500
AXPQ20 PGUM 190002
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1002 AM ChST Wed Nov 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A NET extends west-northwest from EQ155E to 4N130E. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing along and south
of this feature, mainly from 130E to 141E. This feature is
expected to become more convectively-active the next few days as
the nearby ITCZ strengthens.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A surface trough extends north-northeast from Nukuoro near 4N155E
to west of Pohnpei, ending near 7N156E. Widespread cloud cover
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring,
which will continue to be the case as it heads west the next few
days.

Another surface trough extends northeast from 4N161E through
Kosrae, ending west of Majuro near 7N168E. Here too, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring, which is also
expected to continue the next few days as it heads west.


TRADE-WIND SURGE...
A trade-wind surge has crossed the Date Line, currently located
east of 165E centered between 12N and 17N. Here, sustained winds
near 20 knots are occurring with satellite estimates showing waves
in the 7 to 10 foot range.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
The shear line mentioned yesterday has weakened and is no longer
identifiable in visible satellite imagery.

Otherwise, an upper trough enters Guam`s AOR at 12N180 and extends
west to an upper low northeast of Pohnpei near 11N164E. The
trough then extends west to a weak and largely convectively-void
circulation near 10N151E, with the trough then extending
southwest to 5N146E, where it ends. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring near the Pohnpei upper low, mainly on
the west throug northeast side of the circulation. Otherwise,
convection in the form of scattered showers extends south of the
trough axis with the ITCZ being the main focus for convection.

Over the next few days, the two upper lows will merge and head
west towards the marianas, increasing shower and thunderstorm
potential there towards the end of the week.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ is attempting to refocus, centered between 3N and 9N,
with widely-scattered showers (and a few thunderstorms locally
mixed in) starting near 142E, where it merges with the NET, and
then extends to the Date Line and beyond. The models show this
feature will continue to strengthen the next several days, with
locations between 142E and 165E seeing the better coverage of
convection.

$$

Doll