799
AXPQ20 PGUM 210017
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1017 AM ChST Fri Feb 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) has drifted south of the equator
along with all convection associated with it. The NET is not expected
to move back into the area for at least the next several days.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
There are a few trade-wind troughs evident across the region, though
little convection is associated with any of the troughs. The first
trough is seen between Majuro and Kwajalein, stretching north from
near 5N170E to near 12N170E. Patchy clouds and a few showers are
associated with this trough. The next trough is found near Pohnpei,
stretching northward from near 4N160E to near 9N160E. Patchy clouds
and isolated showers are seen on satellite with this trough. The
third trough is found just east of Weno, Chuuk, extending northward
from 3N152E to 9N152E. Isolated showers are present west of the
trough, in the area of deeper moisture south of 5N. These three
troughs will continue to move west over the next few days, remaining
relatively weak with little change in convection.

The last trough is found south of Wake Island, extending north from
near 11N165E to 17N166E. Patchy clouds and spotty showers are
associated with this trough. This trough is expected to continue to
move west over the coming days, beginning to interact with a
weakening shear line that is present well east of the Marianas. This
will result in increased convection along the shear line.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A decaying cold front extends west-southwest across 24N180 to just
south of Wake Island near 18N167E. It then continues west-southwest
as a shear line to end south of Yap near 7N139E. Extensive cloudiness
with rain and patchy showers is evident on the latest visible
satellite along and north of the cold front. Cloudiness with patchy
showers is seen along the shear line to south of Guam. Enhanced
convergence along the shear line southeast to south of Yap is
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the
western end of the shear line. The front and shear line are expected
to drift east-southeast over the next few days, with the front
continuing to weaken and transitioning into a shear line. The shear
line will begin to interact with a trade-wind trough, discussed
above, with increasing showers. Latest CIMMS MIMIC Precipitable
Water product shows increased moisture with the shear line, though
still limited, with most the PWATs below 1.8 inches north of 10N.
Therefore, convection looks to remain limited to only showers though
a thunderstorm or two is not out of the question.

$$

Kleeschulte