915
FXUS66 KPQR 052238 AAB
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
237 PM PST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Showers continue throughout the region, but all lowland
areas are warm enough that further snow won`t be impactful. Areas
above 1000 feet continue to see accumulating snow, including the
Coast Range and Cascades. Temps will remain below normal through Feb.
13th with additional chances for light snow showers Friday night and
Saturday morning, albeit with very little to no snow accumulation.
Trending mainly dry Sunday through Tuesday with any
lingering snow showers likely confined to the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Friday...The surface low continues to pass
to our north through the Olympic Peninsula, and showery precipitation
continues throughout the region. Areas under 1000 feet have warmed
sufficiently that further accumulations will be little to none; while
snow may continue mixing in with rain at times under heavier showers
Wednesday afternoon and evening, these areas will not be seeing any
further impactful accumulations. As a result, the Winter Weather
Advisories for all lowland areas (coast, Willamette Valley, SW
Washington lowlands) have been expired. For areas higher than 1000
feet, including the Coast Range and Cascades and their associated
foothills, snow continues, with additional accumulations expected.
Anyone traveling over the coastal mountains, Cascades passes or
through the Columbia River Gorge should continue to expect winter
driving conditions. Precipitation continues to taper off over
Wednesday night, with the Lane, Linn, and Marion County Cascades
expected to see snow until around 4am Thursday. Temperatures will
likely be cooler Wednesday night as south winds begin to weaken going
into evening hours; the Willamette Valley and Columbia lowlands see
around a 60-90% chance of sub freezing temperatures, and a 10-30%
chance of low temps below 25 degrees. Sub-25 temperatures should
mostly be limited to SW Washington.

Thursday should generally be a slight break in precipitation, though
some leftover moisture may create a few isolated showers at times,
particularly in central Oregon which see some showers from a
different system further south off the coast of California. The Lane
County Cascades could see another round of snow, up to around 1-3
inches possible. For areas further north, generally dry conditions
can be expected. Temperatures continue be cool Thursday night with
enhanced clearing; lowland areas see around a 20-50% chance of low
temperatures under 25 degrees Friday morning, with even the coast
possibly seeing temperatures well into the 20s. This will be heavily
dependent on where exactly receives clearing of cloud cover, and cold
patches could end up rather isolated and spread out. Looking at the
potential for a Cold Weather Advisory; will be watching next few
model runs carefully to evaluate this potential.

Going into Friday, slightly warmer temperatures are expected as
southerly flow picks up again. Another weak round of precipitation is
expected Friday night going into Saturday morning. With still
relatively cool overnight temperatures, another chance at some light
snow throughout the region. Lowland areas under 1000 feet only see
around a 5-15% chance of any accumulating snowfall as per NBM
ensemble guidance, with elevated areas seeing a better chance at
maybe an inch or two.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...Trending drier during this
period. From Saturday morning through Tuesday morning, 70-90% chance
of widespread temperatures below freezing. Temperatures will continue
dropping slightly each night, with Monday night looking like the
coldest night during this period. Around a 30-50% chance of low
temperatures below 25 on Monday night in the lowlands. Cascades could
see temperatures into the teens. Early guidance indicating possibly
another push of moisture on Tuesday night, bringing back potential
for snow again. QPF looks weak at the moment, but high uncertainty at
the moment. /JLiu

&&

.AVIATION...A low pressure system near the south Washington coast
will maintain cool, showery weather within strong southwest flow
aloft today. This will generally produce a mix of MVFR and VFR
conditions across the area, with brief drops into IFR during
heavier rain/snow showers. Breezy southerly winds with gusts up to
20-30 kt continue through this afternoon. Showers are expected to
dissipate across areas north of KTMK-KSLE after 06z Thu, while
precipitation likely to continue south with more widespread MVFR
to IFR conditions possible (60-80% chance) across the southern
Willamette Valley through Thu morning.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR expected through this
evening, though occasional lowering to MVFR is possible with
continued shower activity. Expect drier conditions by 04-06z Thu,
with around a 50% chance of MVFR cigs after 10z Thu. Southerly
winds expected around 10-14 kt through 04z Thu. /DH

&&

.MARINE...A compact surface low continues to move northeast toward
the south Washington coast this afternoon. Breezy southwest winds
will gradually ease through this evening as the low dissipates as
it pushes inland. Short period seas are expected to remain around
8 to 10 ft, so will maintain the Small Craft Advisory across all
coastal waters through 10 PM tonight.

Benign conditions follow on Thursday with seas subsiding to
around 4 to 5 ft through the end of the week. The flow is expected
to turn east to northeasterly Thursday as a low comes onshore
across northern California. This may also tighten the pressure
gradient enough across the outer coastal waters to produce Small
Craft Advisory gusts Thu night into Friday. /DH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ106-107.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for ORZ119-
     123>128.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     ORZ120>122.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for WAZ203.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for WAZ208-211.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for WAZ209-
     210.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
PZZ251>253-
     271>273.
&&

$$

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