819
AXPQ20 PGUM 100053
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1053 AM ChST Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
Today the NET enters Guam`s AOR at 2N130E and extends east in a
wavy form to a broad/weak circulation near 2N138E. The NET then
continues east to another weak circulation southeast of Kosrae
near 2N165E, with the NET ending at EQ170E. Pockets of widely-
scattered showers continue to develop, especially near the
periphery of the two circulations. No development is expected from
the circulations over the next few days, with the NET positioning
and convective behavior expected to remain the same.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A fairly-pronounced surface trough extends northeast from Chuuk
near 8N152E to 20N160E (well west-northwest of Wake Island) where
it ends at a col. Scattered showers are seen along this trough
axis between 10N and 19N, with little convective development
elsewhere. This pattern will continue the next few days as the
trough heads west towards the Marianas.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
An upper-level low is located northeast of Majuro near 11N176E.
This low which was moving north yesterday in a "wobbling form" has
picked up speed as it headed southwest initally, before turning
west, like it`s current movement. A trough extends west-southwest
from this low to Kosrae, near 5N153E. Divergence south and east of
the trough axis is fostering scattered to locally numerous shower
development, with a few thunderstorms also occurring. Closer to
the circulation of the low, scattered showers are occurring along
the periphery of this circulation. The models show this low
halting its westward progression over the next 24 hours, as a
zonal flow to the north of the region builds south to near 25 N to
30N. At this time the increasing wind fields shunt the upper low
and trough axis to east of the Date Line as it dissolves by the
the start of next week.

A cold front enters Guam`s AOR at 25N163E and extends southwest to
a col at 19N155E, where it transitions into a shear line. It then
passes through Pagan in the CNMI in a west-southwest fashion,
before exiting Guam`s AOR at 14N130. Scattered to locally numerous
showers are occurring immediately along and behind the shear line
due to good directional and speed convergence of the winds at the
surface. This feature will continue to settle south in a quasi-
stationary form the next few days with a similar
convective/stratiform (convective along and stratiform behind the
shear line) fashion.

The trade-wind surge mentioned the past few days has weakened in
strength and decreased in size. This feature is now relegated to
between 5N and 17N east of 175E. Seas of 6 to 9 feet and winds of
15 to 20 knots remain consistent in this area. This feature will
continue to weaken in the coming days, with today being the likely
last mention of this feature.

$$

Doll