931
AXPQ20 PGUM 060118
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1118 AM ChST Sat Jun 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A persistent LLCC continues to have improving convective coverage
near the center, which has become stationary (the LLCC) near
8N140E. This feature looks to remain quasi-stationary for a day or
so, before lifting off to the west-northwest. In the mean time,
it`ll bring scattered convection to Yap.

Another circulation has developed northeast of Chuuk near 10N153E.
Here too convection is developing near the LLCC, and this center
will slowly move west the next few days while possible becoming
absorbed into the NET. Until then, scattered to locally numerous
convection will continue to develop near the LLCC.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
Today the NET enters Guam`s AOR at 8N130E, similar to the past
several days. It then continues east to a circulation southeast
of Yap that has become stationary near 8N1450E. The NET then
continues east-northeast to a new circulation that has developed
northeast of Chuuk near 10N153E. The NET then turns southeast and
ends at EQ160E. Convection is most prevalent along and south of
the NET, which has expanded eastward today, which was not
expected. The MJO will be moving into a more favorable position
over the next few weeks, and it`s possible the variable NET and
ITCZ strength as with the LLCC`s could be the atmosphere`s "hint"
at things to come, as it "preconditions itself". If this suspicion
is true, forecast uncertainty may increase until the patterns
become more established. With that said, look for scattered to
locally numerous convection to continue near and south of the NET
the next few days.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
The first surface trough in the trades extends northeast from the
Chuuk circulation from 10N153E to 15N160E, with a second trough
upstream stretching from between Ujelang and Ujae in the RMI,
northward to near Wake Island. These first two troughs have
convection confined to 13N and locations south of there along the
trough. This is due to better moisture and surface convergence.
This looks to continue the next few days as the troughs head
west.

A third trough stretches from southeast of Makin to Jaluit, then
just east of Kwajalein. Here, convection is scattered to locally
numerous, and this will likely continue the next few days as well
as this feature heads west.

TUTT...
The TUTT has evolved into more of a mid-lattitude trough extension
and extends southwest from 25N175E through Wake Island to a
developing cell near 16N160E. The trough axis then continues
west-southwest to southeast of Guam, where it ends. South and east
of this trough convection has increased along some embedded
surface troughs mentioned above, as they`ve helped pull deeper
moisture northward, allowing for better convective
development/coverage as this moisture interacts with good
divergence aloft that the trough axis has provided.

Just to the east of this is another trough/"TUTT Hybrid" that
stretches from 23N177E southwestward to 10N151E. Here too the
trough is interacting with it`s surface reflection to advect
moisture northward, with improved convective coverage. This looks
to continue for another 24 to 48 hours before the upper troughs
become displaced from the surface troughs.

ITCZ...
In a surprise move by mother nature, the ITCZ has re-established
itself and is clearly evident in streamline analysis from the Yap
circulation eastward to Pohnpei, before turning southeast through
Kosrae, then back east to 5N180 and beyond. Scattered convection,
some locally intense, continues to develop along the NET/ITCZ
composite from Yap to Kosrae, and then along and south of the ITCZ
from Kosrae eastward to the Date Line. It`s unclear if this will
persist and for how long, so stay tuned!

$$

Doll