141
AXPQ20 PGUM 010056
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1056 AM ChST Fri Aug 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A southwest monsoon of 20 to 30 knots persists, mainly north of
20N from 130E to 150E, as they feed into a pair of tropical
circulations north of 25N. The convection signature is much more
disorganized today, but the winds and waves are higher in this
region than locations to the south through east.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
One trade-wind trough extends north-northwest from 2N160E to just
east of Pohnpei, before arcing west well north of Chuuk, bending
back southwest to a weak circulation southeast of Guam at
11.6N 147E. Another trough extends north from this circulation to
the east of Saipan. The trough near the Marianas has been
responsible for stratiform light to moderate rainfall, with
scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms forming along the arcing trough. Both of these
systems are forecast to move slowly west the next few days with no
further organization of the circulation expected.

Another elongated trough extends east-northeast from south of
Kosrae to east of Kosrae, then just south and east of Majuro
before continuing east as the ITCZ axis. Scattered convection
currently occurring is forecast to persist the next few days as it
also moves west.

TUTT...
The TUTT axis remains the same as yesterday for the most part,
extending from 24N180 through Wake Island to 14N158E, turning
south and ending in a col over Pohnpei. Meanwhile, an upper-level
high has formed northeast of Majuro at 10N180. Divergence between
these systems are helping ventilate convection along the troughs
mentioned above via enhanced vertical velocities, with a few
thunderstorms mixed in as a result. Farther northeast, widespread
clouds and showers are found from Wake Island northeast to the
Date Line.

...ITCZ...
Aside from troughs locally enhancing convection along their axis,
the ITCZ remains anchored between 4N and 9N from northeast of
Kosrae, through Majuro, to beyond the Date Line. The models
continue to suggest periodic "bursts" of lift and moisture with
embedded disturbances from Chuuk eastward through the weekend.
After that, the ITCZ looks to become very weak in the same general
region, if not dissolve completely for the time being.

$$

Doll