784
AXPQ20 PGUM 310104
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1104 AM ChST Fri Jan 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) extends from near EQ150E to
3N130E, continuing westward to south of Mindanao. Widely scattered
showers with an occasional flash of lightning observed in this
convection. This feature is forecast to remain stationary over
the next few days with a similar convective pattern.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...

The first trade-wind trough is located just east of
Kapingamarangi, providing increased rainfall potential over the
next 18 to 24 hours, with perhaps a heavier shower or two
possible. This feature will continue westward over the open ocean
the next few days.

A fairly-pronounced trough in the trades is passing over Kosrae,
sparking numerous shower coverage to persist. This feature is
forecast to continue westward, bringing heavier rainfall to
perhaps Pohnpei, but more so Nukuoro and Sapwuafik over the next
24 to 48 hours.

A third trough is crossing the Date Line with some widely
scattered convection associated with it. This may briefly
increase rainfall potential for Majuro and portions of the FSM
over the weekend, as it continues moving westward for the next
several days, affecting Pohnpei and surrounding locations early
next week.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
A pronounced surge in the trades encompasses a good chunk of the
Philippine Sea, mainly centered between 10N and 17N from the
Philippines eastward to just east of Guam and the CNMI, where
strong to gale force winds are creating hazardous conditions to
small craft. Here, seas are generally in the 10 to 13 foot range.

Surrounding this region is an area of fresh to strong winds that
"buffer" the northern edge by 2 degrees from 130E to 150E, while
generally extending south to the NET. Further east, moderate to
fresh winds are common between 5N and 15N from 150E to the Date
Line. This encompasses Chuuk, Eastern Micronesia, and most of the
FSM, with seas of 7 to 10 feet.

As an area of high pressure continues moving eastward through the
central Pacific, this will allow the higher winds to continue to
expand eastward through the middle of next week as the pressure
gradient tightens.

...ITCZ...
Yesterday`s ITCZ has dissipated and is no longer present. However,
a corridor of deep moisture is centered in an area of trade
convergence centered between the Equator and 4N from 130E to
158E, before it curves northeast through Kosrae to south of
Pingelap. As this axis of deeper moisture continues to move
westward through early next week, there`s some indication the
"tail end" of this moisture may briefly extend eastward towards
Pohnpei briefly over the weekend, but little resurgence in the
ITCZ is seen thereafter.

$$

Doll