Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
306 AXPQ20 PGUM 210132 TWDPQ Tropical Weather Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 1132 AM ChST Fri Aug 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL CYCLONES... Tropical Storm Saudel (17W) is currently centered near 14.1 degrees north latitude, and 152.5 degrees east longitude, which is 250 miles east-southeast of Saipan and 305 miles east of Guam. Saudel currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, and is expected to intensify over the next few days, possibly becoming a typhoon Saturday. Saudel is currently moving northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to maintain this general course and speed through Saturday. The general forecast track takes the center of Saudel near Pagan and Agrihan Saturday and Saturday night as a typhoon. Torrential rain and isolated thunderstorms are found within 150 miles of the center of Saudel. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are found farther out associated with the monsoon trough. For more information please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM. ...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS... MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the region at 22N130E then extends southeastward to 10N142E into a weak circulation. The monsoon trough extends east-northeast south of Guam and into TS Saudel at 14N149E. The monsoon trough then continues east-southeast to a weak circulation within the eastern Marshall Islands near 6N172E. The trough finally extends east to 7N180 where it exits the region. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are seen across the monsoon trough, with the heaviest showers located over Yap this morning. The monsoon trough is expected to show little change of intensity over the next few days, but is likely to shift northward along with Saudel, especially near Western Micronesia. This will involve the Marianas in the monsoon activity once again, while probably lifting it north of Palau and Yap once again also. SURFACE TROUGHS... A surface trough extends from 25N153E westward to 24N150E before curving to the west-northwest towards Iwo-To at 25N141E. This trough is associated with Subtropical Depression 96W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the trough. This trough will lift to the northwest out of our region tonight or tomorrow. OTHER SYSTEMS... A weak circulation is seen just east of Ulithi. It is connected to Tropical Storm Saudel along the monsoon trough. Deep convection associated with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across the western half of the circulation over Yap. This feature will generally move northwest over the coming days before turning towards the east. The second circulation is located over Majuro near 7N171E, connected to the monsoon trough. The feature looks to remain weak as it lifts northward over the next couple of days. Scattered showers with possible thunderstorms are seen across Majuro and the Marshall Islands near the circulation. && $$ Williams