519
AXPQ20 PGUM 030059
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1059 AM ChST Sun Nov 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
There is a broad tropical disturbance covering much of far western
Micronesia, JTWC`s Invest 90W. Convective bands have become more
organized around 90W, which is currently centered to the
southeast of Yap Proper near 8.5N 138.8E. JTWC has upgraded 90W`s
potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone
(tropical depression) within the next 24 hours from low to medium.
Maximum sustained surface winds are currently estimated at 15 to
20 knots, but overnight scatterometry shows some gusts in the 30
to 40 knot range, driven by heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Recent satellite imagery shows convection is focused west and
north-northeast of the center, covering Yap State and moving over
the Republic of Palau from the northeast. Model trends have 90W
lifting northwest across Yap State over the next day or so before
the system strengthens over the Philippine Sea, tracking to the
east of Luzon by the midweek. The potential for thunderstorms,
locally heavy showers, and strong gusts should diminish for Yap
and Palau on Monday.

For more information on Invest 90W, see the bulletin issued by JTWC
under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND AND SURFACE TROUGHS...
There is a broad surface trough over eastern Micronesia,
extending east-northeastward from the southwest of Pohnpei near
5N156E and passing over the northern Marshall Islands to around
9N170E. This trough intersects with a sharp trade-wind trough that
extends north from around 10N167E to the south of Wake Island
near 18N167E. Satellite imagery shows an area of strong convection
to the east of this trough axis covering the northern Ratak Chain
of the RMI. These features will shift west, bringing showers
across the Marshall Islands and later Kosrae and Pohnpei over the
next day or so, before dissipating around the midweek.

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS...
There is an upper-level trough extending southwest over a portion
of the northern Marshall Islands, entering the AOR around 23N180
and stretching to the northwest of Kwajalein Atoll near 11N165E.
Upper-level divergence southeast of the trough axis is enhancing
showers and thunderstorms associated with the sharp surface trough
north of Majuro. This upper-level trough will weaken and remain in
place over the next day or so before gradually shifting southeast.

$$

DeCou