dates and
timings can be significantly altered with differences in future
precipitation, temperature, and flow regulation. More details per
site can be seen on the NWRFC website on peakflow.

Snow water Equivalent amounts, outlooks, and previous peaks can help
forecast these values and timing. Most of Oregon`s snow water
equivalent amounts are lower than normal peak amounts.  It is
forecasted that river peaks will overall be lower than the 30 year
normal with timing near or earlier than normal depending on
elevation, temperature, and snow density. NWRFC has extensive
forecast that can be seen at
https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/ws/index.html?version=20190313v1. CBRFC
has forecasted southern Oregon Peak flows in late April and May.
More information at cnrfc.noaa.gov/water_resources_update.php
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS OREGON In February,
precipitation ranged from  below average around the Deschutes basin
and above 190% at The Dalles . Due to the overall statewide 120%
increase in February, the overall precipitation values are closer to
normal from the start of the water year. Precipitation for the 2026
water year thus far (Oct 2025  Feb 2026) ranges from below average
in the center of the state near the Deschutes basin to above average
amounts in the Harney Basin, around The Dalles, and north west of
the coastal range . Southwest Oregon is below normal with the
Coquille River basin reaching 58% of normal precipitation.
Temperatures across the state have been above average for the 2026
water year (October 2025  February 2026), with an average anomaly
of 4.3 degrees above normal. Higher elevations, including the
Cascades and parts of the Coast Range, saw temperatures 1 to 3
degrees above average. Eastern Oregon experienced even warmer
conditions, averaging 2.5 to 5 degrees above normal for the water
year. Details on precipitation and temperatures:
* NOAA National Weather Service - Northwest River Forecast Center
  www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply/wy_summary/wy_summary.php
*  NOAA NWS - California-Nevada River Forecast Center (Klamath
   basin) www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/water_resources_update.php
* Westside Drought Tracker Precipitation & Temperature graphics
  Climate Mapper SNOWPACK ACROSS OREGON As of March 5, 2026,
  mountain snowpack is significantly below average statewide, in
  terms of the water content of the snowpack. In terms of percent of
  median, basin values range from 22% to 85%. More snow accumulation
  is possible through April although given the low snowpack as of
  early March, it is unlikely to bounce back to average levels.
 Additional snowpack information:
*  NOAA National Weather Service - Northwest River Forecast Center
   www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/
*  USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service  nwcc-
   apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/ PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
   The Climate Prediction Center issues monthly and seasonal
   outlooks that weigh the likelihood of near-normal, above-normal,
   or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. The temperature
   outlook does not show a strong trend for spring. However, above-
   normal temperatures are predicted for the summer months.
   Similarly, while the overall precipitation outlook lacks a strong
   signal, below-normal precipitation is favored in the early summer
   months, shown lower right.
Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more about seasonal outlooks.

ENSO conditions transition from La Nia advisory this month to ENSO-
neutral, with ENSO-neutral likely persisting through the Northern
Hemisphere summer ( June-August 2026). Beginning February 1st, the
official ENSO index is the Relative Oceanic Nio index (RONI), which
is the traditional ONI with the tropical mean (20S-20N) sea surface
temperature anomalies subtracted out. For more information on RONI,
please examine this 2-page flyer:
https://www.weather.gov/media/climateservices/RONI.pdf  RESERVOIRS

Reservoir data is provided by the Natural Resources Conservation
Service, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the US Army Corps of
Engineers. Irrigation reservoirs range in their storage based on the
available water inflowing into their system and their release
schedule. The Umatilla River basin Reservoirs are about a third
full, Southeastern Oregon reservoir is about halfway full, and the
Deschutes and Rogue Reservoir systems are about two third full.
Owyhee, located in southeast Oregon, is the largest irrigation
reservoir in the state. It has observed storage of about 446,000
acre-feet, which is 62 percent of capacity and 130 percent of
average for this time of year.
Reservoir storage for reservoirs across the western portion of the
state is generally below average ranging from 4 to 42% of the
expected elevation. The main exceptions are reservoirs in the
western headwaters of the Willamette, where reservoir storage ranges
7-22% above the rules curve. Flood control reservoirs in western
Oregon will gradually refill through the late winter and spring.
Additional reservoir information:
* www.nwd-wc.usace.army.mil/nwp/teacup/willamette/
* www.usbr.gov/pn/hydromet/select.html
* www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/basin.html


OBSERVED STREAMFLOW Observed runoff so far this water year has been
below normal conditions for most watersheds statewide, particularly
so for watersheds in south  and east Oregon. The only areas with
near-average runoff are northwest Oregon, near the Coast Range.
Since last month, Eastern Oregon Runoff near Owyhee Dam, Umatilla,
and Grand Ronde have departed from normal by more than 10%.
Visit waterwatch.usgs.gov for details on observed streamflow. Runoff
data is available at www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/natural/index.html at water
year and monthly time scales for several locations in  Oregon.

WATER SUPPLY SEASONAL FORECASTS

Water supply forecasts for April-September runoff volume are below
normal for most Oregon watersheds, with the exception being near the
coastal range in northwest Oregon and near The Dalles where it is
near normal conditions. Central Eastern Oregons water supply is
near or below 50% of water supply normals.
The forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles, which is a good
index of conditions across the Columbia Basin, is 94 percent of
average for April-September.



 Details on basin-scale water supply forecasts:
*  NOAA NWS - Northwest River Forecast Center  www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/ws/
*  NOAA NWS - California-Nevada RFC (Klamath basin)
   www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/water_resources_update.php
*  USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
   www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/wsf/


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