704
WWPQ82 PGUM 050750
SPSPQ2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
550 PM ChST Tue May 5 2026

PMZ171-172-060800-
YAP-CHUUK-
550 PM ChST Tue May 5 2026

...INVEST 93W NOW UNDER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WEST OF CHUUK...
...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS, STRONG GUSTS, AND CHOPPY SEAS LIKELY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR CHUUK STATE AND MID TO LATE WEEK FOR YAP
STATE...

Invest 93W continues to become better organized this evening near
8N149E in between Chuuk and Satawal, well southeast of the Marianas.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has upgraded the disturbance
to High with a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, meaning formation
into a tropical cyclone (tropical depression) is expected within the
next 24 hours. Current presentation of the system has the strongest
wind field located to the north, up to 25 knots, with scattered to
numerous locally heavy showers as convection continues to flare
around the center.

Current model trends support gradual strengthening over the coming
days as the system moves to the west-northwest, expected to pass well
southwest of the Marianas as it moves through Yap State. However,
guidance continues to support an asymmetric wind field to the north
of the center, creating variability in conditions across Chuuk and
Yap States through late week. Numerous to widespread heavy showers
will accompany the disturbance as it moves through western Chuuk and
Yap States through the week. Gusty winds, locally heavy showers, and
choppy seas will be the primary hazards with the disturbance, likely
making inter-island travel hazardous. If the overall wind field
becomes more symmetric late this week, potential will increase for a
westerly swell to develop south of the system and create impacts for
islands sensitive to westerly swells.

Residents and mariners should monitor the latest forecasts for the
region at weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts and any information shared
by WSO Yap and WSO Chuuk for the local regions. For more information
on Invest 93W, see bulletins issued by JTWC under WMO header ABPW10
PGTW and WTPN21 PGTW.

$$

Schank/Whisnant