279
AXPQ20 PGUM 160104
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1104 AM ChST Sun Aug 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A broad circulation, Invest 92W, sits in an E to W elongated surface
trough and is centered NNW of Pohnpei near 10N157E. The system
remains fairly stationary as it struggles to consolidate but is
expected to start moving slowly WNW. 92W has been upgraded to a low
by JTWC, meaning development into a tropical cyclone is unlikely
within 24 hours. Widespread heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms
are found to the E of the center where scatterometry suggests winds
along the gust front are near 34 knots. Shower coverage is numerous
to the S and W of the center, and isolated to scattered N of the
center where winds remain the weakest. As Invest 92W turns towards
the Marianas it will likely bring unsettled weather to the islands.
Uncertainty in both track and intensity remains high, but general
consensus is for only gradual development with 92W passing through
as a disturbance or as strong as a tropical depression.

Invest 93W has moved N of 25N and is now out of our forecast region.
Scattered showers from the southern end of the system will move out
within the next day.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough has moved S and weakened slightly, now entering
our region at 21N130E. The trough extends SE before turning E a ways
N of Yap and going through the Marianas. The windflow then splits N
into 93W and ESE into 92W and beyond, with westerly winds visible
unusually far past the Dateline. As 92W becomes more dominant, the
monsoon trough is expected to connect more clearly with the system
in the next few days. For now, convection remains strongest over the
Philippine Sea near 130E where a small pocket of numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms remains from what was a much larger train of
storms yesterday. NE of this convection, numerous showers have
developed along the southern end of a weak circulation. Models
indicate this circulation having only gradual development over the
next few days as it moves slowly NW and out of our region.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A surface trough extends NNE from Invest 92W and ending near 20N.
Isolated to scattered showers are seen along this trough. The trough
will move W over the next couple of days, rotating around 92W, with
little change in intensity.

An elongated trough extends E from Invest 92W toward Majuro, where
it turns ESE to beyond the Dateline near 8N. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found with the trough over the Marshall
Islands. This trough is expected to feed into 92W over the next few
days.

$$

Ogle