641
FXUS66 KPQR 151156
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
355 AM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Light rain early this morning is expected to dissipate
by sunrise as conditions trend mainly dry today. A deep upper-level
trough will drop south Monday into Tuesday, bringing cooler, more
unstable conditions and lowering snow levels to around 500 to 1500
feet. Unsettled and showery weather is likely to persist through
much of next week. There is around a 10% chance for a scenario
occurring that could bring an inch or two of snow down to the valley
floor mid to late week. Snow levels slowly rise again next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Saturday...Light rain early this morning
is expected to give way to drier conditions today as we briefly
transition in a relative lull between systems. Expect seasonable
temperatures today.

A pattern change is in store for next week which will feature cold
upper level troughing and modified Arctic air, allowing snow levels
to drop to their lowest levels this winter:

An initial shortwave trough will drop south out of the Gulf of
Alaska on Monday. This feature will push a cold front toward the
region Monday morning. At the same time, model solutions are
trending toward a deformation band setting up across the central and
north Oregon Cascades. Snow levels over the Cascades will still be
relatively high, at around 4000-4500 ft. This will likely limit the
snowfall Monday morning to pass levels. By Monday afternoon, colder
air aloft will be filtering across the entire area west of the
Cascades. Increasing instability will support more widespread
showers on Monday while snow levels lower to around 1000 to 1500 ft
by Monday evening.  There is increasing confidence for advisory
level snowfall in the Cascades as guidance suggests there is around
a 40-60% chance of exceeding 6 inches at pass level. Snowfall
amounts in the Coast Range through Monday night remain low
confidence, but there is potential for at least advisory level snow
there as well. A lot will depend on the location of the surface low
as it drops south into the coastal waters of Washington or north
Oregon as another shortwave trough rotates around the parent trough,
potentially intensifying showers near the coast and into the Coast
Range overnight.

Ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement that an anomalously
deep upper level trough settles over the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday, while 850 mb temperatures fall to around -5 to -6 C. Low
pressure offshore will likely maintain an unstable and showery
pattern. While overall precipitation amounts do not appear
especially high at this time, light snow accumulation above roughly
1000 feet will remain possible through midweek.

Looking toward the latter half of the week, troughing persists
across the region, keeping conditions cool and periodically showery.
Potential for more substantial Cascade snowfall has generally
decreased as guidance indicates a 10 to 20% probability of exceeding
12 inches in 24 hours in the higher Cascades. In the Coast Range,
including passes along Highways 6 and 26, probabilities of exceeding
4 inches during that same period are similarly around 10 to 20%.

Ensemble guidance also continues to indicate a low-probability
winter weather scenario for the lowlands next week. Current
solutions suggest roughly a 10% chance that a more organized
disturbance Wednesday night into Thursday could result in producing
accumulating snow in portions of the lowland valleys. While the most
likely outcome remains little to no accumulation at valley floor, a
lower-end impact scenario could bring around 1 to 2 inches of snow,
if mesoscale banding develops. Confidence in this outcome remains
low and forecast details will likely evolve as we approach next
week. DH/12

&&

.AVIATION...Moist, southwest flow aloft continues while a frontal
boundary remains across the area with intermittent light rain
ongoing as of 09-10z. Drier conditions are expected after 14z this
morning and through much of the day. However, flight conditions
will likely remain a mix of VFR and MVFR, with pockets of IFR as
more settled conditions return. Guidance suggests CIGs and VIS
deteriorating at most sites by 12-14z as inland valleys have a
40-80% chance for MVFR or lower conditions. Low chances also
remain for patchy fog development within the interior lowlands,
which could result in localized LIFR conditions. IFR CIGs are
likely to continue in the southern Willamette Valley as northerly
flow and moist conditions persist through this morning. Probs
trend back towards VFR this afternoon although there is still a
20-35% chance inland terminals hold onto MVFR CIGs through 00z
Monday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Conditions remain VFR as of 09z, even as a
band of light rain moves across the area. Drier conditions are
expected after 12z, but probs for MVFR CIGs increase to around
50-60% through 20-21z this afternoon. There is also around a
10-20% chance for patchy IFR fog this morning, but is unlikely to
occur if the mid to high clouds persist. VFR becomes more likely
after 21z, but there remains around a 30% chance for MVFR stratus
through this evening. Generally northwest winds around 5 kt or
less expected. /DH

&&

.MARINE...Low pressure off the northern California coast will
drift south today as a cold front drops out of the Gulf of
Alaska. Northeasterly winds will gradually ease across the waters
through tonight, but still expect gusts up to 25 kt to persist for
the outer coastal waters south of Cape Falcon through this
evening. Buoy reports maintain seas at around 9 to 11 ft early
this morning. Seas gradually subside to around 7 to 8 ft later
tonight into Monday morning.

Winds begin to shift early Monday as the front approaches the
waters and quickly pushes inland by Monday afternoon. Expect
increasing westerly winds behind this cold front with wind gusts
generally up to 20 kt. But, stronger showers that develop will
also have the potential to produce gustier winds up to 30 kt.
Surface low pressure drops south toward the south Washington or
north Oregon coast late Monday into Tuesday, bringing more south
to southwesterly winds across the waters. Another west-
northwesterly swell is expected to push into the coastal waters
Monday night, building seas to around 13 to 15 ft on Tuesday.
Seas gradually subside Wednesday into Thursday with wind gusts
most likely ranging between 15-25 kt. /DH

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A high threat for sneaker persists through
Sunday evening due to a long period westerly swell. Waves can run
up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of
their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may
lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in
or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming.
Keep children and pets away from the surf zone. Keep off of
jetties, rocks and logs near the surf zone. If you see someone
swept into the sea do not swim in after them. Call 911 and keep an
eye on them until help arrives.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     PZZ210-251>253.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ271.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ272-273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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