129
AXPQ20 PGUM 150121
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1121 AM ChST Sat Nov 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) extends from a weak circulation
centered near 5N130E, extending southeast to 1N138E, then turns east
to end near 1N150E. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
found north of the trough, extending southeast across Palau to end
near 1N152E. The circulation and NET are expected to continue to
move west over the coming days with little change to a slight
weakening of the intensity.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A weak trade-wind trough is found southeast of Weno, Chuuk,
extending north-northeast from near 1N150E to end near 8N155E. Only
patchy showers are found with this trough. The trough is expected to
slowly move west over the coming days, interacting with the eastern
end of the NET Sunday.

Another trade-wind trough is found between Pohnpei and Kosrae,
extending northeast from near 4N160E to end near 9N165E. This trough
is interacting with the ITCZ to generate scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms from Kosrae to southeast of
Pohnpei. The trough will continue to move west-northwest over the
next couple of days, increasing convection across Pohnpei and
eventually, Chuuk.

A third trade-wind trough is found between Majuro and Kwajalein,
extending north from near 4N170E to end near 8N170E. Scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found between
Kwajalein and Majuro. The trough will continue moving west,
interacting with the ITCZ, spreading increased convection over
Kwajalein and into Kosrae.

The last trade-wind trough is found just west of the Date Line,
extending north-northeast from near 6N179E to end near 12N180.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along this
trough where it is interacting with the ITCZ. The trough will
continue westward over the next few days, maintaining increased
convection across Kosrae and Pohnpei as it progresses.

TUTT...
A weakening TUTT crosses into the AOR near 18N180, extending west-
southwest to end near 9N153E. Only spotty clouds and showers are
found along the TUTT. The TUTT is expected to remain quasi-stationary
as it slowly weakens over the next several days.

OTHER SYSTEMS...

UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...
A broad upper-level anticyclone is centered northwest of the
Marianas near 20N141E. This upper-level high continues to produce
subsident flow over the region, north of 10N. This will maintain an
overall dry trade-wind pattern over the next few days as this upper-
level ridge remains over the area.

...ITCZ...
An ITCZ extends eastward from southeast of Weno, Chuuk near 6N154E,
to just south of Pohnpei near 6N159E, north of Kosrae to just south
of Majuro near 6N171E to beyond the Date Line near 8N. Patchy clouds
and showers are found along the ITCZ west of Pohnpei, with scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from near Pohnpei to
the Date Line. Convection is enhanced in areas where trade-wind
troughs are interacting with the ITCZ. The ITCZ is expected to
remain quasi-stationary over the next few days, with little change
in intensity until around the middle of next week when the ITCZ is
expected to begin to dissipate.

$$

Kleeschulte