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AXPQ20 PGUM 180018
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1018 AM ChST Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) enters the AOR near 4N130E,
meandering east-southeastward to near 1N151E, then continues
eastward to a buffer zone near 1N168E. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen south of the trough from 130E to
140E. Additionally, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
found north of the trough east of 138E, between 2N and 6N. The NET
looks to weaken and drift southeastward of 150E, and remain quasi-
stationary as it slowly weakens along the remainder of the NET.

SURFACE TROUGHS...
A surface trough is seen over the northwest corner of the AOR, just
east of Iwo To. It extends north-northeast from near 21N141E to
beyond 25N near 143E. Convergence to the west of the trough is
generating a band of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
between 22N and 25N west of the trough. This trough looks to slowly
move west over the next few days, weakening as it moves into an area
of surface ridging.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A trade-wind trough is seen just east of Palau, extending northwest
from near 4N140E to end near 10N135E. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found with the trough over Palau. The trough and
associated convection looks to continue to move west-southwest over
the next few days as the trough slowly weakens.

Another trade-wind trough is found just south of Wake Island,
extending south from near 18N167E to end near 14N166E. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are found west of the trough. This trough
will move west, toward the Marianas over the next few days and is
expected to slowly strengthen as it approaches the islands.

The last trade-wind trough is found over the Marshall Islands,
extending north-northeast from near 6N171E to end near 14N176E. This
trough is interacting with upper-level divergence associated with a
TUTT low to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the northern Marshall Islands. The trough will continue to move
west and likely weaken as it loses the upper-level support.

TUTT...
A weakening TUTT enters the area near 20N180, extending southwest to
a TUTT low centered near 14N170E, then continues west-southwest to
end near 10N154E. Patchy clouds and showers are found along most of
the TUTT. However, divergence associated with the TUTT low is
interacting with a trade-wind trough to produce enhanced convection
over the northern Marshall Islands, with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms found between 9N and 13N from 170E to 177E.
The TUTT and low look to remain quasi-stationary as the TUTT
continues to slowly weaken over the next few days.

OTHER SYSTEMS...

STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEAR LINE...
A quasi-stationary front enters the AOR near 25N180, extending west-
southwest to near 22N170E, then continues west as a shear line to
end near 20N148E. Cloudiness and patchy showers are found up to 200
miles north of the front. Cloudiness, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found up to 150 miles north of the shear line,
east of 161E, with patchy clouds and showers seen from 161E westward.
The front and shear line will continue to slowly drift east and
weaken over the coming days.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ has retreated east of the Date Line. Although the ITCZ is no
longer in the AOR, this is expected to change over the next few days.
The ITCZ is expected to redevelop westward over the next few days,
bringing increased convection to the Marshall Islands and eventually
Kosrae and Pohnpei.

$$

Kleeschulte