065
AXPQ20 PGUM 060057
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1057 AM ChST Sun Jul 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A weak tropical circulation has formed south of Chuuk near 3.4N
152E. This circulation is fairly broad and disorganized.
Convection has been intense, especially on the western flanks of
the system where cloud top temperatures have eclipsed -80 deg. C
with a few thunderstorms developing. The models take this feature
west-southwest the next few days as it gets absorbed into the
ambient flow with continued disorganized, but scattered
convection.

A TUTT axis extends from east of the Date Line to another upper-
low near 25N170E, with the TUTT axis curving southwest through a
col east of the Marianas at 160E, continuing through Chuuk before
ending near EQ150E. Scattered convection is found near the TUTT
cell and along its axis. The models show the TUTT cells will
gradually move west over the next few days with another cell
possible forming well northwest of the northern most CNMI,
possibly near 22N140E, with the TUTT axis retaining a similar
orientation.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A surface trough extends northwest from the circulation south of
Chuuk, ending just east of Guam. Another surface trough extends
due north from the same circulation through the eastern coastal
waters of Chuuk, with a third "spoke"/surface trough extending
northeast from the circulation through Pohnpei, ending just
northeast of there. This disturbance and its associated surface
troughs are forecast to weaken over the next few days with the
disturbance turning west-southwest. However, there should be
sufficient remnant convergence for scattered showers to persist.

Another surface trough is upstream, currently departing Majuro,
where scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring.
This feature will head off to the west, passing through the
remainder of Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk, with a similar
convective coverage (locally higher) expected.

There`sd also a surface trough southeast of Majuro that`ll head
west, following the trough ahead of it. This feature has numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms developing, which looks to remain
the case as it heads west the next few days.

$$

Doll