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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
564 FGUS76 KPQR 111817 ESFPQR Water Supply Outlook National Weather Service Portland OR 1015 AM PST Tuesday Feb 11 2025 ...OREGON WATER SUPPLY SUMMARY AS OF FEBRUARY 11TH 2025... The water supply forecast for the spring and summer of 2025 is near to slightly below average for western and far-northeast Oregon watersheds and above average for far-southwest, central and southeast Oregon watersheds. Note that conditions and water supply forecasts may evolve significantly through the rest of winter and spring. Precipitation so far this water year (Oct 2024 - Jan 2025) is near to above average for most of the state, except below average for northwest and far-northeast Oregon. Temperatures for the water year thus far are generally near average for lower elevations, including most populated areas, and above average for the Coast Range, Cascades, Blues, and other mountain ranges of central and eastern Oregon. Refer to the sections below and links provided for additional details and updates through the summer regarding precipitation, seasonal climate outlooks, reservoirs, streamflow, and water supply forecasts. The next update to this outlook will be issued in early March 2025. PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS OREGON Precipitation for the 2025 water year thus far (Oct 2024 - Jan 2025) ranges from about 90 to 110 percent of average in Oregon. The lowest values relative to normal are in northwest and far-northeast Oregon. The highest are in southeast and portions of southwest Oregon. January precipitation was below average statewide, ranging from 45 to 75 percent of average. Temperatures for the 2025 water year thus far (Oct 2024 - Jan 2025) were near average for lower elevations throughout the state. Temperatures were 1 to 3 degrees above average for higher elevations, including the Cascades, Blue Mountains, other mountain ranges in central and eastern Oregon, and portions of the Coast Range. January temperatures were 1 to 2 degrees below average for most of the state but 1 to 3 degrees above average for the Cascades. Details on precipitation and temperatures: NOAA National Weather Service - Northwest River Forecast Center www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply/wy_summary/wy_summary.php NOAA NWS - California-Nevada River Forecast Center (Klamath basin) www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/water_resources_update.php Westwide Drought Tracker Precipitation & Temperature graphics wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/index.php?region=or SNOWPACK ACROSS OREGON As of February 10, 2025, mountain snowpack is above average statewide, in terms of the water content of the snowpack. In terms of percent of median, values range from 105% to 180% and across the southern part of Oregon. Significant snow accumulation is possible through March for southern Oregon and through April for northern Oregon. Additional snowpack information: NOAA National Weather Service - Northwest River Forecast Center www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/snow/ USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/ PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK The Climate Prediction Center produces monthly and seasonal outlooks, in which there is a weighing of the odds of near normal, above normal, or below normal temperatures and precipitation. ENSO conditions are weak La Nina as of late January and are projected to transition to neutral conditions spring 2025. The outlook for February through April is for an enhanced likelihood of below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation statewide. Conditions trend toward average later in the spring, with an enhanced likelihood of above-average temperatures and below- average precipitation this summer. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more about seasonal outlooks. RESERVOIRS Reservoir storage for irrigation reservoirs across the state is generally above average. The main exceptions are reservoirs in southwest Oregon, where reservoir storage ranges from 45 to 65 percent of capacity and generally below average. Flood control reservoirs in western Oregon will gradually refill through the late winter and spring. Owyhee, located in southeast Oregon, is the largest irrigation reservoir in the state. It has observed storage of about 539,000 acre-feet, which is 75 percent of capacity and 170 percent of average for this time of year. Reservoir data is provided by the Natural Resources Conservation Service, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the US Army Corps of Engineers. Additional reservoir information: www.nwd-wc.usace.army.mil/nwp/teacup/willamette/ www.usbr.gov/pn/hydromet/select.html www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/basin.html OBSERVED STREAMFLOW Observed runoff so far this water year has been above average for most watersheds statewide, particularly so for watersheds in central and southweast Oregon. The only areas with below-average runoff are northwest and far-northeast Oregon. Visit waterwatch.usgs.gov for details on observed streamflow. Runoff data is available at www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/natural/index.html at water year and monthly time scales for several locations in Oregon. WATER SUPPLY SEASONAL FORECASTS Water supply forecasts for April-September runoff volume are near to slightly below average for western and far-northeast Oregon watersheds, ranging from 70 to 100 percent. Forecasts are above average for far-southwest, central and southeast Oregon watersheds, ranging from 105 to 200 percent. The forecast for the Columbia River at The Dalles, which is a good index of conditions across the Columbia Basin, is 86 percent of average for April-September. Details on basin-scale water supply forecasts: NOAA NWS - Northwest River Forecast Center www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/ws/ NOAA NWS - California-Nevada RFC (Klamath basin) www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/water_resources_update.php USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/wsf/ $$