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TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1203 PM ChST Fri Nov 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) extends across the southwestern
corner of the region, passing through an embedded disturbance
(formerly Invest 91W) southwest of Koror near 5N131E, stretching
east-southeastward, ending near EQ152E. Convergent trades north of
this feature are generating several thunderstorms across Palau
and south of Ngulu in Yap State. Near the eastern extent of the
feature, westerlies south of the NET axis converge into the
trade-wind pattern, generating another area of moderate to deep
convection and widespread cloudiness. This is largely across open
waters south of western Chuuk State to the equator. The NET is
expected to remain fairly stationary over the next day or so,
although the embedded disturbance is expected to drift westward
and gradually weaken.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A trade-wind trough is moving through western Chuuk State and
entering Yap State, stretching northwestward from 5N151E to
9N145E. This is part of a fairly active area of the region,
as this feature pushes up against the NET pattern, generating
scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. This trough
is expected to propagate north of the NET axis, maintaining
showers across eastern Yap State over the next day or so.

Well east of Wake, a surface trough is interacting with a
Tropical Upper-Troposheric Trough (TUTT), generating scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms overnight from 14N178E to 18N175E.
However, convection started to trend down earlier this morning,
likely due to the overall weak surface feature and gradual
decoupling with the upper-level support.

Several troughs are found north and northwest of the Intertropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ), generating patchy showers across Chuuk,
Pohnpei, and the northern Marshalls. These troughs extend from
3N156E to 8N151E, from 5N161E to 7N156E, and from 8N156E to
11N165E. Near the Marianas, a couple of trade-wind troughs are
producing spotty showers from 15N141E to 20N147E and 13N147E to
14N147E. The first trough extends into the far northern Marianas,
while the other trough is southeast of coastal waters. These
features are expected to move westward with little change in
intensity.

TUTT...
The TUTT extends southwestward into the region near 18N180 and
stretches across the northern Marshalls and north of Pohnpei to
end near 9N154E. As mentioned in the previous section, the TUTT
interacted with a weak surface trough, generating an area of
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms overnight east of Wake,
near the Date Line. However, recent satellite trends and a lack
of substantial surface features near the TUTT axis shows a
downtrend with associated convection. The TUTT is expected to
become oriented east to west in the coming days with a cutoff
upper low in the western extent of the feature.

UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...
A broad upper-level anticyclone is centered north of the Marianas
near 21N146E. This high pressure feature continues to bring a
regional subsident flow, limiting mid- and upper-level moisture
in the troposphere. This supports an overall drier trade-wind
pattern across the Marianas expected with over the next few days
as this upper-level high and ENE-extending ridge remains nearby.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ extends westward into region from 6N180, through Majuro
and Kosrae, then curves southwestward, meeting the equator at
158E. Satellite imagery shows deep convection within 200 miles of
the ITCZ axis and scatterometry data shows 15 to 25 kt northeast
trades aiding convergence as well. The ITCZ is expected to remain
the main weather feature in eastern Micronesia, stretching into
Pohnpei and Chuuk over the weekend.

$$

IC