711
FXUS66 KPQR 281812 AAA
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
1012 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

Updated discussion and hazards.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers taper off through the morning today,
becoming dry by this evening. Gusty east winds expected through
the western Columbia River Gorge and over the Cascades and north
Oregon Coast Range tonight into Saturday morning. A weak
shortwave Saturday brings slight chances for rain Saturday,
mainly for the terrain. Cooler low temperatures Sunday and
Monday before another weak shortwave returns slight rain chances
Tuesday. Dry weather returns Wednesday with cooler morning
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Monday...The low pressure system that
approached the coast last night has stalled along the far
northern Oregon coast, just south of the Washington border. It
has slowly weakened overnight and will continue to weaken as it
slowly moves south along the northern Oregon border before
retrograding to the west back into the eastern Pacific off of
the coast of the Tillamook area. Wind gusts peaked before
midnight around 35-45 mph for the inland lowlands north of Salem
and 40-50 mph along the coast and Cascades with isolated gusts
to 50-60 mph on the wind prone beaches and headlands along the
coast. Winds are decreasing early this morning and should be
below 20 mph for most locations except for the high Cascades by
6-8 AM. Additionally, the band of moderate to heavy rain that
moved through last night is now over the Cascades with light
showers or drizzle to the west of the Cascades. This showers
will mostly dissipate through the morning hours with widespread
dry conditions by this evening.

Weak high pressure builds over the area tonight into early
Saturday with model guidance indicating surface pressure
gradients tightening over the Cascades as a surface low digs
south into Montana and Wyoming. CAMs indicate the pressure
gradient from PDX to DLS could tighten to -5 to -7 mb late
tonight through Saturday morning, which would allow breezy east
winds to develop over the Cascades, north Oregon Coast Range,
and through the western Columbia River Gorge. REFS and HREF
suggest peak wind gusts of 30-35 mph over the terrain and
through Cascade gaps, 35-45 mph through the western Columbia
River Gorge, and 25-30 mph into Troutdale and the eastern
Portland metro area. Additionally, NBM does indicate a 10-20%
chance of gusts up to 50-60 mph in the windiest areas around the
Columbia River Gorge, such as in the south Washington Cascades
at Three Corner Rock and Larch Mountain.

An upper shortwave and associated surface front are slated to
move south from western Canada into Washington and Oregon
Saturday into early Sunday, which will break down the tight
surface pressure gradients and allow east winds to weaken by
Saturday afternoon. This weak system will bring a slight chance
of showers to the area, first to the coast and high elevations
in the afternoon, spreading to the interior valleys by the
evening, with dry conditions returning by Sunday morning.
Limited precipitation is expected with this system, with amounts
mainly less than 0.1 inch over the Cascades and more of a
drizzle or light rain elsewhere. Colder arctic air will
infiltrate the region first with the building high pressure and
additionally with this weak weather system. This will allow snow
levels to fall to pass level Saturday afternoon and down to
1500-2500 ft in the far north Oregon Cascades and SW Washington
Cascades and to 3500-4500 ft in the central Oregon Cascades.
However, with overall precipitation expected to be limited, so
will any snow that does develop. Expecting less than 1-2 inches
at the high Cascades with mainly snow falling and not sticking
to roadways at or below pass level.

The cold air funneling into the area behind the shortwave will
allow for colder overnight and morning temperatures Sunday
morning and Monday morning. Sunday morning, expect widespread
low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across the interior
lowlands with only colder pockets outside of urban areas nearing
freezing. Monday morning is still expected to be the coldest
morning with a 60-80% chance of lowland locations outside of
urban areas to fall below freezing. In urban areas such as Salem
and Eugene, probabilities fall to 30-45%, and to 5-15% for the
Portland metro area and downtown Vancouver. The outskirts of the
Vancouver metro area, around and north of Highway 500 and east
of Interstate 205, probabilities increase rapidly to 40-60%.
Daytime temperatures on Sunday will be on the cooler side, as
well, with interior lowlands struggling to reach 50 degrees and
30s to 40s in the Cascades. Daytime temperatures warm slightly
on Monday as high pressure builds over the region, though
mainly for the Cascades.-03



.LONG TERM...Monday night through Thursday...Ensemble guidance
is in good agreement that the high pressure won`t last long as
another weak shortwave will move through the region from the
north on Tuesday. This will bring another round of shower
chances with limited precipitation accumulation but also warmer
temperatures due to increased cloud cover. At this point,
ensembles indicate this shortwave won`t be as deep or track as
far west as the Saturday wave, and as such it won`t bring as
much cooler air into the region. Still, ensembles are in very
good agreement that upper level ridging is once again slated to
build over the PacNW Wednesday into Thursday, bringing dry
conditions and likely clear skies. These clear skies will allow
for radiative cooling in the overnight and morning hours, so
morning low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday could once again
fall into the 30s Wednesday and Thursday morning. -03


&&

.AVIATION...Light rain showers and drizzle continue this morning,
especially in the Cascades and eastern portions of the Willamette
Valley. Largely mixed MVFR/IFR cigs remain in place with
intermittent vis restrictions, but are expected to trend toward
MVFR by the early afternoon as lingering showers end. Conditions
will ultimately improve to VFR by 00z Sat as high pressure builds
inland, driving increasing offshore flow. While easterly to
southeasterly flow through terrain gaps including the Columbia
River Gorge has brought gusty east winds to KTTD, generally
southerly flow at 5-10 kt elsewhere will turn out of the north at
Willamette Valley terminals and out of the east elsewhere by this
afternoon to evening.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR/low-end MVFR cigs improving to VFR by
mid-afternoon as cigs lift. Intermittent light rain showers this
morning may result in brief vis restrictions, before lingering
showers end in the next 3-6 hours. East to southeast winds at 5-10
kt continue through much of the period, increasing by 06z Sat to
10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. -36

&&

.MARINE...A low pressure system has stalled just south of the
mouth of the Columbia River overnight Thursday night and has
begun to weaken. It will continue to weaken through Friday,
slowly moving south along the north Oregon coast in the morning
before retrograding and moving west out into the eastern Pacific
through zones PZZ252 and PZZ272 in the afternoon. Expect
variable winds through the morning, turning east to southeast in
the afternoon in the wake of the low. Winds have been
decreasing overnight and are expected to be below 20 kts by 4 AM
PST Friday. Additionally, seas have fallen to the low teens,
and are expected to remain around 9-11 feet at 11-12 seconds
through the morning hours. Seas have lingered right around
criteria so the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 4
PM PST Friday. Conditions along the bar have fallen and are less
of a concern so the advisory has been allowed to expire.

Offshore flow will continue through Saturday with winds generally
at 10 kt or less, although areas downstream of gaps in coastal
terrain may see locally stronger east winds. As high pressure
builds Sunday into early next week, winds will shift north to
northwest at 10-15 kt. Seas will fall to 5-8 ft by Saturday and
will continue through next week. -03

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ251>253-271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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