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TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1026 AM ChST Fri Sep 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
Typhoon Dujuan (24W) has moved out of Guam`s AOR. A weak/broad
circulation continues to remain quasi-stationary north-northwest
of Majuro near Utirik. Only shallow convection is occurring near
the broad circulation. This feature is expected lift north-
northwest then northwest over the next few days as it continues to
gradually organize, possibly heading towards Wake Island.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough has retreated some today to the west, entering
the AOR at 16N130E and extending to near Minamitorishima. South
of there, a narrow corridor of convection extends from just
northwest of Koror and Yap to just southeast of Guam, curling
north near 151E, before wrapping into Typhoon Dujuan, which is
located northeast of Iwo To. We`ve seen this retreat before, with
the last time being a few weeks before Super Typhoon Bavi. Back in
early late June/early July when the Monsoon Trough retreated, it
did so for only a few days as a tropical system headed north out
of Guam`s AOR. Then, the trough settled back south at a gradual
pace, eventually extending to Majuro and across the Date Line. It
wouldn`t be surprising to see this scenario play out over the next
week to 10 days. Stay tuned!

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A surface trough extends northeast from the broad circulation
near Utirik northeastward to 18N176E. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are developing near this feature, and this will
continue the next few days as the trough heads northwest.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A narrow "ribbon" of convergence is sandwiched between a ridge
axis over Pohnpei and the broad circulation near Utirik/Majuro. In
this "ribbon" of surface convergence PWATs increase to ~2.5
inches. This feature and its associated scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, that currently stretch from north of
Pohnpei to west of Kosrae, will continue to move slowly westward
over the next few days. This takes the better rainfall potential
west with it, arriving in Pohnpei later today and tonight.

$$

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