131
AXPQ20 PGUM 030044
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1044 AM ChST Tue Dec 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A surface trough extends from 10N135E to 20N143E. PWATs surge to
near 2.5 inches following this trough passage, with the moisture
plume stretching east to 154E. This region encompasses an area of
fresh winds, widespread cloudiness, and patchy areas of strong
winds. All of this will continue to head westward through the
next several days.

Another trough, along the leading edge of the ITCZ, is passing
through Pohnpei, with fairly robust convection in the form of
showers and thunderstorms affecting much of Pohnpei state and
east-southeastward to Kosrae. Locally heavy rainfall and strong
convective wind gusts are probable in this region, as cloud top
temperatures continue to surpass -80 deg. C.

Another trough is located from just east of Kosrae, through
Majuro, to 10N175E. Here too, widespread cloudiness is present.
However, this convection is more subdued compared to its
counterpart to the west, as convection is more scattered in the
form of showers, with these showers near Majuro being the
strongest locally, where cloud top temperatures are peaking just
north of -75 deg. C.

Both troughs will continue westward, helping augment an ITCZ
fragment, through the weekend.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
A large swath of moderate to fresh winds stretch from 7N to 20N,
with a couple of degrees fluctuation between 130E and the Date
Line. An embedded area of strong winds are located northeast of
Chuuk State and east of Guam and Rota, with a larger, more
pronounced area crossing the Date Line. Here, elevated seas are
common, with most areas seeing seas of 8 to 12 feet, except with
the stronger winds crossing the date Line, where 10 to 14 foot
seas are probable.

An active trade-wind pattern looks to continue into next week,
with some variations in the wind speed likely as a reorganizing
synoptic pattern alters the strength of the pressure gradient from
time to time.

...ITCZ...
An ITCZ is centered near 8N and extends from just west of Pohnpei
eastward to across the Date Line. Here, widespread cloudiness and
scattered showers, with a few thunderstorms are located within
200 miles of this axis. The ITCZ is forecast to continue westward,
with some of its moisture getting pulled north into the Marianas
from time to time. This looks to be the case over the next few
days, with the ITCZ becoming a fragment during its westward
journey. However, by the middle of next week, a renewed surge of
the ITCZ is expected to develop near the Date Line.

$$

Doll