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WWPQ82 PGUM 050623
SPSPQ2

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
423 PM ChST Thu Jun 5 2025

FMZ037-PWZ002>006-060800-
Yap-Melekeok-Airai-Koror-Peleliu-Angaur-
423 PM ChST Thu Jun 5 2025

...DEVELOPING MONSOON SURGE AND DISTURBANCE TO BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND GUSTY WINDS THE REST OF THE WEEK...

An unsettled weather pattern remains in store for Palau and Yap for
the rest of the week. A tropical disturbance, known as JTWC`s Invest
92W is centered just northwest Yap Proper, and is expected to further
consolidate well northwest of Yap and Palau over the next few days. A
series of southwesterly monsoon surges will continue to pummel both
Palau and Yap as well.

Model guidance has indicated significant stalling in development
associated with Invest 92W, with little likelihood of developing into
a significant tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours as it continues
to move away from the main islands of Palau and Yap. Even so, the
southwesterly monsoon trough and associated surges will continue to
bring significant rainfall and thunder to Palau and Yap over the next
few days. Due to the lackluster nature of the current stage of the
monsoon and the aforementioned potential disturbance, variability in
areas of convective development may produce periods of little to no
weather followed by sporadic heavy showers and thunderstorms. In
addition, high uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts, but
the trend continues to indicate an additional 3 to 5 inches at
Palau, and another 4 to 6 inches at Yap over the next 48 hours. At
this time, landslides continue to be unlikely; however, if soils
become saturated, any additional rainfall may quickly become runoff
and increase mudslide risks, especially at Palau.

While trade swells have weakened, localized wind waves and a
developing southwest swell will produce choppy seas in Palau and Yap
coastal waters over much of the week. Surf will continue to increase
along south and west facing reefs of Palau and Yap, but are not
likely to become hazardous at this time.

Residents and mariners should monitor the latest forecasts for the
region at weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts and any information shared
by WSO Palau and WSO Yap for their local regions.

$$

Montvila