345
AXPQ20 PGUM 132349
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
949 AM ChST Thu May 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A southwest-to-northeast oriented trough enters the region near
EQ134E, extending northeast to end near Eauripik in eastern Yap
State. Moderate convection is associated with this feature, producing
scattered showers and some thunderstorms within 75 to 100 miles of
the trough axis. This feature is expected to continue moving west and
then eventually dissipate during the weekend as the flow becomes more
diffusive and disintegrates said trough.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A generally light to gentle trade-wind flow across western Micronesia
continues to bulk against a ridge pattern spanning across Palau, Yap
and the Marianas, producing areas with pop-up intense showers and
thunderstorms near Palau and in Guam coastal waters. These features
quickly develop and dissipate, and are likely to continue the next
day or so.

Along the western fringes of NWS Guam`s Area of Responsibility (AOR)
sits the remnant low of former Tropical Depression Hagupit (05W),
now centered near 15N130E as it continues to dissipate under
frictional forces caused by the aforementioned ridge.

The Tsuyu front that was supposed to sit just over Honshu Japan to
bring the much-needed plum rains this reason, has instead continued
its descent into the subtropics, extending from 22N133E east-
northeast to cross between Iwo To and Minamitorishima before exiting
the region near 25N150E. Continuous rain is produced within 150 to
200 miles of the frontal axis, with a short squall producing
scattered to numerous thunderstorms within 100 miles of a line from
19N137E to 20N145E well northwest of the Marianas. While the majority
of the front will get pinched and disconnected in the subtropics
under the influence of a strong high pressure cell, the tail-end of
the frontal system is expected to continue to meander in the general
vicinity as it interacts with the aformentioned remnant low before
dissipating sometime next week.

...ITCZ...
An Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) fragment extends from 8N165E
east across Kwajalein and Majuro to end near 8N176E well east of the
Marshalls. Moderate to occasionally deep convection is associated
with this feature, producing numerous showers and some thunderstorms
within two sectors; one is just over Kwajalein, Ailinglaplap and
Jaluit, and in another sector eastward from Majuro. The ITCZ
continues to lose its southeasterly component, now remaining mostly
as a zone interacting with the leading edge of descending columns of
trade winds along its northern peripheries. In addition to
interactions with a largely disorganized disturbance centered near
Kosrae where convection has stratified over the course of the morning,
these interactions are expected to continue the next day or so
before rebuilding once again over the weekend.

$$

Montvila