827
AXPQ20 PGUM 090215
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1215 PM ChST Sat May 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
At 700 AM ChST, Tropical Storm Hagupit (05W) was centered near
8.9N 136.6E, or 75 miles northwest of Ngulu and 110 miles west-
southwest of Yap. TS Hagupit is moving westward at around 10 mph,
away from Yap Proper and Ngulu in western Yap State. Maximum
sustained winds remain at 40 mph. Himawari visible satellite
continues to show a disorganized, weak storm with moderate to deep
convection focused along its northeastern and eastern flanks,
covering Yap and Ngulu. Isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms
are also seen to its southwest and south, over Babeldaob, Palau. A
broad band of showers and thunderstorms are seen further to the east,
extending from roughly east of Sorol, Yap, southward to the
Equator, within the trailing convergence into TS Hagupit. Hagupit
is expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest
through tonight as it heads into the Philippine Sea, remaining a
weak tropical storm into at least Sunday. The Tropical Storm
Warning was cancelled this morning for Yap Proper and Ngulu, as
tropical storm force winds are no longer expected with TS Hagupit
moving away.

For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the
National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A weak tropical disturbance, dubbed Invest 95W by the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), was located at 5.7N 155.0E,
embedded within a broad trough extending roughly halfway between
Chuuk and Pohnpei. Numerous to widespread heavy showers and
scattered thunderstorms are seen along the eastern portion of the
trough, just over Pohnpei and to the west, well displaced from the
low-level circulation center which can be seen in Himawari
visible satellite imagery. Invest 95W is rated as a sub-low,
meaning that development into a tropical cyclone is not expected
over the next few days. 95W looks to lift west-northwest across
Chuuk State and eastern Yap State over the next few days,
promoting showers over central Micronesia and potentially near
Guam and Rota, with little to no development expected.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A poorly-defined Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) extends east into
the region at 5N130E, curving northeast to extend over Koror and
into Tropical Storm Hagupit. Showers and thunderstorms are seen
within the northeast portion of the NET associated with the
tropical storm, but the NET axis itself is convectively quiet.
The NET will continue to lift north and fall apart over the next
day or so as it follows the motion of TS Hagupit.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A very broad trough is seen over central Micronesia, extending
south-southeast between Chuuk and Pohnpei, from 10N155E to around
EQ147E. Invest 95W, discussed above, is embedded within this
trough near 5.7N 155W with visible satellite showing a weak
surface circulation with no convection associated with it. Along
the northeast portion of the trough, showers and thunderstorms are
seen within the strong trade-wind convergence into it, covering
much of the area between Weno, Chuuk, and Pohnpei. This trough
looks to shift west-northwest across Chuuk and eastern Yap States
and promote showers across central Micronesia, potentially lifting
near the Marianas by the latter half of the coming week.

Farther east, a shallow trade-wind trough is seen extending south
across Kosrae, from 7N163E to EQ162E, with scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms extending along its northern
half where convergence is stronger. Even farther east, another
weak trough is just west of Majuro, extending southwest from
around 9N171E to 1N166E. Scattered showers are focused roughly
along the trough axis. These features will slowly shift west over
the next few days and help maintain an unsettled pattern across
eastern and central Micronesia.

Far to the north, a few weak transient troughs are seen within
the broader trade wind flow, supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to the south of Minamitorishima, and to the
east, near and over Wake Island. Such features will continue
westward and dissipate over the next day or so.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
A trade-wind surge continues across the region, maintained by the
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the north and
disturbances to the south, including TS Hagupit and, to a lesser
degree, Invest 95W. The overnight scatterometry shows the trade-
wind surge has extended farther west of the Marianas, with fresh
trades seen from roughly 138E extending east all the way to the
Date Line. Near the Marianas, this area extends from around 10N
to 20N, and closer to the Date Line, expanding from around 8N to
25N. Areas of embedded strong trade winds are seen mainly over
and north of eastern and central Micronesia. Satellite imagery
shows patches of scattered showers across this broad area, focused
where localized wind speed convergence is stronger. The trade-
wind surge will continue over the next few days, diminishing early
next week as TS Hagupit dissipates and the subtropical ridge
weakens slightly to the north.

$$

DeCou